Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
I left you with my single bet of France at 1.34 to win ( 15th June)
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
A winner and a 3rd placed horse ( place payout) and perhaps I should have had faith in the gee-gees yesterday
Today
220 ayr
Betting forecast: 4/6 Pretzel, 6/1 Homestretch, 6/1 Sir Guy Porteous, 10/1 Braidley, 10/1 Mime Dance, 14/1 Azagal, 20/1 Mr Matthews.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tim Easterby has won two of the last three runnings but his Azagal has a bit to find on recent evidence and, although the penalised Sir Guy Porteous may be able to bag an uncontested lead, he lacks the scope for improvement of PRETZEL (nap). Roger Varian's progressive 3yo finished a highly respectable second to Muteela on his reappearance and, although 7lb higher here, that form was franked in no uncertain terms when the winner followed up in a fiercely competitive handicap at Royal Ascot this week. [Richard Young]
Only 2 places but this is a whopping price gap.
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850 Haydock
Betting forecast: Evs Taqneen, 11/4 Alketios, 5/1 Pantoloni, 5/1 Protected, 33/1 Vale Mentor, 100/1 Echologic.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be a good opportunity for TAQNEEN to make it third time lucky under conditions that suit. Alketios looks his main danger on form, although the well-bred Pantoloni is surely capable of a lot better than he showed on his 2yo debut.[Adrian Cook]
Another 2 place only race but this favourite has progressed from 4th to 2nd
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805 Lingfield
Betting forecast: 4/6 Passionate Affair, 7/1 Witch From Rome, 8/1 Monsieur Chabal, 10/1 Beauchamp Melba, 12/1 Black Tie Dancer, 12/1 Burmese Breeze, 20/1 Blazing Chilli, 33/1 Archduchess.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Taking a short price about a maiden in an AW seller isn't everyone's idea of fun, but PASSIONATE AFFAIR won't be found an easier opening.[Graham Wheldon]
8 runners and 3 places but a seller. Still this is the biggest price gap of the day
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405 Newmarket
Betting forecast: 2/7 Made With Love, 5/1 Dream Spirit, 10/1 Four Cheers, 25/1 Bushy Glade, 25/1 Remy, 25/1 Tuddenham.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This year's Wood Ditton has produced winners even it wasn't the hottest of renewals and runner-up MADE WITH LOVE should be another unless one of the newcomers can trouble him, as it's highly unlikely any of the others to have run will.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
This may be a win only bet here as I cannot see Made with Love touching 1.2 to place.
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
I should have had faith in Madison Keys yesterday as Heather Watson was not there on merit, she came through because of a retirement from Kvitova
There are actually no tennis bets today. It must be the calm before the Wimbledon storm.
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FOOTBALL SHORTIES
No football bets yesterday. Italy were 1.51 but not nailed on at all. My DRT research actually put up laying them.
5pm - Argentina v Iran - 1.14 Argentina
8pm - Germany v Ghana - 1.32 Germany
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SHORTLIST
It's a toughie today with my usual staple of tennis absent.
Argentina should win comfortably but how do we up the odds to 1.2 at minimum? I would look at perhaps Argentina winning at halftime, or over 3.5 goals ( or whichever goals market is 1.2 ish)
Germany should run out winners against a Ghanaian side who won't be lacking in fitness and will love the conditions.
We may have to delve into the horse racing today to get the treble up?
220 Ayr Pretzel and the 805 Lingfield Passionate affair both have really eyecatching price gaps,One is a 2 the place race and the other a seller ( 3 places available) which should help us get that 1.2, 1.25 or 1.33 odds we need
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