The Villareal v Getafe match was messy and I went for avoiding the draw. Villareal won 0-1
The goal came before halftime in the Sociedad match and it was Sociedad's only goal. We'll see this a lot now, edgy 1-0 wins as bottom half teams are desperate to hang on
AZ v Ajax I just had no real angle into. Ajax won 0-1
Inter v Udinese finished 0-0, and yes, I was right that this Inter side are having real trouble scoring of late.
Yet again we had another 0-2 away scoreline before halftime and, as research indicated, an Almeria team desperate for points and with a solid home record. Did you lay Valencia therefore using the 0-2/0-3 scorelines before halftime idea? You'd have cleaned up for the 2nd time on the night if you had!!
Congrats to Betis, still fighting and winning, although I had no interest in the match
before I go I'd like to share this photo with you. I am afraid I cannot cover all matches so do look out yourselves. This match I stumbled upon yesterday. Tampines Rovers were 1.14 shots to an away side who tend to concede late goals.
Tampines Rovers were.0-2 down. I waited and waited. It came to the 92nd minute. They were still 1-2 down. I backed Tampines at measly odds of 140 ( it was an illiquid market and their odds should have been much higher) and lo and behold they won. That's 2 100+ odds bets this season which have come off. DRT works!!
Onto today and it's a quiet day. Remember the "curse of the Champions League" this weekend. It begins with a PSG side away from home this evening, who play Chelsea next weekend. PSG have not done a "Dortmund" and tended to lose before Champions League match so I hope the stats prove themselves reliable.
5pm - Hajduk Split v Zadar - 1.21 home
Another match to note in-play. It's not featured at www.soccerstats.com so I won't prioritse. It's a match to react to if Zadar take the lead
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
530pm - SCR Altach v SV Horn - 1.35 home
This Austrian league match is simply one to keep any eye on if Horn happen to score first.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
730pm - Club Brugge v Lokeren - 1.77 home
Standout stats
- 4 consecutive wins in head to heads for Club Brugge
- this is 2nd v 5th
- the season is over and we are now entering the play off stage where I need a phone line to Carol Vorderman to get my head round it! So no research here I'm afraid as the season long stats refer to league matches not these play off matches. Head to heads are rather conclusive though?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
730pm - Nice v Paris St-G - 1.44 away
Standout stats
- PSG have won the last 2 head to heads, scoring 3
- 11th v 1st. Is 10 points enough of a gap for PSG to take their foot off the gas? We see what happens with the likes of Olympiakos taking their eyes off the ball thinking the job is done
- mid table mediocrity for Nice
Nice
- unbeaten in 3 matches.
- have lost only 1 of their last 7 home matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime in their last 6 home matches
- Nice have lost at home to 2nd, 4th, 8th and 9th. They beat 2nd and 6th 1-0 so perhaps a 1-0 insurance bet?
- 3 0-0's at halftime at home
- only 1 0-0 all season
PSG
- only 1 defeat all season
- no defeat in 7 away and 14 overall
- 6 consecutive wins
- 7 clean sheets in their last 10 matches
- have failed to score in only 1 match this season
- wins v 6th-13th inclusive away from home with Nice positioned bang in the middle of that group
- only 2 0-0's away from home
- no 0-0 this season
- scored 42 home goals but only 28 away goals.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Nice don't seem to be going anywhere fast and PSG have a comfortable lead and a home match against Chelsea on the 2nd April.
- If Nice win, it is likely to be a 1-0. So if they score first and early, perhaps back the 1-0 scoreline and lay Nice in the match odds market.
- this match should not end 0-0 so if we get a concerted 0-0, lay it late and low.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
730pm - Schalke v Hertha Berlin - 1.76 home
Standout stats
- 6 wins and a 0-0 in Schalke's favour in head to heads
- this is 3rd v 9th. A recent Dortmund 0-0 ( v Schalke!!) has opened the door to 2nd place which should keep Schalke competitive to the end of the season
Schalke
- unbeaten in 8 at home with 7 wins and a draw
- have failed to score in only 5 matches
- only 2 defeats at home came v 1st and 2nd
- have scored between 2-4 goals in home wins against other teams
- 70% over 2.5 goals and an interesting 54% over 3.5 goals
- only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
- have scored 9 home goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches
Hertha Berlin
- only 2 wins in 10 matches. 3 consecutive defeats conceding 3 on each occasion
- only 6 clean sheets all season
- beat Dortmund 1-2 away but that may have been in a Dortmund match pre Champions League
- otherwise lost away to 1st, 5th and 6th
- only 1 0-0 away from home
- Schalke still have something to play for. Hertha are safe and not troubling any of the European places.
- Schalke tend to do well in head to heads and with Hertha tending to lose away to top 6, I'd favour Schalke here. At their best Schalke could get between 2-4 goals
No comments:
Post a Comment