Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
Australia won at 1/8 , Giovanni Boldini won at 8/13, Makhfar won at 1/2
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220 Uttoxeter
Betting forecast: 7/4 She´s Late, 2/1 Book Of Excuses, 2/1 No Substitute, 14/1 Flash Crash, 20/1 Entry To Evrywhere, 33/1 Ronnies Well, 66/1 Poppies Milan, 100/1 Battledancer, 100/1 Sammy Blade.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHE'S LATE has solid form claims based on her Market Rasen third last time out and has the potential to improve further in this sphere given her ability on the Flat (RPR 95), especially as her two wins under that code coincided with the two occasions she wore cheekpieces, applied for the first time today over hurdles. No Substitute is unlikely to be far away but he's a ten-race maiden and a greater threat could be hurdle/stable debutant Book Of Excuses, an impressive Irish point winner the last twice. [Ben Hutton]
3 under 14/1 . Will the favcourite place? Will we get 1.2 minimum?
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435 Windsor
Betting forecast: 7/4 The Third Man, 9/2 Hedge End, 6/1 Lacock, 7/1 Jersey Brown, 7/1 Rayoumti, 8/1 Sweet Alibi, 12/1 Filosofo, 20/1 Final Countdown.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hedge Fund and Jersey Brown have registered placed efforts in handicaps that need some respect, while Lacock is one who could easily have improvement in him, but the most potential surely comes with THE THIRD MAN (nap). The Gosden-trained colt did not live up to the market support on his recent reappearance but still showed plenty of promise on just his second start and this time he can emerge from the shadows to register a handicap win.[Richard Austen]
8 runners and 3 places, 3-2 last 2 races but this is a handicap
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Yesterday's shortlisters results are in the Shortlist section - there are far too many for me to find results for. If you are interested, check for yourself at www.tennis.com
No tennis matches of interest today.
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FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Yesterday - Zulte-Waregam scoring 6, Levadia won 19-0 lol.
Today
3pm - Haka v FC Jazz - 1.35 home
3pm - KTP v FC Viikingit - 1.22 home
4pm - Belshina Bobruisk v BATE Borisov - 1.29 away
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SHORTLIST
Yesterday
Makhfar won, Nishikori is in a ding-dong with Bolelli and I said yesterday 3-0 set betting is not risk free. zulte Waregam won with real ease, scoring 6. Place only was 1.05 so not worth it. Win only I suppose would have sufficed.
Today
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