0-0 right until the 90th minute for this 1.1 shot should have alerted you that we were expecting an eventual French u21 win, and a 1-0 90th minute goal it ended! I hope some of you spotted it.
It's mostly friendly internationals and a smattering of under 21 European championship matches so in reality another low key day, unless you side with a specific team and follow that through in-play.
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10am - Georgia U21 v Luxembourg U21 - 1.12 home
Standout stats
- this is a UEFA under 21 Championship match and 1.12 is a similar price to France U21 and should really signal a 3/4 goal haul minimum, rather than a 90th minute 1-0 as with the froggies.
- A 0-3 in September 2013 about fits in with a 1.12 quote today. An early first half goal and 2 70th+ minute goals secured a comfortable win for Georgia.
Georgia u21
- Victories against Estonia, Luxembourg and Scotland but losses v the likes of Netherlands, Slovakia, the Swiss and Spain recently suggest Luxembourg are within their comfort zone.
- only 2 defeats in 5 at home v Netherlands and Slovakia but wins at home v estonia and Scotland, both 2-1 and a 1-1 v Croatia, suggests Georgia have trouble keeping a clean sheet
Luxembourg U21
- 16 consecutive defeats in this competition.
- failed to score in 4 of the last 5
- 3 consecutive 3-0 away defeats
- have conceded 3+ in their last 6 away matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
- although obviously Georgia will not be setting the football world alite anytime soon.,Luxembourg have been conceding the 3/4 goals which the 1.12 quote for Georgia suggests will be replicated today.
- Look for France u21 like shocks!!
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1040am - Japan v New Zealand - 1.22 home
Standout stats
- A 0-3 win for Japan in June 2013
Japan
- losses in friendlies to Bulgaria, Uruguay, Serbia and Belarus, alleviated by wins v Guatemala , Ghana, and Belgium and a 2-2 draw with netherlands
- strong at home with their fanatical support, Japan have won 12 of their last 16, losing only to Brazil, Bulgaria and Uruguary and drawing with Venezuela
NZ
- recent wins were away to Honduras and Saudi Arabia (0-1) and recently lost 2-0 to UAE and 0-0 draw v the might of Trinidad and Tobago.
- had a run of matches conceding 3 v Mexico, 3 v Australia, 3 v Jamaica and 2 v El Salvador
Profitable in play opportunities
- looks straightforward. NZ look lightweight up front and a packed house in Tokyo will keep the Jap's eyes on the ball.
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1pm - Romania U21 v Faroe Islands U21 - 1.09 home
Standout stats
- this is not a friendly
Romania u21
- only Montenegro and France have beaten Romania u21 since 2011 in the Under 21 Championship.
- June 2013 saw Romania concede first to Faroes, then go 1-2 up before a 90th minute Faroes equaliser. More expected of them today with home advantage - that match was a good DRT!
- Only France ( 2011) and Wales (2008) have beaten Romania U21 at home in this competition since August 2004.
- 6 clean sheets in their last 8 home matches, only being breached by the likes of France u21 and Germany u21
Faroes
- no win in 15 matches in this competition.
- have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 5 matches
- 8 consecutive away defeats conceding 5-4-1-3-3-5 in their last 6 matches.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- a lapse from Romania u21 when away at Faroes would be welcome today but this looks rather straightforward. Monitor for shocks therefore, and expect at least 3 goals if Romania u21 are on song
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130pm - Malta U21 v Sweden U21 - 1.12 away
Standout stats
- plenty of extremely short priced favourites today makes for good potential DRT's as these are, at least, competitive fixtures
Malta u21
- 11 consecutive defeats in this competition, failing to score in 8 of them
- have conceded 4-5-2-4-5-4-5-5 in their last 8 matches which again fits in neatly with Sweden U21's 1.12 quote ( 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil)
- have lost their last 7 away matches failing to score in 4 of the last 5 matches and lost 5-0 away to Sweden u21 as recently as November 2013
Sweden u21
- since 2012 have lost to Ukraine u21 ( 6-0), Slovenia u21 (2-1), Italy u21 (1-0 and 2-3), Poland u21 ( 2-0) and Greece u21 ( 5-1) so are vulnerable
- their last match played was that 5-0 home win v Malta u21
- 5 defeats and a 2-2 draw in their last 6 away matches so Sweden will be looking to end this poor sequence
Profitable in-play opportunities
- proven in head to heads to have the comfortable beating of Malta u21, Sweden u21 should repeat the dose this afternoon, albeit losing 5 of their last 6 away matches.
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2pm - Georgia v Liechtenstein - 1.31
Standout stats
Standout stats
- a friendly so caution advised. When a team is quoted at higher that 1.2 atgainst Liechtenstein it is a hint that they are perhaps not the best themselves!
