Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
I hope you got your treble up before the German Cup? All winners shortlisted a lot earlier. The German Cup was 0-0 fulltime so didn't win.
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
All horses won/placed yesterday
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215 Limerick
Betting forecast: 5/4 Cloudy Rock, 11/2 Circe´s Island, 8/1 Fire Dawn, 8/1 Pros ´n´ Cons, 10/1 Triplets Joy, 10/1 Well Tuned, 12/1 Vole Au Vent, 16/1 Needed The Run, 20/1 Ballycorrigan, 20/1 Is She Home, 20/1 Somethingboutnelly, 20/1 Xifiltosa, 25/1 Howlongmore, 25/1 The Flying Doc, 50/1 The New Citizen, 50/1 Tressel, 66/1 Fainne An Lae.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CLOUDY ROCK arrived at Thurles in January with a big reputation and, although disappointing there, she made amends in a Tramore bumper last month. She is fancied to make a winning debut over hurdles at the expense of Fire Dawn, who took on some useful sorts in bumpers, and the consistent Circle's Island who looks rock solid each-way material. [David Jennings]
Big price gapper albeit in a maiden hurdle - 4TH 1.29
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240 Ripon
Betting forecast: 11/8 Flying Machine, 4/1 Secret Brief, 9/2 Jersey Bull, 12/1 Bobby´s Flyer, 12/1 Just Marion, 12/1 Mr Christopher, 16/1 Lucilla Aurelius, 16/1 Star Ascending, 25/1 Mr Shekells.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Secret Brief is a half-brother to the stable's high-class juvenile Steeler and needs careful consideration on his debut. He will need to be useful to lower the colours of FLYING MACHINE though and Richard Fahey's 2yo is taken to get off the mark at the second attempt. He only gave best to a good prospect on his Doncaster debut and the extra furlong should suit.[Paul Smith]
Price gapper albeit in a maiden. 3 places though and 2nd only a few days ago. Flying Machine to place? 2ND 1.19
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All won in 2 sets yesterday except Nadal and Serena who were nice odds for World Number 1's and both won eventually.
1230pm - Serena Williams ( 1.11) v Sara Errani - 1st v 11th 6-0 heda to hedas - WON 2 SETS
1245pm - Leonardo Mayer ( 1.26) v Yann Marti - 76th v 251st - WON 2 SETS
1pm - Amandine Hesse v Silvia Soler Espinosa ( 1.25) 221st v 115th 0-1 to Soler - WON 2 SETS
130pm - Lisa Maria Moser v Anna Lena Friedsam ( 1.11) -312th v 108th - WON 3 SETS
230pm - Jan Lennard Struff ( 1.27) v Marton Fucsovics - 74th v 238th - WON 2 SETS
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
All the conventional footy bets came in. I went over 1.5 goals in the German Cup and that failed so it's strictly match odds from now on
130pm - Standard v Genk - 1.36 home- Standard must win to ensure Champions league football. WON
2pm - Juventus v Cagliari - 1.26 home - fraught with danger as ultimately a dead rubber but the last match at home for victorious Juventus - WON
3pm - FC Basel v Lausanne - 1.26 home - WON
3pm - Metalist v Vorskla - 1.3 home - WON
330pm - Red Bull Salzburg v St Polten - 1.14 home - WON
515pm - Benfica v Rio Ave - 1.36 home - Taca de Portugal and Benfica are miles clear in head to heads - WON
745pm - AC Milan v Sassuolo - 1.29 home. Dead rubber but last Milan home match this season - WON
SHORTLIST
I made my treble yesterday before the german Cup match thankfully. How about you? All correct bar that over 1.5 goals punt
130pm - Standard v Genk - 1.36 home - must wins do win, right? WOn
515pm - Benfica v Rio Ave - 1.36 home - another slight concern here as this is a cup match but Benfica are clearly dominant in head to heads - WON
230pm - Jan Lennard Struff ( 1.27) v Marton Fucsovics - 74th v 238th - big rankings gap - WON
1245pm - Leonardo Mayer ( 1.26) v Yann Marti - 76th v 251st - another big rankings gap. These lower ranked players can be ultra inconsistent but they did ok for me yesterday. Trust the rankings?
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