Friday, 28 March 2014

SUNDAY

11am - Valladolid v Almeria - 1.96 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities





1130am - Feyenoord v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.28 home
Standout stats
  • only 1 head to head of relevance was a 2-2 and Go ahead salvaged a point with a late 90th minute equaliser
  • 5th v 15th. 2nd place is within reach for Feyenoord and If Ajax lose a couple, well the title might be in grasp so it is key that Feyenoord win these home matches when expected to do so 
  • go ahead eagles are 3 points clear of relegation so have their own needs
Feyenoord
  • only 2 defeats in 14 matches, and one was against Ajax.
  • have failed to score in only 1 match this season 
  • we see 4/5 goals at home to 14th and lower which sort of ties in with a 1.28 quote today
  • have scored in all home matches
  • 50% of home matches are over 3.5 goals
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
  • have scored a whopping 12 goals in the last 1/4 hour of the first half and 9 in the first quarter hour of the 2nd half
Go ahead
  • only 2 wins in 10 matches came at home and against AZ and Twente
  • 6 defeats and a draw in their last 7 away matches
  • only 2 clean sheets all season
  • have lost all away matches played v top 12 teams, conceding 3 goals minimum v top 7 away
  • have conceded in all away matches
  • only 3 0-0's at halftime away
  • have conceded most goals in the 1st quarter hour of the 2nd half

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • the stats point to a 3 goal minimum haul by Feyenoord today. Do beware these top v bottom clashes ( Palace v Chelsea anyone?)
  • Go ahead simply struggle away and against a team with only 2 defeats in 14 matches, they are unlikely to get anything out of this match.
  • there could be a goal before halftime, stats wise and with the fact this is dutch football.
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1130am - Sassuolo v Roma - 1.56 away
Standout stats
  • A 90th minute Sassuolo equaliser ensured a 1-1 last time these 2 met
  • this is 19th v 2nd, or 2nd bottom v 2nd top
  • a win sees Roma close the gap to 11 points to Juventus. A win keeps Sassuolo 2nd bottom
Sassuolo
  • only 2 wins in 17 matches , both home wins saw Sassuolo needing 4 and 3 goals
  • only 3 clean sheets all season should see a Roma goal at some stage
  • have lost at home to 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th , without scoring
  • no draw in 12 at home
  • have conceded in their last 9 home matches
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about 33%
  • have scored first in only 2 of 15 home matches
Roma
  • only 2 defeats all season came away v napoli and Juventus
  • have only failed to score in 5 this season
  • have beaten 16th, 17th and 18th away from home 0-2, 0-1, 0-2 
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away ( 43% of away matches)
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • all about need, this match. Roma want to cling on to 2nd and keep Juventus honest. Sassuolo need points sharpish
  • Stats point to a possible 0-0 at halftime, but Sassuolo matches tend to be unpredictable at best ( 4-3 v AC Milan an example!)
  • Roma seem comfortable v bottom 6 sides away, so best case for them would be a win to nil, best 0-2
  • Sassuolou have been avoiding the draw of late. Is that an angle in?



1245pm - FC Zurich v Lausanne - 1.45 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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1245pm - Hearts v Hibernian - 2.18 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities

