I read the Brighton and QPR match extremely accurately. A concerted period of 0-0, a halftime 0-0 and first goal which came in the 77th minute allowed you to profit from the 0-0 back to lay trade and then switch to laying the 0-0 late and low.
Good stuff!
11am - North Korea (W) v USA (W) - 1.41 away. Illiquid odds at present. Will the Great Leader Kim Jung Un play and score a glorious triple hatrick again the Great Satan?
In any case, this is a match worth following, given the USA women's exploits against the Danish Women, which I recounted in yesterday's DRT bulletin. Should the USA women go behind, expect them to get back into the match
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210pm - Germany (w) v Japan (W) - 1.53 home - again illiquid odds as I write. Along with the USA women, the German women dominate this international stage. I think this is the Final hence the unexpected "high" odds for Germany
The 2014 Algarve Cup has seen Germany women win 5-0 v Iceland, 1-0 v China women and 1-3 v Norway. In the last 2 matches, we had a couple of great DRT's when German women took until the 80th+ minute to score against China, and then came from behind to beat Norway.
Japanese ladies drew 1-1 with the USA, beat Denmark 1-0 and beat Sweden 2-1
On the 8th March 2013, Germany beat japan in this competition 2-1
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330pm - Spartak Moscow v Tosno - 1.14 home
Standout stats
- This is a Russian Cup match
- Spartak Moscow are a Premier League side and Tosno are a 2nd Division side
Spartak Moscow
- no draw in 13 matches in all competitions
- lost their last match in the Premier League after the winter break, 1-0. The other 2 losses were against none russian teams in winter break friendlies.
- only 2 russian sides have beaten Spartak at home in 26 matches
- unbeaten in the cup in 90 minutes since 2010, Spartak though have had 3 of their last 6 matches go to extra time ( which they lost)
- a terrible historical record at home with LLLWDD ( L=Loss, W=Win and D=Draw). In this case the draws led to extra time losses.
Tosno
- Only 2 defeats since JUly 2010 for Tosno in all competitions
- away from home, Tosno are unbeaten since July 2013
- Tosno played in the cup in 2013 and are unbeaten, with 3 of the last 4 matches going to extra time.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Spartak Moscow don't seem bothered with this competition it seems but must be respected as they have such a strong home record against Russian sides.
- Spartak are unbeaten in the cup in 90 minutes which does not discount extra time against a side who know how NOT to get beaten, albeit their form is hard to gauge as it has exclusively occured in a lesser league.
- The value is in laying Spartak Moscow if they score first, and hope for another extra time match, although I suspect this Premiership side will win easily enough.
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4pm - Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.38 away
Dinamo Zagreb, particularly at home, are a DRT'er dream team. But away? Let's take a look.
Standout stats
- this is the semi-finals of the Croatian cup so should be treated with caution
- both of these sides are top flight sides
- Dinamo Zagreb have won the last 5 head to heads, most recently on 8th March 2014 a 1-6 away win which makes that 1.38 quote extremely enticing ( I'd have expected 1.17)
Slaven Belupo
- only 3 wins in 16 matches, and 2 of those wins were 0-1 friendlies
- only 1 win in 6 home matches saw 2 consecutive defeats, and latterly to today's opponents 1-6
- unbeaten in 5 in the cup
- only 2 defeats at home in 8 matches in the cup, one was a 0-1 v today's opponents in 2011
Dinamo Zagreb
- only 3 defeats in 20 matches came v non-Croatian teams in European competitions
- only 2 defeats in 10 aways again v non Croatian teams
- no defeat in 22 cup matches
- have won 6 of their last 7 , keeping 4 clean sheets
- only 1 defeat in the cup since 2006 away from home and currently 12 wins, a 0-0 and a 1-1 draw in their last 14 aways
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the away side look a reliable sort and should be confidently backed to regain parity if going behind to Slaven .
- the more speculative amongst you might want to back over 5.5 goals incase the Dinamo Zagreb who won 1-6 last time they visited Slaven, turn up today
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745pm - Barcelona v Man City - 1.59 home
2 2nd half away goals separate the sides. Bear in mind Barcelona were 1.24 at the weekend against Valladolid and lost and therein lies the ingredients for City's success. Keep a clean sheet and score first. Otherwise City are out.
As per last night, 1.59 is far too short given the unique circumstances of this match.
Both sides had uncharacteristic slip-ups at the weekend ( with one eye on this match?)
