Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
1pm - Atromitos v Panionios - 1.45 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
1pm - Lille v Montpellier - 2.02 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
130pm - Achilles 29 v VVV - 1.6 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
130pm - Groningen v Feyenoord - 1.92 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
2pm - Djurgardens v Assyriska - 1.35 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
2pm - Parma v Verona - 1.77 home
Standout stats
- Verona have won the last 3 head to heads, 2002, 2011 and 3-2 at home this season
- That 3-2 win was care of 2 late Verona penalties
- this is 6th v 7th and ordinarily one team would not be such a short price when 2 near neighbours position-wise meet.
Parma
- undefeated in 14 matches
- 5 draws and 2 wins in their last 7 at home so not making home advantage count, despite not losing.
- have failed to score in only 2 of their last 13 matches
- have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches
- Parma have lost at home to 1st and 2nd
- have scored and conceded in 6 of the 7 home matches played at home to 13th and above
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home
- 3 0-0's at home all came v 15th and lower
- have scored a whopping 9 goals at home in the 30th-45th minutes , so perhaps a 0-0 halftime score lay entering the 1/2 hour mark if still 0-0
- no opponent has led at halftime at Parma
Hellas Verona
- only 1 defeat in 5 matches
- have won 3 of their last 4 away matches 1-3, 1-2, and 2-3
- have only kept 4 clean sheets this season
- have lost away to 1st, 2nd , 4th and 5th and are playing 6th today. Losses to Fiorentina 4-3 and Inter Milan 4-2 away suggest Verona go down with a bang and not a whimper.
- 75% of their away goals are over 2.5 goals
- 1/3rd of their away matches are 0-0 at halftime
- only 2 0-0's this season
- have conceded 7 and 6 goals in each quarter hour on either side of halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- lay the 0-0 halftime score if 0-0 after 30 minutes. A chance there may be some last 1/2 hour goal action
- Verona tend to find the best too much away but could score in defeat.
- parma keep drawing at home which is a worry. They don't lose though so perhaps lay Hellas Verona if they score first .
- Verona have only kept 4 clean sheets all season so expectation is for them to concede
2pm - Sampdoria v Livorno - 1.82 home
Standout stats
- only 1 recent relevant Seria A match saw Sampdoria win 1-2, but both of their goals were penalties and both sides scored in the 90th minute
- this is 12th v 18th. Will we see a defensive show from relegation threatened Livorno?
Sampdoria
Profitable in-play opportunities
2pm - Servette v Locarno - 1.37 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
230pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Tomsk - 1.26 home
Standout stats
- this is 1st v 15th
- 2011 and 2013 last 2 head to heads were 4-0 and 0-3 to Zenit
- 40-40-39 that's the points of the top 3 so every match, particularly at home and when expected to win, must be won
- this is the first match since the winter break so is fraught with danger!
Zenit
- Zenit for me are in my "dodge-pot" shortlist along with Victoria Azarenka and Celtic ( on occasion). They are a team who can let you down at the most unexpected times
- only 1 win in the last 5 matches perhaps compounds my theory.
- Zenit have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches
- they've only failed to score in 1 match
- at home to 13th, 14th and 16th, Zenit have won 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0
- no 0-0 this season
Tomsk
- only 2 wins in 9 matches
- have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches
- only 3 draws all season, 2 of which were 0-0. So if you expect a goal ( as the 1.24 quote for Zenit suggests), then we should not see a draw
- after a 0-0 away to joint top placed Lokomotiv, Tomsk have lost v 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th and have scored just a single goal against top 8 away
- only 2 0-0's all season
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Zenit tend to win with ease in head to heads and to nil, and that is echoed by Tomsk's general inability to score v top 8 sides away.