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1pm - PAOK v AEL Kalloni - 1.24 home
Standout stats
  • a 2-5 win for PAOK last time these 2 met earlier in the season
  • 2nd v 12th. Olympiakos are slipping up of late but a 17 point gap is surely insurmountable for PAOK. There is a battle for 2nd though which will keep them honest
  • Kalloni are some 5 points from relegation. Enough?
PAOK
  • unbeaten in 6 matches
  • 7 consecutive home wins
  • have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches
  • have failed to score in only 4 matches this season
  • unbeaten at home with only 1 draw
  • have scored in their last 11 matches
  • 73% over 2.5 goals at home
Kalloni
  • only 3 draws all season
  • spanked by Panathanaikos latest and Pana were similarly priced to PAOK
  • no win in 5 away matches and have conceded 10 and scored none in their last 2 matches
  • have failed to score in 7 of their last 11 matches
  • only 3 wins in their last 11 matches came at home
  • have lost all matches home and away v top 6
  • have conceded in their last 9 away matches
  • no 0-0 away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • I said after Kalloni's 7-0 tonking away that we might see a defensive reaction against panathanaikos but no they lost 3-0. And in PAOK  we have another side capable of damaging Kalloni
  • PAOK will score at some stage, so say the stats and this might be another win to nil despite PAOK conceding in 9 of their last 11 matches
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130pm - Ajax v Twente - 1.9 home
Standout stats
  • Twente's only win in recent head to heads came in a "super cup" match. Draw, Ajax, Ajax, Ajax, Draw in the recent head to heads
  • this is 1st v 3rd. I think this match is more important for Twente than Ajax. Twente can move to within 4 points of Ajax with a win. If Ajax win, the gap will be 10 points. So this is a must win if Twente want a title hope.
Ajax
  • only 3 defeats all season . 
  • no defeat in 16 matches
  • only one loss at home was v Vitesse.
  • 6 wins and a 1-1 draw in their last 7 home matches
  • have failed to score in only 4 matches this season
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home ( 36% of home matches)
  • superb at home. Have scored 21 of their 34 home goals in the 2nd half and only conceded 5 all season
  • no opponent has led at halftime at Ajax
Twente
  • only 4 defeats all season
  • have not won in 4 away matches and 2 of the 4 defeats all season came in the last 4 away matches
  • only 2 wins in 7 matches
  • have failed to score in only 3 matches all season
  • only 2 clean sheets in 19 matches
  • have lost away to 2nd and 4th
  • have scored 15 away goals in the last 1/2 hour

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • Ask Barcelona, ask Man Utd ( against Olympiakos). Ask Atl Madrid. MUST WINS tend to win, right? Will this be the case for Twente today? 
  • They are on a par with Ajax  - Ajax 3 losses only - Twente 4 losses only
  • Ajax are clear in head to heads so based solely on that they must be favourited. No defeat in 16 matches plays a side conceding in 17 of their last 19 matches.
  • This part of the season can sometimes throw up the odd result. Stats wise though, Twente have lost to top 5 away, have only 2 wins in 7 matches .
  • Both teams could score today
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130pm - Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar - 2.48 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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130pm - Fulham v Everton - 1.82 away
Standout stats
  • Fulham are unbeaten in the last 2 head to heads at home, albeit the last was a League Cup match. Both teams have scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • this is 20th v 5th. A reprieve is possible for Fulham, and 4th place is possible for Everton, particularly if Arsenal continue to draw when they should win
Fulham
  • only 1 win in 11 matches was a 1-0 v Newcastle
  • only 4 clean sheets all season 
  • have lost all matches at home to top 7 this season, scoring in all too. Conceded between 2-4 goals v top 7 at home 
  • 13 at home without a draw
  • 73% over 2.5 goals at home and 40% over 3.5 goals, so Fulham don't go quietly!!
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home is quite high at 40%
  • no 0-0 this season
  • have conceded a whopping 17 goals in the last 1/2 hour of home matches

Everton
  • only 5 defeats all season, 3 of the last 4 were 1-0's
  • 4 consecutive wins , 3 at home and latterly a 0-3 away win against Newcastle
  • Everton away from home have only lost to top 6 sides
  • BUT note they have only drawn with the bottom 5 sides they have played away 1-1, 0-0, 0-0
  • 10 0-0's at halftime away from home is 2/3rds of away matches
  • have scored 13 of their 17 away goals in the last 1/2 hour of matches

