Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
200 Chepstow
Betting forecast: 4/7 Fuwairt, 9/2 Red Tornado, 10/1 Gamesters Lad, 12/1 Indian Joe, 12/1 Jaganory, 14/1 Invincible Zeb.
A big price gapper here. Frankie Dettori onboard. 2 places for this maiden. Will we get 1.2 for the place? 1st 1.4 win and 1.13 place
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745 Carlisle
Betting forecast: 8/11 My Spirit, 9/2 Mitchelton, 5/1 Maven, 6/1 Spavento, 12/1 Cosmic Halo.
a class 3 handicap and only 1 run for this big price gapper. - 1st 1.2 place
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245 leicester
Betting forecast: 5/4 Sir Pedro, 11/2 Bond Club, 6/1 Sandsman´s Girl, 7/1 Vodka Time, 9/1 Ishi Honest, 14/1 Smart Life, 16/1 Ficelle, 20/1 Blue Clumber, 20/1 Go Charlie, 40/1 Oakley Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SIR PEDRO has not been tried before on testing ground and does not always show what he is capable of, but it is hard to ignore his excellent chance at these weights. Vodka Time gave his first positive signal on his latest start and that puts him next on the list, although the likes of Bond Club and Ficelle have done more to show their effectiveness in the mud.[Richard Austen]
a big price gapper but this is a seller and this lot are not going to win the Guineas. Soft ground today - 4th 1.2 place
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
10am - Anderson v Ferrer ( 1.11) 20th v 5th and 2-2 in head to heads 1-4
130pm - Stephens v Halep ( 1.26) - 4th v 19th and 1-2 head to heads -WIN 2 SETS
230pm - Bryan/Bryan ( 1.29)v Granollers/M Lopez -LOST
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
11am - Denmark U19 v Germany U19 - 1.38 away 0-4
730pm - Spain U19 v Lithuania U19 - 1.06 home 2-0-
745pm - Dundalk v UCD - 1.31 home 5-2
745pm - St Patricks v Drogheda - 1.3 home 6-0
SHORTLIST
A tricky day today. The deeper we get into major tennis tournaments , the closer the matches get.
130pm - Stephens v Halep ( 1.26) - 4th v 19th and 1-2 head to heads - Simone Halep has been getting a lot of positive press this year and I suppose a number 4 player must have a good chance of getting u s a 1.26 starter?
745pm - Dundalk v UCD - 1.31 home - sit atop the Irish league - will that count? I don't usually involve myself with Irish football as its poor quality makes it inconsistent.
200 Chepstow
Betting forecast: 4/7 Fuwairt, 9/2 Red Tornado, 10/1 Gamesters Lad, 12/1 Indian Joe, 12/1 Jaganory, 14/1 Invincible Zeb.
A big price gapper here. Frankie Dettori onboard. 2 places for this maiden. Will we get 1.2 for the place?
Not the most encouraging of days , but I said same a couple of days ago and passed with flying colours.
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