Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
155 bangor
Betting forecast: 8/13 Grumeti, 9/2 Seventh Sky, 6/1 Solaras Exhibition, 6/1 Veloce, 16/1 Fairyinthewind.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GRUMETI has struggled against the best hurdlers on his last two outings but the pick of his form sets a very good standard on this chase debut and he should be difficult to beat if his jumping holds up. Fellow chase debutant Solaras Exhibition is the second best hurdler in the field and Seventh Sky has the best chase form on offer.[Steve Boow]
A newcomer to the chase field and so short! Not 100% confidence bet is it? 1st 2/5
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555 Doncaster
Betting forecast: 7/4 Haxby, 4/1 Stanghow, 6/1 Caprior Bere, 6/1 Indian Keys, 6/1 Prince Bonnaire, 14/1 Bahamian Sunrise, 20/1 Freeze The Secret, 20/1 Toytown, 33/1 Areion.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAXBY travelled well before finishing second of 12 on good ground at Leicester three weeks ago, and he need only find a normal level of progression to go one better for an in-form yard that does well with juveniles on this track. Stanghow and David Brown's debutant Prince Bonnaire may reach the frame.[David Randall]
price gapper here, a maiden who races 21 days ago finishing 2nd. Surely he can run into a place with only 5 horses under 14/1 in the betting forecast - 1st 10/11
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350 Newbury
Betting forecast: 10/11 Olympic Glory, 4/1 Verrazano, 7/1 Tullius, 8/1 Montiridge, 10/1 Chopin, 12/1 Top Notch Tonto, 20/1 Sruthan, 100/1 Empire Storm.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The dual US Grade 1 dirt winner Verrazano making his turf debut is an exciting wild card for Aidan O'Brien but otherwise OLYMPIC GLORY looks a class above these rivals. That is based not just on his dominant display ahead of Top Notch Tonto in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on soft ground but also on his very close call against that multiple Group 1 winner Moonlight Cloud at Deauville when the ground was good. Best of the rest may be Chopin who is very lightly raced and may now be ready to build on the early-season promise shown as a 3yo.[Richard Austen]
We've been disappointed before with strong favourites in listed races. CAn Olympic Glory place at least under Frankie Dettori? - 1st 11/8
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250 Thirsk
Betting forecast: 7/4 Al Ghuwariyah, 5/1 Littlemissblakeney, 11/2 Tarando, 6/1 Elizabeth Ernest, 13/2 Secret Liaison, 8/1 Secret Friend, 14/1 Lily Moreton, 20/1 Fazenda´s Girl, 25/1 Sparkling Sapphire.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AL GHUWARIYAH was turned over at odds-on last time but she ran into a useful newcomer and could be hard to beat if she can recapture the form of her near-miss at Newmarket on her debut. The main form danger is Littlemissblakeney, but Tarando is open to further progress on her third start and newcomers Elizabeth Ernest and Secret Liaison are worth watching in the market. [David Moon]
2 2nd placers for this maiden is consistent, and the fav must have a chance of placing again. - non runner
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
all bar Piter won yesterday.
12pm - Marand v Soler-Espinosa( 1.2) 266th v 115th - WIN 2 SETS
1pm - Londero v St Johnson ( 1.32) - 237th v 72nd - WIN 2 SETS
1pm - Raonic v N Djokovic ( 1.15) - 10th v 2nd - 0-1 head to heads - WIN 3 SETS
330pm - Ser Williams ( 1.19) v A Ivanovic - 1st v 13th and 4-1 head to heads - WIN 3 SETS
7pm - Nadal ( 1.27) v Dimitrov - 1st v 14th and 4-0 in head to heads - WIN 2 SETS
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
The venture to these poorer leagues with only a handful of matches under their belts did not pay off as KOge lost 2-0 and Rosenborg lost and St pats drew. Really poor leagues and a cautionary tale!
5pm - Galatasaray v Kayseri Erciyesspor - 1.23 home -WIN 2-1
8pm - St Etienne v Ajaccio - 1.21 home - Ajaccio are rock bottom. Last match of the season and a St Etienne win could see them 3rd infront of their home crowd -WIN 3-1
7pm - Dortmund v B Munich - 2.1 away - over 1.5 goals is 1.2 and might be worth chancing given that 4-3-3 goals has been scored by the winner in the last 3 head to heads.
SHORTLIST
Remind me to stick with established leagues! Irish league shocking as is the Danish 1st division. Today we return to recognisable teams with better players .
8pm - St Etienne v Ajaccio - 1.21 home - Ajaccio are rock bottom. Last match of the season and a St Etienne win could see them 3rd infront of their home crowd - Motivation surely for the home side to get the 3 points to give them a shot at 3rd spot.
1pm - Londero v St Johnson ( 1.32) - 237th v 72nd - always the risk with these lower ranked players that they are inconsistent but that's a healthy rankings gap
7pm - Dortmund v B Munich - 2.1 away - over 1.5 goals at 1.2 must have a reasonable chance of coming in , in this German cup match?
250 Thirsk
Betting forecast: 7/4 Al Ghuwariyah, 5/1 Littlemissblakeney, 11/2 Tarando, 6/1 Elizabeth Ernest, 13/2 Secret Liaison, 8/1 Secret Friend, 14/1 Lily Moreton, 20/1 Fazenda´s Girl, 25/1 Sparkling Sapphire.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AL GHUWARIYAH was turned over at odds-on last time but she ran into a useful newcomer and could be hard to beat if she can recapture the form of her near-miss at Newmarket on her debut. The main form danger is Littlemissblakeney, but Tarando is open to further progress on her third start and newcomers Elizabeth Ernest and Secret Liaison are worth watching in the market. [David Moon]
2 2nd placers for this maiden is consistent, and the fav must have a chance of placing again - I like the profile here despite this being a maiden race.
350 Newbury
Betting forecast: 10/11 Olympic Glory, 4/1 Verrazano, 7/1 Tullius, 8/1 Montiridge, 10/1 Chopin, 12/1 Top Notch Tonto, 20/1 Sruthan, 100/1 Empire Storm.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The dual US Grade 1 dirt winner Verrazano making his turf debut is an exciting wild card for Aidan O'Brien but otherwise OLYMPIC GLORY looks a class above these rivals. That is based not just on his dominant display ahead of Top Notch Tonto in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on soft ground but also on his very close call against that multiple Group 1 winner Moonlight Cloud at Deauville when the ground was good. Best of the rest may be Chopin who is very lightly raced and may now be ready to build on the early-season promise shown as a 3yo.[Richard Austen]
We've been disappointed before with strong favourites in listed races. CAn Olympic Glory place at least under Frankie Dettori? It is always risky betting in listed events as all horses are class animals but if Olympic Glory is " a class above", then surely he can place?
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