26th June DRT bulletin

Copenhagen beat Horsens 1-0 so that Horsens avoidance of the draw continues. I was happy with the HJK Helsinki research pointing to a concerted 0-0 , well it ended 0-0 so the under 2.5 goals angle was also successful.
7-0 to Flora Tallin so the speculative over 8.7 goals was within grasp. 6-0 correct score was an excellent gambit and tradable .

On to today

The football teams today are pretty much ideal if you are a scrabble player,  - the Europa League takes centre stage and my research will not be in-depth. Why? Well the markets are generally illiquid meaning trading is not ideal, and the teams are relative unknowns to me , meaning I do not know their strengths/weakenesses. Remember that just because there are match on the in-play coupon, it doesn't mean we have to trade them!

Below EL stands for Europa League.

12pm - Chernomorets Odesa v FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih  - 1.27 home
Standout stats

• a ukrainian friendly is of little appeal to me I'm afraid.  If you want to play it's a case of having faith that the odds are accurate for the home side.

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3pm - Kairat Almaty v FK Kukesi  - 1.7 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities



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4pm - Tartu Santos v Tromso  - 1.15 away
Standout stats

• Estonian v Norwegian teams here 
• Both teams are well into their prospective seasons so won't want for match fitness

Tartu

• Tartu are used to winning domestically, losing only 3 matches since September 2013  - will this stand for anything against apparent stronger opponents?
• Tartu are Europa league debutants. This is a 2 legged match

Tromso

• 3 defeats in 18 matches saw both sides score. Only 1 win for Tromso in their last 4 matches.
• Have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 11 matches
• Tromso are Europa League veterans but have not won in 7 in the EL , failing to score in 6 of those 7, playing the likes of Spurs, Anzhi and Besiktas though.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• this is what we face today. Apparent imponderables. teams from leagues across Europe, and not the best teams in their leagues.
• Tromso's Europa League record is a cause for concern but look at their opponents, stronger than one of the lesser Estonian teams?
• 1.15 suggests 3/4 goals win and a possible win to nil for Tromso.

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430pm - MyPa v IF Fuglafjordur  - 1.14 home
Standout stats

• this is a Europa League match between Finnish and Faroe Islands teams

MyPa

• no win in 7 matches. Mypa has conceded in their last 7 matches
• MyPa lost to Rapid Bucharest in their last 2 Europa League matches but against apparent minnows have a decent enough record. I think a Faroe Islands team will be easier for MyPa

IF

• only 1 win in 11 in the Faroe Islands. Blimey! That's bad!
• 4 consecutive defeats in 4 Europa League matches conceding 3-5-2-3

Profitable in-play opportunities

• looks like a match for the Finnish home team to win. IF failed to score in their last 2 Europa league matches Look for an easy home win in line with 1.14 odds, 3/4 goals and a possible win to nil.

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430pm - SalPA v SoVo  - 1.4 home
Standout stats



Profitable in-play opportunities






5pm - UE Santa Coloma v Metalurg Skopje  - 1.44 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities






545pm - Botev Plovdiv v AC Libertas  - 1.08 home
Standout stats

• Botev Plovdiv's season is yet to start
• Bulgairan v San Marino side. 
• I'm not going to research this match given the pre-existing reputation of San Marino sides and the National side.
• Expect a thrashing in line with the 1.08 odds, and a goal or 2 before halftime. 4+ goals if the odds are accurate. A concerted 0-0 must be layed therefore.

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6pm - IFK Goteborg v Fola Esch  - 1.1 home
Standout stats

• this is a Europa League match between a Swedish top flight side and a Luxembourg side.
• AS with the San Marino and Andorran sides , oppose Luxembourg league sides in Europe.
• Fola Esch lost 4-0 to Elfsborg so look at that as a template today.

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7pm - Cukaricki v UE Sant Julia  - 1.1 home
Standout stats

• Europa League match between Serbian and Andorran sides. As with San Marino sides, lay these minnows both at international level and when their league teams are represented in Europe.
• No research for me given the Andorran opponents. Sant Julia have lost all 8 Europa League matches all without scoring and conceding between 2 and 5 goals.

