Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
Streetcar of stars 1st 9/4, Hoodna 2nd 5/6,
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Today
530 Curragh
Betting forecast: 1/3 Australia, 7/2 Kingston Hill, 14/1 Fascinating Rock, 16/1 Geoffrey Chaucer, 25/1 Ponfeigh, 33/1 Orchestra, 50/1 Kingfisher.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: As long as the ground does not deteriorate appreciably AUSTRALIA should complete the Derby double. There had been some case for believing it should be a little closer in the betting between him and the admirable Epsom runner-up Kingston Hill, but with doubts cast on the participation of Roger Varian's colt yesterday this could turn into a formality. If an Epsom flop has not left its mark Geoffrey Chaucer may prove best of the supporting-cast. [Alan Sweetman]
Win only I suspect on Australia
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640 Curragh
Betting forecast: 8/11 Giovanni Boldini, 13/2 Captain Joy, 7/1 He´s No Saint, 7/1 Paene Magnus, 10/1 Manalapan, 20/1 Einsteins Folly, 20/1 Talitha Kum.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GIOVANNI BOLDINI (nap)'s chance will increase with every bit the ground hardens. The rest are a bit of a mixed bag and he looks much the safest choice on the back of a fine run in the Jersey. Perhaps Captain Joy can chase him home. [Johnny Ward]
Big price gapper, albeit 2 places only and in a listed race
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555 Doncaster
Betting forecast: 8/11 Makhfar, 3/1 Royal Connoisseur, 7/1 Celestial Knight, 12/1 Smart Dj, 14/1 Bond Empire, 20/1 Bond´s Gift, 50/1 Wimboldsley, 66/1 Jenny Twigg.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Given that his main form rival Royal Connoisseur has a bit to prove after a couple of well-below par efforts, it can pay to stick with MAKHFAR who can go one better than when runner-up on his reappearance at Lingfield last week.[John Acton]
A favourite in a maiden who has come 232 in the last 3 races. Place again?
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Yesterday's shortlisters results are in the Shortlist section - there are far too many for me to find results for. If you are interested, check for yourself at www.tennis.com
1130am - Milos Raonic ( 1.14) v Lukasz Kubot - 9th v 72nd
1pm - Simone Bolelli v Kei Nishikori ( 1.1) - 132nd v 12th
1pm - Angelique Kerber( 1.35) v Kirsten Flipkens - 7th v 26th 1-0 H2H
1pm - Mikhail Kukushkin v Rafael Nadal ( 1.05) - 63rd v 1st - 0-2 H2H never dropped a set 2010 and 2012 best of 2 setters on clay and hard
1pm - Serena Williams ( 1.07)v Alize Cornet - 1st v 24th 3-1 H2H 6-2 6-2 and 6-4 6-4 last time these 2 met . The latter suggests Cornet could push that Williams 1.07 odds up
130pm - Simona Halep ( 1.25) v Belinda Bencic - 3rd v 71st - yesterday's labours by Halep at odds of 1.07 suggests this 1.25 will rise in-play - she took 3 sets yesterday too
130pm - Madison Keys ( 1.37) v Yaroslava Shvedova - 30th v 65th
3pm - Alison Riske v Maria Sharapova ( 1.14) - 44th v 5th - 3 sets in 2010 in Birmingham. Will Riske get a set of Shara today?
3pm - Stan Wawrinka ( 1.41)v Denis Istomin - 3rd v 45th and 2-1 H2H - 5 setter at Wimbledon in 2010, 7-5 last set in Monte Carlo 2013 suggests Istomin will cause problems for Stan and that makes 1.41 too short
430pm - Santiago Giraldo v Roger Federer ( 1.03) - 35th v 4th 0-1 H2H - 3 straight sets in 2010 Us Open
430pm - Williams/Williams ( 1.14) v Barrois/Voegele
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FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Yesterday - St pats won 3-2 , relatively easy win, being 3-1 up for a long while
Today
2pm - KSV Oudenaarde v Zulte-Waregem - 1.18 away - looks like a friendly here with free scoring top flight away team.
2pm - Levadia Tallinn v Tallinna Kalev Jr - 1.02 home - you know the drill with these odds. Look for an over XYZ goals bet whose odds are about 1.2
Brazil are playing today at 1.58 but this will be a toughie against Chile.
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SHORTLIST
Yesterday
St Pats won, Lopez won, Halep won, albeit 3 sets ( I have said before that 2-0 set betting is not really low risk is it, particularly with the ladies, so a mistake putting that in), and Radwanska got her revenge yesterday
Today
Today is a tough day and only Makhfar would appeal if I was being ultra picky. Trusting a 3-0 set win at Wimbledon is risky, as is trusting Zulte Waregam in a pre-season friendly.
555 Doncaster
Betting forecast: 8/11 Makhfar, 3/1 Royal Connoisseur, 7/1 Celestial Knight, 12/1 Smart Dj, 14/1 Bond Empire, 20/1 Bond´s Gift, 50/1 Wimboldsley, 66/1 Jenny Twigg.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Given that his main form rival Royal Connoisseur has a bit to prove after a couple of well-below par efforts, it can pay to stick with MAKHFAR who can go one better than when runner-up on his reappearance at Lingfield last week.[John Acton]
A favourite in a maiden who has come 232 in the last 3 races. Place again? Looks worth place only betting this Makhfar who was a previous shortlister.
The tennis is so tough today. The obvious strong players are priced as such. Using lateral thinking, I would entertain laying Stan Wawrinka in the 3-0 set betting market if the return is similar to a 1.2, 1.25, 1.33 back bet.
1pm - Simone Bolelli v Kei Nishikori ( 1.1) - 132nd v 12th - with such a gap in the rankings 3-0 set betting would have a chance but I am less than confident
2pm - KSV Oudenaarde v Zulte-Waregem - 1.18 away - should spank their opponents Zulte but this is a pre-season friendly
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