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • this looks like a concerted 0-0 if the stats continue. 
  • Be prepared in the 60th+ minute mark for goals , usually concessions for Fulham and scoring from Everton.
  • Watch out both teams could score today, Fulham have scored in defeat to all of the top 7 they have played at home this season
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2pm - Lazio v Parma - 2.2 home
Standout stats
  • Lazio have won the last 4 meetings at home  and the last 2 2-1
  • 9th v 6th. A top 5 spot is still up for grabs for parma
Lazio
  • only 1 win in 4 matches
  • only 1 win in 5 at home was a 3-2 v Sassuolo
  • Find the top 8 difficult to crack at home. Only 1 win was a 1-0 v Inter Milan.Failed to score v 2nd, 4th and 7th
  • all wins bar 1 at home have come v 14th and lower
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home is about 43%
Parma
  • are clearly the inform side here despite a loss to Juventus last time out. That was their first loss in 18 matches ( since Juventus beat them before!!)
  • that recent loss was an away loss and was preceded by 5 consecutive away wins
  • have failed to score in only 6 matches all season
  • losses away to 1st, 11th, 13th and 14th. BUT note the recent excellent run which might suggest those away defeats v 11th etc came at a bad time for parma
  • they have scored in the last 9 away matches
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away
  • have scored 10 away goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • why on earth are Lazio favourites here, albeit not strong favs by any stretch? Parma are clearly the form side here, on a superb run with only 1st placed Juventus the only team to beat them in 18 matches. Parma have the motivation too to enter the top 5.
  • Lazio also have trouble at home to top 8 sides and only really win v 14th and lower
  • strange betting market! I would favour Parma stats wise

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2pm - Osijek v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.48 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



2pm - Sampdoria v Fiorentina - 2.62 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



2pm - Torino v Cagliari - 1.94 home
Standout stats
  • Cagliari are unbeaten in their last 6 head to heads yet the home team are the odds on team here.
  • Cagliari have won 0-1 the last 2 times they have visited Torino
  • this is 11th v 15th. Cagliari are 6 points clear of the relegation zone. I doubt that is enough if teams below them win and they drop points between now and the end of the season
Torino
  • 5 defeats in their last 6 matches 
  • only 4 home defeats were against 1st ( 0-1), 3rd (0-1), 9th (0-2) and 17th (1-2)
  • beat 16th, 18th, 19th, 20th at home and are playing 15th today
  • have conceded in their last 9 matches
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home ( 33% of matches )
  • Immobile and Cerci the key home goal scorers
Cagliari
  • only 3 wins in 15 matches were all at home and were all wins to nil. 
  • Away from home , have scored 0-0-0-0-0-1-1-0  - this is the problem
  • no wins away for Cagliari and have not scored more than 1 goal away which makes things rather restricted to 0-1 or 1-1 if they want to win any points away from home
  • have lost the away matches played v 7th-14th inclusive , exactly where Torino currently reside
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away from home is about 57%