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7pm - Hibernians v Spartak Trnava  - 1.44 away
Standout stats

• this is not THAT Hibernians , this is the Maltese Hibernians and they are playing a Hungarian side

Hibernians

• only 1 win in 8 in the Maltese league does not augur well for this Europa league match
• They have scored and conceded in 11 of their last 13 matches
• 9 defeats and a 4-4 for Hibernians when they venture into the Europa League
• They scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 EL matches

Spartak Trnava

• no draw in their last 15 matches, winning 12 of them
• were not in the EL in 2012, and have a reasonable history in the competition.They have lost to Steaua Bucharest, Lokomotiv Moscow and Levski Sofia recently in their last 10 EL matches

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Hibernians look like they will concede at some stage today so that is a reasonable angle in, particularly if they score first. Will Hibs continue to score and concede? It seems with the away side that it takes a good one to beat them, so favour them today.

7pm - RNK Split v Mika  - 1.31 home
Standout stats

• Croat v Armenian sides in the Europa League
• Mika have the apparent fitness advantage of 28 matches played this season

Split

• 4 consecutive wins in friendlies is a good pipe opener for this EL match.
• they have score dand conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches
• only 3 defeats in 16 at home is strong home form 
• only 4 Europa League matches saw wins against Domzale, a 0-0 home draw to Fulham and 2-0 away loss to Fulham

Mika

• only 2 losses in 13 matches in Armenia.
• Mika have a really poor record in the EL, only 3 wins since 2000. In their last 7 matches, they have not won, but the matches have been tight 1-1, 1-0,0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1
• 3 consecutive 1-0 losses away in the El, part of 8 consecutive away defeats for Mika

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Split have the strong home form which favours them. Mika though could be tough cookies here, but end up valiant losers? Their EL matches have been really tight, either 1-0 loss or 1-1 .The market expects Split to win here, but I would look at 2-0 max here..

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7pm - Rudar v KF Laci  - 1.38 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities






730pm - SS Folgore-Falciano v Buducnost Podgorica  - 1.3 away
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities






730pm - Vale of Leithen FC v Dumbarton  - 1.19 away
Standout stats

• Scottish Football league team v Championship team Dumbarton in a friendly
• Vale of Leithen have conceded 4-3-7 in their last 3 matches.
• Dumbarton have not had a match since May 2014

Profitable in-play opportunities

• another terrible match on a terrible In-play coupon today. Faith in the team from the better league

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745pm - Aberdeen v Daugava Riga  - 1.09 home
Standout stats

• this is a scottish v latvian Europa League match. We know Aberdeen

Aberdeen

• Aberdeen have just been playing friendlies recently
• only 1 win in 13 Europa Leauge matches for Aberdeen
• They have played the likes of Bayern, Sigma, panathaniakos so that poor run is not unexpected

Daugava Riga

• debutants to the Europa League

Profitable in-play opportunities

• faith in Aberdeen here? Not much knowledge of the away side.

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745pm - Derry v Aberystwyth  - 1.47 home
Standout stats

• Ireland v Wales in the Europa League and Derry are 17 matches into their season.

Derry

• have conceded 2 in 4 of their last 5 league matches winning only 1 match
• only 1 win in 6 matches at home in all competitions
• Derry have played some good teams in the Europa league recently, such as PSG, Skonto, CSKA Sofia, and Trabzonspor and obviously struggled.

Aberystwyth

• yet to start their season
• only 3 losses in 17 matches so are in a good vein of form domestically.
• Aberystwyth are newcomers to the Europa League

Profitable in-play opportunities

• tentative odds for Derry, but they have the match fitness , home advantage and experience of this competition against some higher level opposition.
• Favour Derry against a Welsh side who have the winning thread domestically and who may offer resistance.

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815pm - Stjarnan v Bangor City  - 1.56 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities





815pm - Zeljeznicar v FK Lovcen  - 1.71 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities