Tuesday, 25 March 2014

26/3

Both teams did score in the Olympiakos match and Oly did avoid the draw, but lost! It's that time of the season where complacency will set in with some teams.

Panathanaikos won 3-0,  Bayer Leverkusen did score a goal before halftime, as the stats suggested,  and both teams scored.

Barcelona won scoring 3 goals and keeping a clean sheet.

Hoffenheim do what Hoffenheim do. Both teams scored, over 2.5 goals came in, and 2 goals before halftime.

The Fiorentina match ended 0-2 to Milan. THey were layable 0-2 up but alas Fiorentina did not score.

The odds were spot on about Juventus , despite Parma having 17 matches unbeaten

A Hull red card pretty much kept West Ham's good record against them intact. An own goal and penalty though very unconvincing for the Hammers against 10 men.

Another goal before halftime for Liverpool - did you take advantage? The goal came in the 39th minute.
I was right to be cautious about a 0-0 at halftime for Atl Madrid. Their only goal came in the 63rd minute.
I got the both teams scoring part right in the Real Madrid match, but was surprised with a Sevilla win.

On to today, and it's mostly secondary leagues .



315pm - PAS Giannina v Panthrakikos - 1.85 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



4pm - CSKA Moscow v Terek Grozni - 1.47 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



530pm - Apollon Smirnis v PAOK - 1.91 away
Standout stats

  • only 1 recent league match was a 0-0. PAOK won 3-0 in both recent cup encounters with Apollon
  • 17th v 2nd, or 2nd bottom v 2nd top. Olympiakos dropped 3 points again yesterday as complacency sets in with an apparent unassailable 18 point gap over PAOK. With 3rd and 4th on the same points as PAOK, they will be kept honest until the end of the season
  • a win for Apollon will take them out of the relegation zone
Apollon
  • only 2 wins in 11 matches
  • have only won 1 away, so all other 6 wins came at home, against 7th and lower
  • have not beaten any of the top 6 home and away
  • no draw in 8 home matches
  • 67% over 2.5 goals at home quite high for a Greek side
PAOK
  • unbeaten in 5 matches after a poor run of 4 defeats in 6 matches ( how they must be rueing this with Olympiakos unexpectedly losing recently)
  • have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 away matches, 2 consecutive score draws recently
  • have failed to score in only 4 matches all season
  • 9 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 10
  • all defeats have come away from home
  • have played 6 of the bottom 7 and scored and conceded in 5 of those matches. Beat 16th 1-2 and drew with bottom 1-1
  • have scored in their last 10 matches


Profitable in-play opportunities

  • both sides have plenty to play for so there's no dead rubbers in Greece just yet ( it's that time of year!) Apollon find winning hard recently and only win at home v 7th and lower, so favour PAOK If Apollon score first?
  • Big goals percentages relative to Greece so over 2.5 goals and a possibility both teams could score today?
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630pm - Steaua Bucharest v Dinamo Bucharest - 1.49 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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7pm - Getafe v Villarreal - 2.24 away
Standout stats

  • 4 wins, a loss and a draw.....in Getafe's favour in recent head to heads
  • this is 18th v 7th  - a europa league place might be open for Villareal but the need for points is firmly with relegation threatened home side
Getafe
  • no win in 14
  • 4 draws and a loss to Real Madrid in their last 5 home matches - a sign that the fight is still there?
  • have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches
  • have not beaten top 9 at home
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored 12 of their 18 home goals in the first half
Villareal
  • only 2 wins in 9 matches
  • 4 defeats and a win in their last 5 away
  • only 1 clean sheet in 15 matches
  • have lost away to 2nd bottom and bottom 1-0 so that might be the template for today?
  • 11 away without a draw


Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a look at the odds of today's matches tell you that if this was a busy weekend I would not be prioritising these matches.
  • Head to heads point to Getafe. Greater need points to Getafe. Villareal's away losses to bottom 3 points to getafe!
  • But this Getafe have no win in 14 and have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches
  • Perhaps laying the draw is the angle. How can you trust a Villareal side with only 2wins in 9 and only 1 clean sheet in 15?