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • we've seen a few of these matches this season, where the less favoured side is actually the side who seem to win in head to heads. This is the case with Cagliari who are unbeaten in 6 of 7 head to heads and actually won the last 2 visits to Torino 0-1. This ties in with Cagliari's inability to score more than 1 goal away all season so best case for them looks to be 0-1.
  • this match might be 0-0 for a while so don't be surprised.
  • Torino have lost 5 of their last 6 matches so are as trustworthy as Arfur Daley. 
  • Tough to get a really solid angle in here. Lay Cagliari perhaps if they lead 0-1 ( with an insurance bet perhaps on the 0-1) just incase they continue to fail to score 2 in an away match
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2pm - Verona v Genoa - 2.24 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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2pm - Vise v Eupen - 1.28 away
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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230pm - Mgladbach v Hamburg - 1.76 home
Standout stats
  • 3 score draws ened with a win for both sides
  • this is 6th v 16th. 4th place is open for Mgladbach and of course Hamburg desperately need points
Mgladbach
  • only 2 wins in 12 matches came in their last 3 matches
  • have failed to score in only 5 matches
  • only 1 clean sheet in 11 matches
  • against 9th and lower at home, Mgladbach have won 7 and drawn 1 2-2 so Hamburg should be within their compass
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home 
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home
  • no 0-0's at home
  • have scored a massive 10 goals in the 61st-75th minute at home
Hamburg
  • only 2 wins in 14 matches , one was against  a faltering Dortmund as explained earlier
  • 5 consecutive away defeats
  • Hamburg have only 2 away wins v 14th and 15th.
  • have conceded in their last 7 away matches
  • 70% over 2.5 goals away from home
  • no 0-0 this season
  • interestingly Hamburg have conceded 9 goals in the 61st-75th minute away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • both sides are in really poor form.
  • This should not end 0-0
  • watch out for possible goals in the 1 hour mark.
  • Mgladbach are solid against lower position teams so perhaps it favours them in this match. Hamburg's away wins have come v 14th and lower away
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330pm - ADO Den Haag v Zwolle - 1.87 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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4pm - Lille v Guingamp - 1.6 home
Standout stats
  • only one head to head of relevance was a 0-0
  • this is 3rd v 14th. Lille will be wanting to stay in 3rd as it seems 2nd is out of their reach
Lille
  • unbeaten in 7 matches
  • 4 draws in their last 6 matches
  • have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets at home
  • only 2 defeats at home v 7th and 11th
  • Lille look comfortable v 12th and lower, conceding in only 1 of 7 matches
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 33% overs at home
  • have scored 20 at home and conceded 6 only
Guincamp
  • no draw in 8
  • have won their last 2 away matches , the only 2 wins in 8 matches
  • have not beaten any top 10 team home or away this season. Damning evidence?
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away from home ( 50% of away matches)
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • the looks very straightforward. Guincamp cannot beat top 10 teams home and away, Lille tend to keep clean sheets at home v 12th and lower.
  • There is a chance this might be a 0-0 at halftime.
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4pm - Liverpool v Tottenham - 1.49 home
Standout stats
  • Liverpool have won the 2 2013 head to heads quite comfortably and are priced for an easy afternoon at Anfield
  • 2nd v 6th. Liverpool simply must keep winning and hope Chelsea and Arsenal slip up. Tottenham have 5th place to consider although I feel that Tim Sherwood is being " found out" a bit lately
Liverpool
  • 7 consecutive wins in a run of 12 unbeaten for Liverpool
  • they have been firing in the goals too - 5-3-4-3-3-6-2 in those wins
  • have failed to score in only 2 matches
  • 11 home wins in their last 12 matches and they must keep Sturridge and Suarez fit ( oh and Skrtel who has out scored Torres this year lol)
  • easy wins against 4th and 5th at home 
  • have scored in their last 21 matches
  • 73% over 2.5 goals at home, 67% over 3.5 goals at home
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime all season - a stat that paid well at the weekend v Stoke
  • Suarez and Sturridge are key to home goal scoring. Any absence by one or both will impact Liverpool greatly.
  • have scored 30 home goals in the first half to the concession of only 4
Tottenham
  • 3 defeats in the last 5 matches and 2 consecutive away defeats. Recent defeats to Chelsea and Arsenal suggest Liverpool will be a bridge too far
  • failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches, all 3 ending in defeat
  • 6 defeats and a 1-1 draw with Chelsea home and away v top 4 this season
  • have failed to score away to the top 5 sides they have played so far
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away from home
  • scored 15 of their 23 away goals in the 2nd half
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • Liverpool seem to regularly get that goal before halftime which aids the 0-0 halftime score lay.
  • Spurs still have not scored an away goal v top 5. any reason for that to change today?
  • Liverpool are expected to score 2 minimum today
  • Liverpool have scored in their last 21 matches so if this were to unexpectedly be 0-0 for a while, lay it
  • make sure Suarez and Sturridge play for Liverpool if you are after a goals punt
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4pm - Osasuna v Sociedad - 2.44 away
Standout stats
  • Osasuna kept 4 clean sheets in head to heads until a sudden 5-0 spanking by Sociedad in the last head to head.
  • this is 17th v 6th and another toughie based on the betting market and the need of both sides for 3 points
Osasuna
  • 5 consecutive defeats, failing to score in 4 of those matches
  • what an unpredictable team, beating the likes of Atl Madrid at home and then losing the next 2 matches
  • against the top 7 at home, Sociedad beat 1st but drew at home to 2nd , 3rd and lost to 4th, 5th and 7th. A case of putting on a show when the big boys come to town
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
Sociedad
  • 3 defeats in their last 8 matches
  • have failed to score in only 3 of 22 matches
  • only 1 win in their last 6 matches away
  • poor record v top 6 away, 1-1 v 15th, 4-3 loss to 16th, and 2-2 draws v 18th and 19th
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • It seems Osasuna at home are superb against the big 3 but then cannot be arsed v the rest! Sociedad are 6th so where do they fit in? 
  • Sociedad themselves should get a goal today but they have been unable to beat the bottom 6 away this season
  • Stats wise, both teams could score today and we could see a goal before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score low and late
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430pm - Hannover v W Bremen - 1.92 home
Standout stats
  • this match seems to favour the home side . Werder have won the last 3 meetings at Werder, and Hannover have won the last 2 meetings at Hannover 3-2
  • this is 12th v 13th - both have identical points and are some 5 points clear of the relegation zone. Expect a keenly fought contest today>
Hannover
  • only 1 win in the last 8 matches and 2 consecutive defeats conceding 3 goals
  • have only kept 4 clean sheets all season. 
  • have only lost 3 matches at home against 1st, 2nd and 10th
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • have scored 8 of their 13 awya goals in the last 1/4 hour of matches
W Bremen
  • only 3 wins in 16 matches
  • Like Hannover, they have lost their last 2 matches, conceding 3 goals in each
  • have lost all bar one of their away matches v 9th and above.
  • have conceded 9 away goals directly after halftime

