Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
All 3 selections yesterday placed so I needn't have been so cautious
620 Leopardstown
Betting forecast: 13/8 U S Navy Seal, 5/1 Tombelaine, 5/1 Voice Of Choice, 7/1 Highland Reel, 8/1 Ardhoomey, 8/1 Taqaseem, 10/1 Swordfight, 12/1 Crescent.
8 runners, 3 places but 7 debutants in this maiden means this fav is a fav only by trainer reputation.
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720 Leopardstown
Betting forecast: 8/11 Joyeuse, 7/2 Gathering Power, 6/1 Sparrow, 8/1 Seas Of Wells, 10/1 Majestic Queen, 16/1 Morning Frost, 25/1 Body Beautiful, 33/1 Califante.
Frankel's half sister! Wow! A group 3 race means this is competitive but 8 runners and 3 places makes this good for place only betting
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420 Yarmouth
Betting forecast: 9/4 Global Leader, 6/1 Orders From Rome, 8/1 Be Royale, 8/1 Coach Montana, 8/1 Putin, 12/1 Indus Valley, 12/1 Not Rigg, 12/1 Two No Bids, 12/1 Vermuyden, 14/1 Fever Few, 16/1 Gift Of Silence, 40/1 Sairaam.
A price gapper in a handicap - the Ryan Moore factor? Placed last 4 races, a distance winner and a beaten favourite.
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
I only chose Tsonga yesterday and he won in 2 sets. A couple of the shorties lost yesterday - Gulbis, Riba, Alund. Ruby Murray won in 2 sets at 1.05, something Berdych failed to do when similarly priced.
11am - J Sousa v Federer ( 1.03) - 2-0 sets to Federer? - 47th v 4th
1230pm - Hantuchova ( 1.35) v Date-Krumm - 31st v 78th and 2-3 H2H for Date
1230pm - K De Schepper v F Lopez( 1.36) - 66th v 29th
1245pm - Karlovic ( 1.31)v Ye Lu - 33rd v 48th and 1-1 head to heads.
2pm - A Ivanovic ( 1.15) v L Davis - 13th v 61st and 1-0 H2H
215pm - Dimitrov ( 1.35) v Roger-Vasselin - 13th v 53rd - 1-0 Dimitrov
215pm - Stepanek v A Murray ( 1.12)
430pm - Nadal( 1.2) v Du Brown - 1st v 85th and a strange price for Rafa
545pm - Matosevic v Tsonga( 1.24) - 60th v 17th and 0-1 H2H
730pm - Bryan/Bryan( 1.18) v Murray/Peers
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Nothing of interest yesterday, the proximity of the World Cup I suppose accounts for that.
430pm - KTP v JIPPO - 1.24 home
9pm - Brazil v Croatia - 1.34 home - the weight of expectation may cloud judgement here. Brazil were very unimpressive in 2010 against minnows like Korea, struggling to a 1-0 win on that occasion, and you'll be sure that Croatia are not here to roll over and get their tummy tickled.
SHORTLIST
430pm - KTP v JIPPO - 1.24 home - I have the research at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk so take a look. It looks good for KTP. WIN
9pm - Brazil v Croatia - 1.34 home - as above having done the research Croatia look in poor form and Brazil have a number of consecutive wins. WIN
545pm - Matosevic v Tsonga( 1.24) - 60th v 17th and 0-1 H2H - you normally get a run for your money with Tsonga. Can he do what he did yesterday. A reasonable gap in the rankings. lost
430pm - Nadal( 1.2) v Du Brown - 1st v 85th and a strange price for Rafa - there must be a story behind a 1.2 odds bet for Rafa. Is he injured? Does he have a poor record in warm-ups? Lost
720 Leopardstown
Betting forecast: 8/11 Joyeuse, 7/2 Gathering Power, 6/1 Sparrow, 8/1 Seas Of Wells, 10/1 Majestic Queen, 16/1 Morning Frost, 25/1 Body Beautiful, 33/1 Califante.
Frankel's half sister! Wow! A group 3 race means this is competitive but 8 runners and 3 places makes this good for place only betting
Of the above, the 2 footy ones, statistically, look strong and could complete the single Tsonga bet from yesterday.
Take a chance on Nadal? Not sure if there is a back story to this 1.2 quote. Tsonga might have a tougher match today. Joyeuse is included based on reputation but this is not a given, given it is a Group 3 race.
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