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7pm - Sociedad v Valladolid - 1.48 home
Standout stats

  • only 3 rcent head to heads saw 2 2-2 draws and a 4-1 win for Sociedad. In both draws, Sociedad lead 
  • this is6th v 19th,  and Valladolid are more in need of the points
Sociedad
  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches
  • only 2 defeats at home v 1st and 12th 
  • have easily beaten teams 15th and lower at home, scoring 4-3-5-2-5
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored 22 of their 33 home goals in the 2nd half
Valladolid
  • only 2 defeats in 9 matches but 5 draws in those 9. So they are really fighting but not turning not losing into 3 points
  • only 1 win in 10 away
  • have lost all matches v top 8 away, conceding 2-4 goals
  • have conceded a massive 16 goals in the last 1/2 hour of away matches


Profitable in-play opportunities

  • the need for points might produce a surprise re Valladolid, but from a statistical standpoint, they could lose, conceding 2 to 4 goals today. 
  • There is a reasonable chance for a goal before halftime but I note that a lot of Sociedad's scoring and valladolid's conceding happens in the 2nd half.
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745pm - AZ Alkmaar v Ajax - 2.04 away
Standout stats

  • 4-3-5-3-5-4 total goals when these 2 have met recently
  • this is a dutch cup match
AZ
  • no defeat in the cup since 2011 ( Ajax the last victor 1-0)
  • unbeaten in 11 cup matches at home, but 6 went to extra time
Ajax
  • only 2 defeats in the cup since 2008 were against AZ !
  • have won their last 7 away matches in the cup


Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a tough match to call. Maybe we should content ourselves with a neutral goals angle? Interesting that only AZ have beaten Ajax in the cup since 2008!! AZ too enjoy a cup run
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745pm - Inter v Udinese - 1.72 home
Standout stats

  • Udinese have won 5 of the last 7 head to heads - potential bogey team or will recent form supercede historical form?
  • this is 6th v 14th. 4th place is still up for grabs for Inter Milan
Inter Milan
  • only 1 loss in the last 7 matches came at home
  • Real trouble scoring of late at home - 1-1-0-1-1-1-1 -admittedly the only loss was the last match, a 1-2, but it's a precarious way to live at home! Best case 1-0!
  • have failed to score in only 5 matches
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches
  • have only lost to 2nd and 7th at home
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home
Udinese
  • only 2 defeats in 8 matches came in the last 2 away matches
  • very poor away from home, only wins came away to 17th and lower. 
  • have lost away to top 9 in 6 of the 7 matches played
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime away
  • no 0-0 this seasonhave conceded 15 goals in the last 1/4 hour of the 1st half. away


Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a headscratcher. Why? Well Udinese have an excellent head to head record against Inter. But this season Udinese are terrible away from home, and likely to lose against another top 10 side.
  • Inter have had real trouble scoring. In their last 7 matches, they have not scored more than one. Add that to Udinese's recent solid form, and if Inter score , then they might be layable if they cannot score a 2nd?
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9pm - Almeria v Valencia - 2.04 away
Standout stats

  • Valencia normally have a good record in head to heads , but lost 1-2 earlier this season
  • this is 16th v 9th .Almeria need to replicate their win earlier this season as they are only one point off the relegation places. Valencia are sailing happily into mid table mediocrity - to think they were the perennial "3rd best side " in Spain
Almeria
  • only 2 draws in 24 matches were 0-0. Can we safely discount a draw?
  • have conceded 4-3-3-3 in their last 4 matches, but actually won the last match 4-3!!
  • only 1 defeat in 7 home matches, and the scalp of Atl Madrid at home suggests Almeria could put it up to Valencia today
  • outside the top 7 at home, Almeria have lost only 1 match in 8
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home
Valencia
  • lost their last 2away matches 1-0 ( both 61st minute goals!)
  • failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches, but strangely scored 3 against Barcelona in the midst of all that!
  • have failed to score in only 5 matches this season
  • only 3 away wins, one was v Barcelona and the other 2 were 0-1's v 11th and 18th
  • have 7 0-0's at halftime away - 50% of matches


Profitable in-play opportunities

  • a must win team plays a mid table mediocrity team who failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches
  • only 1 defeat in 7 at home for Almeria shows they are up for it, but conceding 4-3-3-3 in their last 4 matches could be exploitable.
  • a tough match to weigh up here.
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9pm - Levante v Betis - 2.52 home
Standout stats

  • 2 score draws in the last 2 meetings. The odds tell you all about this match. As I said earlier, not a match I would research under normal circumstances
  • this is 10th v 20th. You feel that Betis are going to be relegated. 8 points between them and 2nd bottom
  • I'll not bother with this match. Mid table mediocrity plays a side who seem resigned to their fate.





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