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • not really enthused about this match. We don't have to trade every match, that's the advantage we have. If I were to get involved there is a suggestion that both teams could score, and that historically the home team are favoured.
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430pm - Malmo FF v Falkenbergs - 1.29 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



5pm - Braga v Benfica - 1.88 away
Standout stats
  • 3 wins and a 2-2 draw in favour of Benfica in head to heads
  • 6th v 1st. Benfica have played a game less than Sporting lisbon so can really turn the screw with a win , already being 4 points clear
  • Braga still have 5th spot to fight for I suppose, whatever benefit that position bestows
Braga
  • only 2 wins in 9 matches have come at home
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws away 
  • have scored and conceded in the last 9 matches
  • have scored in their last 12 matches
  • have kept a clean sheet in only 4 matches this season
  • lost 1-2 to Sporting lisbon at home, but beat 4th and 5th at home 3-2 and 2-1 I think top of the league is a step too far for Braga
  • 67% over 2.5 goals at home, 2/3rds of matches
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
  • start off really well at home, scoring 7 within the first 1/4 hour
Benfica
  • I introduced you to Tampines rovers the other day. Well Benfica I also backed at about 130 earlier this season and they won. Take a look at the 2nd match of the season at home to Gil Vicente
  • only 1 defeat all season came in the first match
  • Have won the rest bar 4 score draws
  • 7 consecutive wins
  • drew away to 2nd and lost away to 9th ( first match of the season)
  • no defeat in 23 and have scored in their last 24 matches
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away is about a 1/3rd of matches
  • 17 goals scored away between the 30th and 75th minutes!
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • not a must win for Benfica but a "would be nice to win" to take advantage of a game in hand
  • Benfica are likely to score at some stage here and such is their form they should remain unbeaten ., so if Braga lead, lay them
  • Braga have scored in their last 12 matches and scored in home defeat to Sporting so there is evidence that they might get a goal.
  • Toss of a coin really as regards a goal before halftime. I would side with a lay of 0-0 halftime score really late 1st half ( remember Benfica get motoring goalswise on the 30 minute mark away)
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5pm - Standard v Anderlecht - 2.22 home
Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities



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