Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
I left you with my single bet of France at 1.34 to win ( 15th June)
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
Treve came 3rd so placed
Nordic Queen placed again
According to Sarah placed
Today
230 Ascot
Betting forecast: 5/4 The Great War, 9/2 Baitha Alga, 9/2 Mukhmal, 8/1 Mind Of Madness, 8/1 To Be Determined, 16/1 Ahlan Emarati, 16/1 Snap Shots, 33/1 Mignolino, 50/1 Fine Prince.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is the smallest field for this race since 2004 but it's not short on quality with Woodcote winner Baitha Alga and Lily Agnes scorer Mukhmal both looking useful colts, while the once-raced maiden winners Snap Shots and Ahlan Emarati could be open to plenty of improvement, with the latter particularly interesting given the ground conditions. The US raider To Be Determined adds interest but without doubt the most exciting runner is THE GREAT WAR, a million-dollar purchase who represents leading connections and has been very impressive in two starts to date. He looks every inch a Group horse in the making and now gets the chance to prove it.[Steve Boow]
Million dollar horse? Wow. Surely he'll place? - UNPLACED
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425 Ascot
Betting forecast: 11/8 Leading Light, 11/2 Brown Panther, 15/2 Estimate, 8/1 Tac De Boistron, 9/1 Altano, 12/1 Pale Mimosa, 14/1 Royal Diamond, 20/1 Ahzeemah, 20/1 Simenon, 25/1 Missunited, 33/1 Saddler´s Rock, 40/1 Shwaiman, 50/1 Ralston Road, 66/1 Havana Beat, 66/1 Oriental Fox.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Clear preference is for LEADING LIGHT, whose only defeat since his debut came in the Arc, who has very strong form claims and whose performance when winning over 2m as a 3yo here last June offered a very strong clue that this trip will be within range. The only slight negative is stall 14, meaning he may have to travel a touch wide, but he is still a strong fancy to give Ballydoyle a sixth win in this since 2006. With ground concerns for another leading form contender in Tac De Boistron and the reappearing Estimate facing stronger opposition than when winning this last year, Brown Panther is readily preferred as the main danger. Potential improver Shwaiman may come on enough to claim third. [Mel Cullinan]
15 runner Group 1 race. Will Leading light place at least in this highly competitive affair. WINNER
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550 Lingfield
Betting forecast: 6/4 Colour Catcher, 5/2 Power Play, 3/1 Drumkilbo, 8/1 Midlander, 25/1 Stamp Of Approval, 50/1 Bella Alamoto, 50/1 Just Because, 50/1 Prima Pagina.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: COLOUR CATCHER had a subsequent winner behind when pushing Merdon Castle last time and is preferred to Power Play, who hasn't seen it out in a couple of runs over 5f, among those with experience. Drumkilbo, Lady Cecil's first 2yo runner of the season (Joyeuse was the yard's first 2yo out last season when winning on turf here), looks the most interesting newcomer.[Graham Wheldon]
Look at the betting forecast, 4 horses under 25/1 - will they dominate and thus the favourite place? 3rd 5/6
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All wins in straight sets apart from Halep which was a surprise. Thankfully I did not include her in my Shortlist.
1215pm - F Arguello ( 1.18) v F Baldi - 116th v 851st - WIN 2 SETS
1245pm - Carreno Busta ( 1.18) v F De Paula - 61st v 498th - WIN 2 SETS
130pm - Muguruza ( 1.35) v Vandeweghe - 27th v 69th - VAND WINS 2 SETS
230pm - H Watson v Kvitova ( 1.31) - 70th v 6th - Heather is "at home" - RETIRED
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Finland won, scoring 4, 7 goals in the Czech ladies match, Netherlands won and Spain faltered again. Luckily I did not include Spain in my Shortlist
12pm - Kazakhstan (W) v Austria (W) - 1.21 away 0-3
6pm - Faroe Islands (W) v Sweden (W) - 1.01 away - 5-0
7pm - Iceland (W) v Malta (W) - 1.01 home 5-0
SHORTLIST
4 out of 4 yesterday so no excuses not to nail your evens treble.
1215pm - F Arguello ( 1.18) v F Baldi - 116th v 851st - that's a huge gap in rankings. A hope the price remains at 1.18 on Betfair - WIN 2 SETS
1245pm - Carreno Busta ( 1.18) v F De Paula - 61st v 498th - another huge gap in rankings. -WIN 2 SETS
230pm - H Watson v Kvitova ( 1.31) - 70th v 6th - Heather is "at home" - Guernsey's own Heather Watson should be a "plucky loser" here at Eastbourne - KVITOVA RETIRED
The football does not appeal today. The World Cup matches are tough to predict
This leaves me perhaps with the 230 Ascot - if the Great War "is every inch a group horse", then he should place at least surely? UNPLACED
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