Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
Cougar Mountain 1st 8/11, Sugar Lump 1st 10/11, Ilewindelilah placed 3rd 5/4 and is yet another handicap shortie not winning. Something to remember!
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Today
340 Carlisle
Betting forecast: 4/6 Scallop, 3/1 Mediate, 5/1 Law Keeper, 14/1 Legal Advisor, 25/1 Spot The Pro, 50/1 Sorcier, 50/1 Wor Lass.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race entirely revolves around whether any of the newcomers can make a race of it with SCALLOP, who had two subsequent winners behind on her Lingfield debut and will probably win regardless.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Very risky as there are debutants in this maiden field, and there's only 2 places available. Fav is a Stoute horse, 2nd last time out, and 2 horses behind it in that race have won since.
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620 Hamilton
Betting forecast: 1/2 Operateur, 7/1 Edas, 8/1 Harrison´s Cave, 8/1 Hunting Tower, 20/1 Jebulani, 20/1 Silver Tigress, 33/1 Grethel.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these have some serious questions to answer but the exception is OPERATEUR, who has already won here three times this month and escapes a penalty for his latest success. Veteran Edas didn't run badly from out the weights at Haydock last month and may fare best of the rest.[Chris Wilson]
A huge price gapper in a yukky race - amateur rider's handicaps can be a bit keystone cops. 2 places might suggest 1.2 for the to place only market?
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650 Hamilton
Betting forecast: 4/6 Arabian Bride, 5/1 Elizabeth Ernest, 7/1 Grand Proposal, 7/1 Why No Rein, 10/1 What Could She Be, 50/1 Lady Charlie, 66/1 Blencathra.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ARABIAN BRIDE made a pleasing debut at Carlisle recently and may not need to improve to open her account here. Grand Proposal and Elizabeth Ernest have both shown some ability, while Why No Rein and What Could She Be are newcomers to keep an eye on.[Chris Wilson]
Johnston/Fanning - what a combination! Can their Arabian Bride place in the first 2? Only the one run but the betting forecaster sees this maiden as home already.
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230 Newcastle
Betting forecast: 8/11 Aktabantay, 9/2 Vimy Ridge, 6/1 Geordie George, 6/1 Sea Wolf, 14/1 Just The Tip, 33/1 Dominada.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should not be much between Vimy Ridge and Sea Wolf again, but this should go to AKTABANTAY. He has nothing to prove in terms of trip or ground, gets weight from his main rivals and, although disappointing on the face of it when chinned at skinny odds at Nottingham last time, that form has worked out well. [Richard Young]
A 2 year old novice stakes - Gawd 'Elp us! Will this fav place in the first 2? 2 year olds are an unruly bunch at times
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600 Tipperary
Betting forecast: 8/11 Rule The Waves, 9/2 Future Icon, 6/1 Folk Law, 7/1 Lupie, 12/1 Laharde, 20/1 Trust Your Opinion, 50/1 Kaldoun Dancer, 50/1 Well Done Me.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RULE THE WAVES makes a quick reappearance in first-time blinkers following a promising third behind a stable companion at Leopardstown. He should prove too strong for Future Icon who showed ability first time in a good maiden at the Curragh. [Alan Sweetman]
Aiden O'Brien and son on board yet another 1 time out maiden expected to improve rapidly. That seems to be the theme today
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
See the shortlist for those tennis bets I shortlisted .