Georgia
- 8 defeats and 3 draws in their last 11 friendly matches, and you want me to back you at 1.31? Where's the punchline?
- Kazakhstan, one of the dodgepots you lump in with Andorra, San Marina, Liechtenstein et al, beat Georgia 1-0
- very strong defensively at home, 0-1 loss to Spain, 0-0's v Egypt and France and a 0-1 loss to Finland might be their saving grace this afternoon
Liechtenstein
- since 2003, wins against Saudi Arabia, Andorra and San Marino tell you which level Liechtenstein function at.
- 5 consecutive defeats and 1-0 losses to malta and Azerbaijan
- apart from an away 5-0 spanking from Hungary, Liechtenstein have kept things respectable away, only conceding more than 2 goals in 1 of their last 7 aways
Profitable in-play opportunities
- your trading decisions will be based on your confidence in Georgia . If Liechtenstein score first, I will back 0-1 and lay Liechtenstein of reasonable odds, given their 0-1 wins in the distant past.
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2pm - Russia v Armenia - 1.41 home
Standout stats
- last met in euro qualifiers in 2011 and Russia won 3-1 after conceding first. More of that if you please today!!
Russia
- since March 2011 only 3 defeats , all 1-0
- unbeaten in 17 at home in all competitions
- unbeaten in 14 friendlies but 9 draws
- unbeaten in 7 at home with 4 score draws and a 2-1 win
Armenia
- teams armenia have beaten in friendlies might give us a clue to their level - Kazakhstan ( 1-0 and 3-0), Uzbekistan ( 3-1), canada ( 3-1), Lithuania ( 4-2)
- no win in their last 8 away friendlies
- failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away friendlies
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Russia should not lose here but 14 friendlies seeing 9 draws suggests the will to not lose is greater than the will to win.
- Armenia have been struggling for goals so this should be a Russia win rather than a typical friendly draw. If Armenia do score, it will be a good DRT
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4pm - Northern Ireland U21 v Italy U21 - 1.35 away
Standout stats
- 3-0 in November 2013 , an easy enough victory but it took 2 80th+ minute goals to add a gloss to the scoreline - a defensive Northern Ireland?
NI U21
- 11 consecutive defeats ended with a 1-0 win over Cyprus u21 and that took an 85th minute goal.
- in 9 of those defeats NI u21 failed to score.
- wins at home have come against the likes of San Marino u21 and Faroes u21 so that's NI U21's comfort zone!
Italy U21
- defeats in 2013 v Spain and Belgium, both heavyweights at Under 21 and full international levels.
- 11 of Italy u21's last 12 wins have been to nil., so therein lies your recipe for success.
- the last away match was a 1-0 loss to Serbia U21 but prior to that an unbeaten away run of 12 saw 9 wins, and 7 clean sheets
Profitable in-play opportunities
- a team having trouble scoring v a team keeping clean sheets suggests one thing here. Should NI u21 do the unexpected and score first, I would back Italy u21 here.
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4pm - Poland U21 v Lithuania U21 - 1.39 home
Standout stats
- this is a friendly and I'd rather focus initially in the under 21 championship matches as we know there that the teams are genuinely trying.
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5pm - Germany U20 v Switzerland U20 - 1.38 home
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5pm - Greece v South Korea - 2.08 home
Standout stats
- although the odds are not appealing, nor are the teams, I think Greece should show the defensive patterns which are characteristic of that nation
- these 2 last met in 2010 when Korea won 2-0
Greece
- only 1 defeat in 16 matches in all competitions
- 6 clean sheets in their last 8 matches
- only 2 defeats at home in 21 matches in all competitions
- 7 clean sheets in their last 8 homes
- only 1 defeat to Romania in 15 friendlies.
- only 2 wins in 14 home friendlies were 1-0's . There have been 9 draws in those 14 matches
South Korea
- recent losses to Russia, Mexico and the USA in friendlies
- wins v Mali, Switzerland and Costa Rica
- have lost 5 of their last 6 away friendlies
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the possibility of a draw suggests the value is in laying the Greeks if they score first.
- a messy match where draws follow the Greeks in home friendlies. Solace in Korea being apparent poor travellers?
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5pm - South Africa v Brazil - 1.25 away
- I'll not research this match fully, suffice to say that in Brazil we have a team more than capable of extricating themselves from a losing position, let's just home Bafana Bafana consent to score first.
- 2 1-0 wins for Brazil in friendlies suggests perhaps a pre-match back of 0-0 to lay off a bit later on.
- A 1-0 win for South Africa v Spain must have had a story behind it in their last friendly?
- Only England and the Swiss ( 1-0 Dani Alves own goal) have beaten Brazil in recent friendlies.
- If you want to be safe, then back South Africa 1-0 pre match incase they "do a Spain".
