Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
I left you with my single bet of France at 1.34 to win ( 15th June)
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
The great war unplaced
Leading Light win
Colour catcher 3rd and places
The Great war the only unplaced horse yesterday
Today
845 Downpatrick
Betting forecast: 4/7 Morning Run, 7/2 Solita, 5/1 Mr Boss Man, 10/1 Honkytonktennessee, 10/1 Scolboa Rock, 12/1 Port Rock, 14/1 Thomas Ledger, 50/1 Agoodnightatspa.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Morning Run accounted for a respectable rival on her debut but it was hard not to be taken by SOLITA at Downpatrick and that performance entitles her to top billing on RPRs.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Not sure if we will get the 1.2 minimum on Morning Run to place - 1st 8/13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
655 Limerick
Betting forecast: 7/4 Doonard Prince, 5/1 Fleet Captain, 6/1 In Salutem, 6/1 Knights Templar, 8/1 Almadaa, 10/1 Postillion, 14/1 Avalanche, 16/1 Enigma Code.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have shown their best form at Dundalk and will be suited by the prevailing ground. However, DOONARD PRINCE looks the one to beat after a fine second at the Curragh. Fleet Captain could be the one for the forecast. [Alan Sweetman]
8 runners and 3 places and "the one to beat" - 3rd 6/4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All wins in straight sets apart from Halep which was a surprise. Thankfully I did not include her in my Shortlist.
Muguruza was the only loser yesterday. Kvitova retired - I don't think the match was played.
1pm - Madison Keys ( 1.53) v Heather Watson - win 2 sets
230pm - Pablo Carreno Busta ( 1.08) v Joris De Loore - win 3 sets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Finland won, scoring 4, 7 goals in the Czech ladies match, Netherlands won and Spain faltered again. Luckily I did not include Spain in my Shortlist
5pm - Italy v Costa Rica - 1.55 home - lost 0-1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHORTLIST
Arguello, Carreno Busto won. Kvitova retired so no bet. I was not interested in the Football. The Great was was unplaced.
Not a day which appeals for a treble for me. Keys and Italy are 1.55 shots which is not a nailed on price is it?
No trebles for me today.
No comments:
Post a Comment