1030am - Germain Gigounon v Maximo Gonzalez ( 1.22) - 259th v 116th
1030am - Albert Ramos Vinolas ( 1.15) v Hugo Dellien - 99th v 318th
1130am - Richard Gasquet ( 1.26) v Nick Kyrgios - 14th v 144th - 1-0 H2H
1130am - Philipp Kohlschreiber ( 1.14) v Simone Bolelli - 28th v 132nd - 2-1 H2H
1130am - Denis Kudla v Kei Nishikori ( 1.09) - 136th v 12th
1130am - Milos Raonic v Jack Sock - 1.22 Milos - 9th v 77th - 2-1 H2H
1130am - Jiri Vesely v Gael Monfils ( 1.35) - 68th v 21st
1pm - Lukas Rosol v Rafael Nadal ( 1.1) - 52nd v 1st - 1-1 H2H
1pm - Serena Williams ( 1.03) v Chanelle Scheepers - 1st v 94th and 2-0 H2H
130pm - Lourdes Dominguez Lino v Kirsten Flipkens ( 1.2) - 131st v 26th 0-1 H2H
130pm - Ana Ivanovic( 1.18) v Jie Zheng - 11th v 66th - 2-2 H2H
130pm - Andrea Petkovic ( 1.19) v Irina-Camelia Begu - 20th v 81st
130pm - Julian Reister v Denis Istomin ( 1.24) - 110th v 45th - 1-1 H2H
2pm - Silvia Soler Espinosa v Eugenie Bouchard ( 1.11) - 75th v 13th - 0-1 H2H
230pm - Angelique Kerber ( 1.44)v Heather Watson - 7th v 60th
230pm - Stan Wawrinka ( 1.15) v Yen-Hsun Lu - 3rd v 47th
430pm - Timea Bacsinszky v Maria Sharapova ( 1.08) - 85th v 5th 0-1 H2H
430pm - Feliciano Lopez ( 1.19)v Ante Pavic - 26th v 163rd
430pm - Gilles Muller v Roger Federer ( 1.08) - 103rd v 4th 0-3 H2H
430pm - Jarkko Nieminen v John Isner ( 1.36) - 62nd v 11th 0-4 H2H
530pm - Simona Halep( 1.07) v Lesia Tsurenko - 3rd v 170th and 3-0 H2H
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FOOTBALL SHORTIES
No football yesterday although I was sweet on the Swiss in my DRT research and should have gone with that despite the 1.48 odds
Nothing again today. The Germans are 1.6 to beat the USA in a match where a draw sends both sides through. Conspiracy anyone?
Portugal must win today and at 2.1 , the market is telling you this is no gimme against a Ghana side with a strong midfield.
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SHORTLIST
Yesterday
Did you follow in time order? Sugar Lump won, Fognoni won and Bautista Agut won albeit I am not sure if these were consecutive matches. The match I feared, Azarenka's , produced a loss. To be honest I should not have included it. I did, after all, mention my concerns with decline and injury . At least we won't seee that bell-end DJ on our TV screens. Small blessings!
No football today, again.
620 Hamilton
Betting forecast: 1/2 Operateur, 7/1 Edas, 8/1 Harrison´s Cave, 8/1 Hunting Tower, 20/1 Jebulani, 20/1 Silver Tigress, 33/1 Grethel.
I am taken by the huge price gap. A hope, with only 2 places, that Operateur is 1.2 or thereabouts in the place only market. Multiple handicap winners are a concern as they can peeter out, but this one escapes a penalty for his latest success.
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340 Carlisle
Betting forecast: 4/6 Scallop, 3/1 Mediate, 5/1 Law Keeper, 14/1 Legal Advisor, 25/1 Spot The Pro, 50/1 Sorcier, 50/1 Wor Lass.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race entirely revolves around whether any of the newcomers can make a race of it with SCALLOP, who had two subsequent winners behind on her Lingfield debut and will probably win regardless.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Another big risk as this is a maiden with 2 places only but Scallop's form has been franked by 2 horses behind him in his last race winning recently.
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1130am - Richard Gasquet ( 1.26) v Nick Kyrgios - 14th v 144th - 1-0 H2H - slightly suspiciously high odds for such a gap in the rankings.
230pm - Angelique Kerber ( 1.44)v Heather Watson - 7th v 60th - Guernsey's Own, Heather, likely to be a plucky loser? She is in the ascendency and on home soil, but a top 10 player is,well, a top 10 player.
430pm - Feliciano Lopez ( 1.19)v Ante Pavic - 26th v 163rd - another big gap in the rankings
530pm - Simona Halep( 1.07) v Lesia Tsurenko - 3rd v 170th and 3-0 H2H - not sure we'll see 1.2+ odds in the 2-0 set betting market. Halep was hugely impressive in her opener and I will have a sneaky win only punt on her.
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