Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
155 Salisbury
Betting forecast: 7/4 Little Palaver, 9/2 Buckleberry, 9/2 Divine Law, 11/2 Well Fleeced, 13/2 Rockaroundtheclock, 16/1 Chetan, 16/1 Pivot Point, 20/1 Room Key, 25/1 Hidden Agenda, 25/1 Mullionheir.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is reasonably open with several having already achieved placed form but just about the pick of them is LITTLE PALAVER, who stayed on nicely at Goodwood and should be well suited by this extra furlong. Buckleberry and Divine Law come from division one of the maiden at Windsor 15 days ago, while division two runner-up Well Fleeced is also in the mix. None of the newcomers look obvious types on paper.[Steve Boow]
2nd only a few days ago, Little Palaver is expected to at least place again.
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805 Worcester
Betting forecast: 4/7 Spartan Angel, 3/1 Kentford Myth, 7/1 Call Me Emma, 12/1 Sirrah Star, 16/1 Queen Of The Stage, 25/1 Alderley Heights, 33/1 The Iron Maiden, 40/1 Jeans Lady, 100/1 Shakespeare Dancer, 100/1 Velvet Cloud.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dual bumper winner SPARTAN ANGEL was slightly disappointing when only fourth over 2m here on last month's hurdling debut but ought to take this uncompetitive event. Kentford Myth seems rather one-paced but can fare best of the rest.[Chris Wilson]
A maiden hurdle so not the ideal race. Spartan Angel is expected to at least place, although I am not sure whether we will see the 1.2 minimum odds .
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
1pm - Lindell v Riba ( 1.19) - 402nd v 87th and 0-1 head to heads - WIN 2 SETS
115pm - Pouille ( 1.21) v T Wang - 200th v 284th - WIN 2 SETS
145pm - K Anderson ( 1.36) v D Evans - 18th v 139th - WIN 2 SETS
2pm - A Ivanovic ( 1.35) v Barthel - 13th v 57th and 2-1 to Barthel in head to heads - WIN 2 SETS
215pm - Baghdatis ( 1.18) v Klahn - 118th v 72nd - WIN 3 SETS
215pm - Istomin ( 1.35) v Dustov - 49th v 152nd - WIN 2 SETS
215pm - J Benneteau ( 1.11) v Estrella Burgos - 46th v no ranking? - ESTRELLA WINS 3 SETS
230pm - Grigelis v G Muller ( 1.2) - 252nd v 108th - WINS 2 SETS
330pm - Ma Cilic (1.18) v Matosevic - 26th v 60th and 3-0 head to heads - MATO WINS 2 SETS
4pm - Stepanek ( 1.23) v Kukushkin - 42nd v 50th and 1-0 head to heads - WINS 2 SETS
430pm - Monfils( 1.38) v B Becker - 20th v 79th and 4-0 to Monfils in head to heads. - WINS 2 SETS
5pm - Velotti v Cecchinato ( 1.34) - 203rd v 145th - WINS 2 SETS
515pm - Dimitrov ( 1.13) v J Ward - 13th v 155th - WINS 2 SERTS
7pm - Trungelliti v Andujar - 1.24 - 271st v 80th - WINS 2 SETS
7pm - Duckworth v Berdych( 1.05) - 167th v 6th - a straight sets win for Berdych may allow us to get a 1.2 odds bet - WINS 3 SETS
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
1230pm - Home Utd v Harimau Muda B - 1.19 home. The away side have lost 12 of their last 14 matches. - WINS 3-1
5pm - Tammeka Tartu v Levadia Tallinn - 1.13 away - can Levadia win both halves?
SHORTLIST
With a dearth of football opportunities today, the shortlist is likely to be loaded in favour of tennis.
155 Salisbury
Betting forecast: 7/4 Little Palaver, 9/2 Buckleberry, 9/2 Divine Law, 11/2 Well Fleeced, 13/2 Rockaroundtheclock, 16/1 Chetan, 16/1 Pivot Point, 20/1 Room Key, 25/1 Hidden Agenda, 25/1 Mullionheir.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is reasonably open with several having already achieved placed form but just about the pick of them is LITTLE PALAVER, who stayed on nicely at Goodwood and should be well suited by this extra furlong. Buckleberry and Divine Law come from division one of the maiden at Windsor 15 days ago, while division two runner-up Well Fleeced is also in the mix. None of the newcomers look obvious types on paper.[Steve Boow]
2nd only a few days ago, Little Palaver is expected to at least place again. - 2nd 10/11
Might be worth chancing Little Palaver today although it is risky backing a one time out horse ( albeit 2nd on his sole run), against a smattering of possible improvers and debutants who , of course, could be anything! I would suggest trying to get a winning treble from the football and tennis first.
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7pm - Duckworth v Berdych( 1.05) - a straight sets win looks extremely likely. WON 3 SETS
515pm - Dimitrov ( 1.13) v J Ward - 13th v 155th - a massive rankings discrepancy should see Dimitrov gain a straight sets win for us to increase the odds - WIN 2 SETS
430pm - Monfils( 1.38) v B Becker - 20th v 79th and 4-0 to Monfils in head to heads. - slightly riskier but 4-0 head to heads is appealing. A solid enough French Open for Monfils may inject some belief. - WIN 2 SETS
145pm - K Anderson ( 1.36) v D Evans - 18th v 139th - An air of reliability against Anderson here , as well as a solid rankings discrepancy. - WIN 2 SETS
1pm - Lindell v Riba ( 1.19) - 402nd v 87th and 0-1 head to heads - a big rankings gap here - WIN 2 SETS
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1230pm - Home Utd v Harimau Muda B - 1.19 home. The away side have lost 12 of their last 14 matches. - you take your medicine if this does not win, reliability is not one of the strong suits when betting in Singaporean football. 4-0 though to Home United in a previous head to head, and Harimau are used to losing. WIN 3-1
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