Barcelona need a 0-0 bare minimum to go through. 0-1 loss is tolerable. If Barcelona score 1 goals City will have to score 3 ( which is what they need to do anyway).
Will this be likes the Arsenal v bayern match yesterday which ended 1-1 after a 0-2 1st leg?
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745pm - Paris St-G v Leverkusen - 1.43 home
This is a dead rubber is it not? 0-4 from the first leg. 4 away goals. Leverkusen therefore need to score 5 goals without conceding to go through.
Paris St Germain can tolerate a 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3 ( twitchy bum!) and if they score, then it's sayonara Bayer.
How can we find an angle in? I am reminded of the rule that "teams which don't need to win, rarely do" which suggests a lay of Paris St Germain at 1.43.
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745pm - Rangers v Airdrieonians - 1.12 home
Rangers conceded first against Albion Rovers in the Scottish cup at the weekend and took an age to equalise. Considering Rangers were 1.1 pre match, there were some value in-play odds to be had .
Today Rangers return to short priced favouritism in league one.
Standout stats
Rangers
- Airdrie are yet to score in the 4 meetings, losing them all, by a diminishing margin on each occasion ( 6-0, to 3-0, to 2-0 and latest 1-0)
- An air of complacency seems to have hit Rangers in recent matches ( great news for DRT'ers of course). They beat Ayr United away with 2 45th+ minute goals, drew 3-3 with Stenhousemuir after being 0-1 and 1-2 down , beat Stranraer 0-2 , with the 2nd goal coming in the 89th minute, beat East Fife with a 90th minute penalty, and latterly in the Cup, conceded first to Albion Rovers before a 78th minute equaliser
- unbeaten in league 1 with all wins bar 2 score draws
- the last 4 home matches again exemplify complacency, with a 1-1 v Stranraer, 2-0 v East Fife, 3-2 v Arbroath ( brilliant DRT as Arbroath were 1-2 up until the 70th minute), 2-1 v Brechin and 3-3 v Stenhousemuir
Airdrie
- are unbeaten in 7 matches, with 4 draws amongst those 7
- only 1 win in 15 aways was a 0-1 v Dunfermline. Lost 2-0 to Rangers away in November 2013
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Rangers are slipping up lately but still not losing, which makes them superb DRT candidates. They have been conceding first of late. Do delay entry into the market if they concede first as they do not tend to equalise immediately.
- 1.12 shots are expected to score before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score low and late
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745pm - Sheff Utd v Carlisle - .1.65 home
Standout stats
- this is a league one match and I don't normally venture this far down the leagues but on a less hectic day such as today, let's see if that 1.65 quote suggests a reliable Blades.
- 2013 saw a 0-0 and a 1-0 Carlisle win in head to heads
- this is 12th v 19th and Carlisle are only a point off relegation.
Sheff Utd
- 6 consecutive wins to nil see Sheff Utd suddenly in superb form.
- 3 of the wins were 1-0 so highly reliant on that defence.
- have failed to score in only 2 of 18 matches
- have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 home matches
- look pretty comfortable at home against 13th and lower, and more so against 21st and lower with 4 wins out of 4. 1-1 draws v 16th, 17th and 18th might give Carlisle hope
- have scored in their last 12 home matches
- no home 0-0's
Carlisle
- 4 wins in 14 matches
- 4 of the last 5 away scorelines have been 2-1( 3 defeats and a win)
- have failed to score in only 2 of their last 12 matches
- only 3 clean sheets in 17 matches
- have lost to 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th away and are playing 12th today
- have conceded in their last 7 away matches
- 2 away 0-0's
- have conceded 10 goals in the 61st-75th minute away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- recent form must point to Sheffield United, as must another win to nil.They have scored an 87th and 88th minute goal in 2 of their last 3 matches and late action is where the money is, so if this is 0-0 then look to lay the 0-0 late on.
- Beware the 1-1 draw as it occurs a lot for Sheff Utd at home to teams in the same part of the league as Carlisle.
- with only 3 clean sheets in 17 matches, the probability is that Carlisle will concede more than not.
- Be aware that Carlisle are a point above the relegation zone so are likely to double defensive efforts tonight. Perhaps back 0-0 pre-match and hope this is the case.
For those late owls there are a couple of matches to monitor
1030pm - Vilhena v Palmeiras - 1.23 away
1045pm - San Lorenzo v Union Espanola - 1.54 home
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