Standout stats
- beware the return from the winter break. It caught Zenit cold yesterday with a 0-0 at even shorter odds than lokomotiv
- since 2012 Lokomotiv have won 1-0 and 2-0 and the 2013 head to head was a 2-2 where Lokomotiv were 0-2 down
- this is 2nd v 8th
Lokomotiv
- must take advantage of Zenit's 0-0 yesterday as they are only a point behind Zenit
- only 3 defeats all season
- only 1 defeat in 12 was against Tomsk, the team who kept Zenit to that 0-0 yesterday
- 6 consecutive home clean sheets
- have only failed to score in 3 all seaosn
- clean sheets at home v 7th and lower. Will that continue today against 8th
- 75% clean sheets at home
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home
- have only conceded 3 goals at home
Kryliya Sovetov
- only 1 defeat in 8 saw them in good pre-winter break form
- 3 wins and a 1-1 draw in their last 4 away matches
- have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 12
- failed to score in only 3 matches
- perhaps ominously, all defeats this season home and away have come v 5th and above
- have scored in their last 8 matches
- only 1 0-0 at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- both teams in reasonable form but the clinchers could be Zenit's 0-0 yesterday which must be punished by Lokomotiv today, and the fact that Kryliya's defeats have all come against top 5.
- a possible win to nil for Lokomotiv, and if Kryliya are good defensively, this could be a concerted 0-0
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5pm - Widzew Lodz v Lech Poznan - 1.58 away
Standout stats
- 3 consecutive wins to nil for Lech in head to heads, and through in a 0-0 too
- this is 16th v 4th and it's always worth looking at matches involving bottom sides
Widzew Lodz
- only 4 wins all season, all at home
- no win in 9 matches
- 2 consecutive home wins
- have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- only 1 clean sheet all season
- solid form at home to 6th and lower, losing only 1, but at home to top 5 we see 0-1, 0-1 0-3 defeats , which pretty much tallies with the head to heads
- only 1 0-0 this season
Lech Poznan
- have lost only 6 all season
- have only won 1 of their last 5 away matches
- have failed to score in 6 all seoson and only failed to score in 1 of 10
- only 2 clean sheets in 13 matches
- a lot more vulnerable away from home and 2 0-0 draws v 14th and 15th away
- have conceded in their last 6 away matches
- 2 0-0's away from home
Profitable in-play opportunities
- this could be a toughie for Lech Poznan. They are poorer away from home and those 0-0's v bottom 3 away are a concern. Home side though haven't scored v top 5
- Back 0-0 pre-match and hope this is as tight as the stats suggest.
- Then lay a late 0-0 in the hope Lech Poznan win 0-1
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530pm - Norway (W) v Germany (W) - 1.41 away
This will be quick. Germany women were great against China women, in the respect that it was 0-0 until late and they made the breakthrough in the last 5 minutes.
They are the better team, and dominate women's football along with the USA so favour an eventual German win in this Algarve Cup match. Likey a very illiquid betting market
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6pm - Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce -2.14 away
Standout stats
- Fenerbahce are unbeaten in head to heads but have had a couple of 0-0 draws. Their last 2 wins were to nil
- this is 7th v 1st. A degree of comfort for Fenerbahce in that they are 3 points clear and have a game in hand at the top.
Trabzonspor
- only 1 defeat in 7 sounds good but we had 4 draws
- have scored and conceded in their last 6 home matches
- have failed to score in only 2 of their last 15 matches
- only 2 clean sheets in 11 matches
- good home form....v 8th and below but have not won home or away v top 6. That's not discounting their ability to draw a match though. Draws at home v 3rd and 4th
- have scored in their last 8 homes and conceded in their last 6
- only 1 0-0 at home
Fenerbahce
- only 4 defeats all season and 3 of them came in the last 8 matches, and yes, all defeats have come away this season
- have not won in 4 aways
- only failed to score in 2 matches
- only 2 clean sheets in 12 matches
- only 1 draw away . Losses away to 4th, 8th, 10th, 12th
- have failed to score in only 1 away match
- have conceded in their last 8 matches
- only 1 0-0 away
- unbeaten in head to heads but this season Fenerbahce are unreadable in away matches , losing against 4th, 8th, 10th and 12th.
- both teams could score today , but head to heads point to clean sheets for Fenerbahce
- tough to call as Fener are vulnerable away. They have only failed to score in 2 matches all season so that may be the angle in. Lay Trabzonspor if they score first
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7pm - Osasuna v Malaga - 2.36 home
Standout stats
- very tight head to heads here with a number of draws.
- this is 13th v 16th
Osasuna
- only 1 loss in 6 home matches
- 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches
- wins v 14th, 15th, a loss v 18th and a win v 19th at home and they are playing 16th today
- have scored 13 of their last 14 goals in the first half hour of matches at home
- score first in only 1/2 of their home matches
Malaga
- only 1 win in 9 was a 3-2 v Sevilla
- no win in 4 away sees them score only 1 goal
- have failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches
- all bar one of Malaga's wins home and away have come against 14th and lower
- only 1 away win
- 6 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- statistically it's advantage Osasuna on this season's form in a match I would ordinarily leave alone.
- malaga have only won 1 away ( that's not discounting the draw!) but are having trouble scoring.
- With Osasuna keeping 3 clean sheets in 4 matches this is perhaps not the match for Malaga to start scoring loads.
- Don't discount the draws that we see historically.
- there might be a 0-0 at halftime so don't be surprised.
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9pm - Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano - 1.49 home
Standout stats
- 3 Sociedad easy wins to nil ended with a 1-0 Rayo win - an 89th minute penalty
- this is 6th v 19th
Sociedad
- only 3 defeats in 13 matches
- 7 wins and a 0-0 v Levante in their last 8 matches at home
- the last home win was a 3-1 v barcelona
- have failed to score in only 6 matches all season
- have only lost to 1st at home
- 3-0 win v 3rd bottom, 5-1 win v bottom and playing 2nd bottom today
- 10 at home without defeat
- only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
- have scored 21 of their 30 goals at home in the 2nd half.
Rayo Vallecano
- only 2 draws all season
- last 2 wins have come at home
- failed to score in their last 3 away matches
- have lost away to 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th and are playing 6th today
- 30% of their away matches have had over 4.5 goals
- only 1 0-0 all season
- have lost 14 first half and 16 2nd half goals away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Rayo might put up a rearguard action tonight - it's just that time of the season where the sweat beads of desparation are clear on the manager's forehead
- Clearly favouring a buoyant Real Sociedad who beat a very lacklustre barcelona ( curse of the pre-Champions League match)
- Sociedad at their best will score 3 minimum tonight against a team who have lost to all top 7 away
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