Tuesday, 27 May 2014

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

All of the shortlisters came in yesterday. Djokovic won 3-0, Belgium led 2-1 at halftime so the enhanced halftime bet came in . HJK Helsinki won 1-0 and Cornet won in 2 sets.




RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.
600 Ballinrobe
Betting forecast: 1/4 Plinth, 11/2 Ningbo Express, 10/1 Rufino, 16/1 Whatareudoingtome, 25/1 Hazy Days.

Not sure if I'd trust a Hurdle on soft in Ireland. Plinth expected to win with ease. Would have to be a win only bet.

-------------------------------------------------------------
640 Hexham
Betting forecast: 1/6 Line D´aois, 10/1 Laird Of Monksford, 10/1 Nodda High Kid, 20/1 Benefit In Kind, 50/1 Falcon´s Ginger.
A hurdling debutant in heavy ground, and you want me to back him at 1/6 Hmm, may not reach the shortlist this one.
--------------------------------------------------------------
650 Huntingdon
Betting forecast: 11/10 Neverownup, 11/2 King Helissio, 11/2 Theatrelands, 17/2 Orang Outan, 14/1 Gandalfe, 16/1 Majy D´auteuil, 18/1 Fairwood Bob, 20/1 Moscow Mule.
Price gapper , and 2 consecutive wins in a handicap. Will he place?
---------------------------------------------------------------
750 Huntingdon
Betting forecast: 1/2 Turn Over Sivola, 4/1 Chat Room, 6/1 Dont Take Me Alive, 16/1 Major Martin, 20/1 Bin End.
A small field. If he completes, Turn Over should place at least. Will we get 1.2?
--------------------------------------------------------------





TENNIS SHORT PRICES
5 of the 7 matches with  1.2-1.35 shots yesterday won their matches so it's a matter of luck in avoiding those 2 defeats.
1145am - Svitolina ( 1.27) v Martic
1pm - Lajovic v Delbonis ( 1.22)
115pm - Garcia v Ivanovic ( 1.29)
115pm - Johnson( 1.33) v Lokoli
115pm -  Wozniacki ( 1.34)v Wickmayer
245pm -  Monfils v Hanescu - 1.33 Gael


FOOTBALL SHORTIES
1130am - Japan v Cyprus - 1.17 home




SHORTLIST
All winners yesterday.
115pm - Garcia v Ivanovic ( 1.29) - surely big name Anna Ivanovic can progress?
245pm - Monfils v Hanescu - 1.33 Gael -local lad at the French Open. I think Monfils odds might rise in play and he is by no means a certainty. may be worth risking the "french" aspect of this .
1130am - Japan v Cyprus - 1.17 home - surely home advantage will count for a Japanese side with a good goalscoring record at home in friendlies
Again I would leave the horse racing today, soft and heavy ground at a couple of venues and ultra short priced favourites who are expected to win easily over hurdles and chase fences. 
Looks like a riskier feel to it today. We'll see.

No comments:

Post a Comment