Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
4 shortlisters out of 5 yesterday and I would recommend that you prioritise football and tennis over horse racing as the latter is the less predictable of the 3 , look at Timbukto yesterday! - 1 length 4th at 1.12 so he would not have been a selection anyway as the odds were too short.
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
755 Fontwell
Betting forecast: 10/11 Champagne Rosie, 5/4 Double Mead, 20/1 Destined For Fame, 20/1 Marlpit Oak, 20/1 Shanann Star, 33/1 Tandori.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last year's winner Double Mead failed to fire when behind CHAMPAGNE ROSIE on a recent clash but the selection is four years younger and might still confirm the form. This looks a match.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
a 2 horse race? bar a fall! -3rd 1.3
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625 NMKT
Betting forecast: 11/8 Venezia, 9/2 Tabreek, 5/1 Pas De Cheval, 15/2 Mustadaam, 14/1 Shining Glitter, 16/1 Igider, 16/1 Mr Smith, 20/1 Aussie Andre, 25/1 Gwafa, 25/1 Hatsaway, 25/1 Kagami, 25/1 Oriental Tiger, 40/1 Secure Cloud, 66/1 Carnt Cash Sorry, 66/1 Flight Fight.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A host of well-bred newcomers in the field, with Pas De Cheval particularly taking the eye, and the market should be informative. However, Derby entry VENEZIA sets a useful standard on his clear second in a maiden over C&D at the Craven meeting and, with experience on his side, ought to be tough to beat. Tabreek showed promise on his debut over 1m here last month and, with the step up in trip a likely plus, may be next best, ahead of Pas De Cheval. [Mel Cullinan]
Only 4 under 14/1 to dominate this maiden? - 2nd 1.29
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
Only Federer lost yesterday and the biggest rankings gap was Kuznetsov and Zvererev, which again was won by the man 600+ places above his opponent.
1245pm - J Melzer v A Murray ( 1.27) - 67th v 8th and 0-5 head to heads - WIN 2 SETS
3pm - Nadal ( 1.08)v Youzhny - 1st v 16th 10-4 head to hedas - 4 consecutive straight sets Nadal wins - WIN 3 SETS
430pm - Struff ( 1.22) v Marchenko - 74th v 172nd - WON 2 SETS
630pm - Ser Williams ( 1.08) v Lepchenko - 1st v 49th and 1-0 - WON 2 SETS
8pm - Kohlschreiber v N Djokovic ( 1.1) - 29th v 2nd and 1-3 in head to heads - Novak has dropped a set in the last 2 meetings - WON 3 SETS
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Easy day for the footy yesterday, Liverpool in hindsight looked a whopping price
330pm - Kuban Krasnodar v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.44 away 1-4 WIN
SHORTLIST
1245pm - J Melzer v A Murray ( 1.27) - 67th v 8th and 0-5 head to heads - Murray can be a little combustible but 0-5 in head to heads is what swings it. WIN
430pm - Struff ( 1.22) v Marchenko - 74th v 172nd - keeping up my theme of the match with the highest rankings difference. Faith in these tennis minnows though whose inconsistency is the reason they are ranked where they are! WIN
No research done yet but Zenit under AVB are a better side. 8th v 2nd. A win and Zenit go top. WIN
Zenit are unbeaten in 7 but scored and conceded in 6 of those. Last 3 aways were 1-2 win, 1-2 win, 1-1 draw so this might be tight.Kuban have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6, but not beaten top 10 at home.have scored and conceded v 3rd-9th inclusive at home . A hope then that Zenit score 1 more than them! I would look to trade out if Zenit score first and hope it creates an equivalent 1.2 return
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