Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Yesterday
Flatcapper placed 3rd, Mange All won, and The cornish cowboy won.
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Today
630 Naas
Betting forecast: 4/6 Cougar Mountain, 3/1 Monsieur Power, 4/1 Intisaab, 10/1 Affectionate Lady, 14/1 Edamame, 20/1 County Wexford, 40/1 Siucra, 66/1 Ftstepsinthebrogue.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact that COUGAR MOUNTAIN still holds an entry in the July Cup and the Sussex Stakes suggests that he is a colt of significant promise and a belated winning debut is probably in the offing. In saying that, he will need to be useful to account for the 87-rated Monsieur Power and the Weld newcomer Intisaab. [David Jennings]
3 places here
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240 Salisbury
Betting forecast: 11/10 Sugar Lump, 5/1 Offshore, 11/2 Three Robins, 13/2 Brazen Spirit, 8/1 Essaka, 10/1 Francis Scott Key, 25/1 Cape Point, 25/1 Cartmell Cleave, 33/1 Henrietta Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Hannon yard has a very good record in this race and has good prospects of enhancing it further, courtesy of promising Nottingham debut second SUGAR LUMP (nap), who is the one to beat even if just reproducing the form of that initial effort. Offshore is narrowly preferred to the selection's stablemate Three Robins for second. [Mel Cullinan]
Hannon/Hughes on a maiden must be respected/
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505 Worcester
Betting forecast: 10/11 Ilewindelilah, 6/1 Provincial Pride, 10/1 Reach The Beach, 10/1 Sukiyaki, 10/1 Zafaraban, 12/1 Over The Air, 14/1 Do Be Dashing, 14/1 Verdasco, 33/1 Dream Bolt.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have the potential to win similar races but it's hard to ignore the claims of ILEWINDELILAH (nap), who is 10lb ahead of the handicapper after last week's Uttoxeter success. Provincial Price is second choice.[Jonathan Neesom]
10 lb ahead of the handicapper?
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
I have had 2 successful accumulators in the last 2 days, one a 14 player accumulator, the other a 17 player accumulator, all using the limited research in this column. Some matches include straight sets wins ( yesterday's were Serena Williams, Sharapova, and Federer). The accas are paying about 5/1 which is poor value really for a 17 player accumulator, but these early round ultra short priced players are doing the business currently.
1130am - Kevin Anderson ( 1.45) v Edouard Roger Vasselin - 18th v 50th and 1-1 head to heads ( H2H)
1130am - Goerges/Groenefeld ( 1.24)v Dolonc/Seguel
1130am - Ernests Gulbis( 1.33) v Sergiy Stakhovsky - 10th v 90th 2-1 H2H
1130am - Yvonne Meusburger v Na Li ( 1.07) - 38th v 2nd
1130am - Kurumi Nara v Venus Williams ( 1.16) - 41st v 31st - I could envision a struggle for Venus today and lay that 1.16 for sure!
1pm - Casey Dellacqua v Agnieszka Radwanska ( 1.22) - 36th v 4th
1pm - Andy Murray v Blaz Rola - 1.01 - 5th v 92nd
1pm - Tim Puetz v Fabio Fognini ( 1.29) - 251st v 15th
130pm - Misaki Doi v Ekaterina Makarova ( 1.2) - 95th v 22nd
130pm - Jan Hernych v Roberto Bautista Agut ( 1.21) - 285th v 23rd
130pm - Mikhail Youzhny ( 1.23) v Jimmy Wang - 16th v 147th
145pm - Andrey Kuznetsov v David Ferrer ( 1.09) - 118th v 7th
145pm - Albert Ramos Vinolas ( 1.22) v Hugo Dellien - 99th v 318th
230pm - Grigor Dimitrov( 1.04) v Luke Saville - 13th v 236th
3pm - Victoria Azarenka ( 1.18)v Bojana Jovanovski - 9th v 45th 1-0
3pm - Marin Cilic ( 1.08)v Andreas Haider Maurer - 29th v ???
3pm - Petra Kvitova ( 1.29) v Mona Barthel - 6th v 59th 1-0
330pm - Lucie Safarova ( 1.32) v Polona Hercog - 23rd v 63rd 4-2 H2H
345pm - Sam Querrey v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ( 1.35) - 67th v 17th 1-1 H2H
430pm - Novak Djokovic( 1.04) v Radek Stepanek - 2nd v 38th 10-1 H2H
430pm - Henri Laaksonen v Thomaz Bellucci ( 1.15) - 260th v 97th
430pm - Bernard Tomic v Tomas Berdych ( 1.26) - 86th v 6th 0-1 H2H 7-6 6-7 in 2013 Wimbledon sees this 1.26 highly layable early on for Berdych. We should see a bigger price
5pm - Tereza Smitkova v Coco Vandeweghe ( 1.23) - 175th v 51th
5pm - Alison Van Uytvanck v Dominika Cibulkova ( 1.15) - 89th v 10th
545pm - Caroline Wozniacki ( 1.11) v Naomi Broady - 16th v 163rd
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FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Nothing yesterday of interest
Today is equally as sparce
5pm - Nigeria v Argentina - 1.51 away - odds a bit high for this treble exercise
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SHORTLIST
Yesterday
1145am - Albert Ramos Vinolas ( 1.19)v Martin Cuevas - 99th v 420th - big gap in rankings and the right price WIN 2 SETS
130pm - Paolo Lorenzi v Roger Federer ( 1.01) - 83rd v 4th - if 3-0 sets touches 1.2 in-play, I'd be interested - WIN 3 SETS
315pm - Samantha Murray v Maria Sharapova ( 1.02) - 247th v 5th - I doubt we'll see 1.2 ish for 2-0 sets here - WIN 2 SETS
5pm - Daniel Munoz De La Nava( 1.19) v Julian Lenz - 289th v 989th - opponent nearly 1000th in the world. 1.19 is reasonable for such a gap, but a reliance on someone 289th in the world - hmmm! He must be 289th in the world not for his consistent winning form!! - WIN 2 SETS
Nice to see all of the tennis bets coming in. Not quite a treble though although Vinolas and De La Nava would have contributed some way towards that.
Today
240 Salsibury - I hate placing my faith in maidens but this Sugar lump represents Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes who have an amazing historic record with juveniles. Place only remember
1pm - Tim Puetz v Fabio Fognini ( 1.29) - 251st v 15th - a slightly suspiciously high price for such a rankings gap. But glass half full folks will see this as value.
130pm - Jan Hernych v Roberto Bautista Agut ( 1.21) - 285th v 23rd - another where the rankings gap is quite eyecatching
3pm - Victoria Azarenka ( 1.18)v Bojana Jovanovski - 9th v 45th 1-0 - same odds as her first round . This is a decent price for such a player as Azarenka, but do remember she has been in slight decline of late, due to injury or perhaps hanging around with that DJ twat with the big hair.
Yet again, there's no football to grab us today.
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