Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
Great day yesterday, perhaps I should rush more often! Tampines Rovers WIN, HIFK WIN, Kohlschreiber WIN, Wawrinka WIN, Nishikori WIN. You will have made a successful treble yesterday.
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
530 Cork
Betting forecast: 4/5 Achnaha, 5/1 Rightway, 8/1 Muileata, 8/1 Tar Isteach, 8/1 Zarawi, 10/1 The Scourge, 14/1 Giorgi, 14/1 Law Equity, 25/1 Dangerous Flower, 25/1 Halul, 33/1 Chase The Challis, 50/1 Hedge Ffund.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With an official rating of 93 ACHNAHA has very strong prospects in a maiden of this standard. There is not much between several of those with place clams, such as Zarawi, Tar Isteach and Muileata. [Alan Sweetman]
Price gapper with a solid handicap mark running in a maiden. A sure thing to place? Yesterday's maiden failed to place.
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245 Salisbury
Betting forecast: Evs Belle D´or, 4/1 Alys Love, 9/2 Makruma, 10/1 Lilly Junior, 16/1 Cayman Cry, 20/1 Dubai Hadeia, 33/1 Perfect Outcome, 33/1 Shanghai Sunrise.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alys Love and Makruma have some decent form but they did not show it last time, whereas BELLE D'OR (nap) looks to have both the form and the potential to make this an excellent opportunity judged on her close call first time out at Newmarket.[Richard Austen]
Always risky these maidens as we saw yesterday. 3 places available.
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
1245pm - Mannarino v Zopp - 1.38 Mann
2pm - Ma Gonzalez ( 1.36) v G Elias
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
12pm - Denmark (W) v Iceland (W) - 1.32 home
6pm - Hafnarfjordur v Thor - 1.26 home
8pm - France v Honduras - 1.34 home
11pm - Argentina v Bosnia - 1.39 home
SHORTLIST
I hope you saw yesterday why I don't like horse racing. A maiden with a good chance finishes 3rd in a 2 the place race , making me reluctant to follow up with a horse racing selection today. Rosol won and Uruguay shockingly lost, but their odds were too high. Did you play?
8pm - France v Honduras - 1.34 home - although South American teams have been winning consistently, France look really solid against a Honduras side who failed to score in 2010.
This would be a solitary selection for me today.
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