CREATING VALUE FROM SHORT PRICES 22/5

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

I hope you got your treble up before the German Cup? All winners shortlisted a lot earlier. The German Cup was 0-0 fulltime so didn't win.


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

2ND and unplaced yesterday so glad I didn't involve the horses in my shortlist.

4pm Ayr
Betting forecast: 13/8 Polar Forest, 5/1 Eilean Mor, 11/2 Mister Bob, 8/1 Snooker, 9/1 Uncle Brit, 10/1 Frontline Phantom, 14/1 Rockweiller, 16/1 Amazing Blue Sky, 16/1 Ebony Clarets, 18/1 Euston Square, 33/1 Ptolomeos, 40/1 Hayley.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POLAR FOREST (nap) took a long time to get off the mark but he has discovered a winning habit recently and has strong claims under a penalty for his emphatic 1m win at Newcastle on Tuesday. Eilean Mor is 0-28 on turf but he didn't get much luck when a close second over C&D last month. The other one on the shortlist is lightly raced Mister Bob who shaped with some promise at Kempton on his comeback.[David Moon]

Price gappers in class 6 handicaps do tend to place frequently.

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810 Sandown
Betting forecast: 1/3 Mutakayyef, 8/1 Savant, 10/1 Late Night Mark, 14/1 Every Time, 20/1 Bold Arial, 20/1 Green Light, 20/1 Mawaseel, 25/1 Do Wah Diddy Diddy, 100/1 Medburn Cutler.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MUTAKAYYEF should have nothing to fear returned to maiden company, unless the Stoute newcomer Savant happens to be a budding star in the making. Late Night Mark and Every Time can win races but neither are in the favourite's class.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

This would have to be a win only bet here  in a maiden.

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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All the results I could find won their matches, 2 only in 3 sets.
12pm - Julian Reister ( 1.21) v Jonathan Eysseric - 90th v 237th
1245pm - Guido Pella ( 1.3) v James McGee  - 120th v 244th
1245pm - Ivo Karlovic v Juan Monaco ( 1.3) - 49th v 54th and 1-0 Karlovic but Monaco is this tournament's defending champion hence the short price.
1245pm - Dmitry Tursunov v Ernests Gulbis ( 1.34) - 32nd v 19th and 2-1 to Dimi
1pm - Angelique Kerber( 1.27) v Karolina Pliskova - 9th v 64th and 2-0H2H
415pm - Philipp Kohlschreiber ( 1.17) v Mate Delic  - 29th v 211th
430pm - Yaroslava Shvedova v Eugenie Bouchard (1.29) - 72nd v 19th 0-1

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
12pm - Laos v Phillippines  - 1.22 away
415pm - Brazil Youth v South Korea Youth  - 1.29 home
630pm - England Youth v Qatar Youth - 1.25 home
630pm - Skive v FC Djursland - 1.1 home
7pm - Ukraine v Niger - 1.22 home



SHORTLIST
All of the tennis ones came in on the shortlist yesterday.
1pm - Angelique Kerber( 1.27) v Karolina Pliskova - 9th v 64th and 2-0H2H - favourite for the tournament and has won twice over today's opponent. - LOST
415pm - Philipp Kohlschreiber ( 1.17) v Mate Delic  - 29th v 211th  - big gap - WIN
12pm - Julian Reister ( 1.21) v Jonathan Eysseric - 90th v 237th  - slightly riskier as I don't know these 2 players but a reasonable gap in the rankings and good to see Reister top 100 and Eysseric outside the top 200  LOST
 630pm - England Youth v Qatar Youth - 1.25 home - the YOOF should do the business, that's if they don't all have asbos. - WIN
7pm - Ukraine v Niger - 1.22 home - friendlies are fraught with danger but so near to a World Cup, you suspect the Ukrainians will use this friendly well. WIN
810 Sandown
Betting forecast: 1/3 Mutakayyef, - I rarely venture into horse racing for these trebles. If this price gap is accurate , and beware it is a maiden, then the named horse should oblige. I would try though to get my treble done before relying on the horses.
1st 1.4