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515pm - Austria U21 v Albania U21 - 1.19 home
Standout stats
- this is an under 21 Championship match as opposed to some of the under 21 friendlies being played today
- A 0-1 Austria win care of an own goal in August 2013
Austria U21
- 5 wins and a loss to Spain in their last 6 matches in this competition.
- 3 wins in their last 4 home matches scoring 4-3-2-4 and conceding 1-2-6-2
Albania u21
- only 3 wins in 27 matches says it all. Wins were v Azerbaijan, Moldova ( a 4-3 thriller), and a 0-2 v Hungary
- that Hungary win came in the last away match. Prior to that albania u21 had lost 11 ( conceding between 2 and 4 with regularity) and had a 0-0 v Russia u21 ( a warning sign?)
Profitable in-play opportunities
- it was extremely tight in Albania on the previous encounter and the recent 0-0 v Russia away would suggest the value in the 0-0 pre match back to lay. But then confidence shudders to a halt when we learn Albania have conceded 2-4 goals in ll recent away defeats. Austria have goals in them at home but do concede. A hope therefore that Albania score first.
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530pm - Denmark U21 v Estonia U21 - 1.17 home. You know the drill. 1.17 suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil
Standout stats
- this is a competitive UEFA under 21 Championship match
Denmark u21
- unbeaten in 7 with 5 wins, and have scored 6-2-2-2-3-2- in their most recent matches.
- A 0-2 win over Estonia u21 in June 2013 was part of that run of wins
- 2 draws v Serbia and Slovenia and a defeat v Spain the only aberrations at home in 8 matches
Estonia u21
- a general 2013 focus it seems on defence has seen 6 under 2.5 goal matches, 3 1-0 results ( defeats to Denmark and Russia ) and a 0-1 win over Slovenia
- that defensive form as pervading away matches
Profitable in play opportunities
- a suggestion that on current form Denmark will score 2 goals at least, but they may be made to wait for the opening goal if Estonia u21 continue to be ultra defensive as they have deliberately been since 2013.
- Our hope as DRT'ers will lay in a concerted period of 0-0 . You may want to speculate on a throwaway back of 0-0 at its highest point pre-match incase this tough to beat Estonia turn up. You know, though ,( as well as I do) that 1.17 suggests 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil
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530pm - Saudi Arabia v Indonesia - 1.12 home
Standout stats
- this is an asian cup qualifier
- in March 2013, Saudi Arabia won 2-1 after conceding first. That is hardly the scoreline you'd associate with a 1.12 shot
Saudi Arabia
- unbeaten in 4 until a 4-1 loss to Qatar
- have a very solid asian cup record, losing only to Japan in 2006 in all AC matches since 2003
- tend to concede of late when they win, characterised by 2-1 wins against China, Indonesia, and Iraq
Indonesia
- wins recently have come against the likes of Kyrgistan and the Philippines
- an eyecatching 1-1 draw with China in this competition in October 2013
- no win in 13 though from 2003, 2009, 2010 and 2013
- seem competitive in defeat, with 2 2-1 defeats, 3 1-0 defeats, 2 1-1's and a 2-0 loss to Iraq
- have lost their last 3 aways 1-0 v Australia, Iraq and China with 42nd, 65th and 44th minute goals.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- I am not sure how much faith I'd place in Saudi arabia. At the odds, if indeed 1.12 is accurate and not illiquid, the Saudi's are layable to very little liability
- Both sides could score here although Indonesia have lost 1-0 in their last 3 aways
- This suggests a back of 0-0 pre match if the markets are liquid to get out about the 40th minute if we last that long
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530pm - Switzerland U21 v Liechtenstein U21 - 1.02 home
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6pm - Colombia v Tunisia - 1.31 home
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6pm - England U21 v Wales U21 - 1.16 home
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6pm - Portugal U21 v FYR Macedonia U21 - 1.14 home
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7pm - Gibraltar v Estonia - 1.16 away
Standout stats
- quick research here. A home team which gets beaten 4-1 by Faroes suggests that the Gibraltan keeper will have a sore back from picking the ball out of the net.
- Estonia are unbeaten in their last 5 friendlies, winning 2 against Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein
- Expect this 1.16 quote to translate to 3+ goals .
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7pm - Romania v Argentina - 1.49 away
Standout stats
Romania
- reasonable form in recent matches in all competitions saw defeats against netherlands, Germany and Turkey
- only 1 loss in 10 friendlies was a 4-3 defeat to Slovenia.
- unbeaten in 8 home matches
Argentina
- a forward line of Higuan, Messi, Aguero , Lavezzi, a midfield with the likes of Mascherano, di maria, Gago, and Rodriguez makes for a sumptuous attacking unit.