- So expect a win to nil for Zenit and the obvious avoidance of a draw ( as Tomsk have had 3 draws all season, 2 of which were 0-0)
- WARNING - this is the first match after an extended winter break and may bring surprises and ring rustiness
330pm - Debrecen v Haladas - 1.57 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
4pm - Almeria v Sevilla - 2.08 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
4pm - Hercules v Alaves - 2.1 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
4pm - Lorient v St Etienne - 2.7 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
4pm - Moreirense v Feirense - 1.64 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
4pm - Pacos Ferreira v Gil Vicente - 1.8 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
430pm - Mainz v Hertha Berlin - 2.36 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
5pm - Benfica v Estoril - 1.45 home
Standout stats
- only 3 recent head to heads, where both teams have scored and it's 1-3 Benfica, 1-1 and 1-2 Benfica
- this is 1st v 4th and only a 5 point advantage for Benfica over Sporting Lisbon
Benfica
- only 1 defeat all season was the opening match of the season. I backed them at 100/1 in the next match v Gil Vicente where it was 0-1 until 2 Benfica goals in the 90th minute.
- 7 clean sheets in the last 8, with a 1-1 v guess who - Gil Vicente.
- The last 2 wins have been 1-0 which suggests this need for a clean sheet
- no 0-0 this season and Benfica have always managed a goal
- against top 7 at home, scorelines of 2-0, 2-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0
- 2 0-0's at halftime at home
- 10 first half and 8 2nd half goals at home
Estoril
- unbeaten in 10 with 4 consecutive wins
- Last 2 wins were 0-1 against estoril and Porto so a shot across the bough for benfica
- 7 clean sheets in 10 matches
- have failed to score in only 4 matches
- only played Porto of the top 3 away and that was the aforementioned 0-1
- there have been 2 90th minute goals in Estoril's last 3 matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- tight recent head to heads in keeping with Estoril's solid recent form. This is going to be a hard fought match for benfica which begs the question - are their pre-match odds too short?
- Benfica and estoril like clean sheets so will this be a concerted 0-0? If so , back 0-0 pre-match and hope for a long enough period to ensure a profitable lay
- 2-0 or 1-0 if Benfica are going to win and perhaps another 0-1 away if Estoril do what they did against Porto
5pm - Besiktas v Eskisehirspor - 1.83 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
5pm - Setubal v Sp Lisbon - 1.58 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
530pm - PAOK v Olympiakos - 2.44 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
6pm - Real Madrid v Levante - 1.07 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
715pm - Porto v Arouca - 1.2 home
Standout stats
- 1-3 in the head to heads in Porto's favour saw each team score a goal in the 90th minute
- this is 3rd v 13th. The title seems out of grasp , some 9 points adrift of benfica but as I said earlier Benfica are playing an inform Estoril tonight.
Porto
- paying the price for being a selling club?
- only 3 wins in their last 7 has put paid to the title
- A loss to estoril and a draw with Guimaraes when 0-2 up will frustrate no end - that would have reduced the gap to a manageable 6 points
- 4 consecutive wins and clean sheets at home ended with a 78th minute smash and grab raid from Estoril
- have failed to score in only 4 matches all season
- 3 of 4 defeats have come away - against 6th and lower, have won all matches to nil at home and failed to score 2+ in only one match
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home
- no 0-0's this season
- have conceded 3 at home, all 2nd half.
Arouca
- only 4 wins all season
- no win in 6 includes 4 score draws
- a 90th minute goal has been scored in 3 of their last 4 matches
- have failed to score in only 1 of their last 8
- all defeats , bar 2, have come at home so a more comfortable away side
- drawn 2-2 away to benfica, lost 5-1 v Sporting and playing 3rd away today
- 4 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Porto are not the club which used to go through a season winning all. More vulnerable these days.
- But against 6th and lower at home, Porto win easily, to nil , scoring 2+ goals. This happened in the earlier match between these 2.
- Arouca have conceded 2 and 5 against top 3 sides away so expect 2 minimum today.
745pm - Napoli v Roma - 2.5 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
8pm - Valencia v Ath Bilbao - 2.26 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
No comments:
Post a Comment