- only Brazil have beaten Argentina in the last 15 friendlies
- 4 wins and a draw with Ecuador in their last 5 friendlies
- only 2 defeats in 10 away friendlies were again v Brazil.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Messi has 2 hatricks in recent matches so is scoring now for the Argies who have clear advantage today ( if of course up for this friendly.) They have the ability to score 2+ as they have in recent friendly wins.
- Romania re unbeaten in 8 matches now at home in friendlies but those 8 opponents were not of the ilk of Argentina
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730pm - San Marino U21 v Finland U21 - 1.19 away
Standout stats
- these 2 have not met recently
- this is a UEFA under 21 championship match
San Marino u21
- all defeats bar 2 wins and a 0-0 draw since 2004!
- failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches. They beat Wales 1-0 which must have shocked the welsh.
- have failed to score in 13 of their last 15 home matches.
Finland u21
- recent defeats to Moldova and england for Finland u21.
- Have it in them to score plenty against minnows in 1-3 away wins v Lithuania and a 1-5 away win v Wales u21
- have lost their last 2 away matches , the aforementioned Moldova and Finland results
Profitable in-play opportunities
- this is of course all about faith in Finland u21 winning.Against Wales u21 and Moldova u21, it took a late 40th+ minute goal to open the scoring. So therein might lie our angle. A pre match 0-0 back to lay can afford us a low stakes interest.
- If it is a concerted 0-0 , have faith in the minnows wilting and lay under 3.5 goals hopefully sub 1.10
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745pm - Belgium v Ivory Coast - 1.74 away
Standout stats
- a wonderful generation of Belgian footballers at present and obvious favourites IF they take friendlies at all seriously.
Belgium
- no win in 3 friendlies and 2 defeats v Columbia ( 0-2) and japan (2-3)
- no win win 3 home friendlies is a sequence I am sure they'd like to end although it does not seem to be top priority
Ivory Coast
- have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 friendlies. Lost recently to Mexico and Ghana
- only recent friendly away wins have come via Tunisia and Austria#
Profitable in-play opportunities
- tough to call this one as obviously Belgium are not in that winning mode which comes with competitive matches. Still, they have a 3 match winless streak to end and a 2 match home losing streak to end. IS that enough to motivate them?
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745pm - Germany v Chile - 1.46 home
Standout stats
- the Germans are as reliable as they come
- we normally get exciting friendlies from the Germans with their normal winning mentality put to one side
- Recent friendlies have seen 1-2 losses to France, 5-3 losses to Switzerland,1-3 loss to Argentina and 4-3 loss to the USA
- Against South American opposition, we've seen a 3-3 home draw with paraguay and a 2-4 away win v Ecuador as well as that 1-3 loss to Argentina
- At home Germany have won only 1 of their last 4 friendlies, losing to France and Argentina, drawing with Paraguay and beating Israel.
- In 2011 we saw 2 South American sides beaten. 2-1 v Uruguay and 3-2 v Brazil
Chile
- Chile have only lost 1 of their last 8 friendlies, a 2-1 loss to Brazil. In this run of 8, they have also drawn 2-2 with brazil, drawn 2-2 with Spain, and beat England 0-2
- that win v England was 1 of only 2 away wins in 13 matches
- 3-2-2-0-2 conceded in the last 5 aways
Profitable in-play opportunities
- Germany do not take friendlies seriously, that much is clear and I would be a layer of theirs were they to take the lead. Although Germany's last 2 friendlies have put the brakes on goals ( 1-1 away to italy and 0-1away win v England), will we see a more focussed Germany pre-World Cup, or will this be the traditional chance to see fringe players and care more about what they get out of the match rather than the incidental scoreline?
- Chile are no slouches which makes that 1.46 for Germany a little short for me
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8pm - England v Denmark - 1.69 home
Standout stats
- so tough to call as we know England will wring the changes at halftime
- both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads albeit 2003, 2005 and 2011 so irrelevant
England
- 2 consecutive friendly defeats against Chile and German . Will they tolerate a 3rd at Wem-ber-ley?
- those were the only 2 defeats in 12 matches in all competitions
- 2 consecutive home defeats to, to nil, echoes Man City of late who put those stats to bed.
- England have conceded in their last 8 friendlies so a case of not needing to win?
Denmark
- the danes have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 friendlies
- only 2 wins in their last 10 away friendlies were against Slovakia and Canada
- recent away defeats v Macedonia, Poland ( last 2 away matches) and Scotland
Profitable in-play opportunities
- a laissez faire attitude from England it seems. They have not scored in their last 2 home matches , losing both so expectation is for that sequence to end? And in the danes they meet a team who don't like travelling!
- I would favour England today. Both sides have a tendency to score and concede in their friendlies so a real hope the Danes can land the first blow to allow a trade
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8pm - France v Netherlands - 2.32 home
845pm - Portugal v Cameroon - 1.37 home
9pm - Spain v Italy - 1.61 home
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