Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
Sharapova took 3 sets yesterday but I backed her in play at 1.4 so was happy there. The 330 fakenham lost because of a faller and this happens in jumps racing, so if you want to construct your treble, then better to stick to the flat, and perhaps WIN ONLY 1.2+ in the tennis. There are plenty of winners each day. You need an element of luck making sure you choose right.
4 horse races yesterday and 3 winners and one faller. 2 football matches and 2 wins.
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
2 Unplaced from the 3 mentions. Thank goodness I shortlisted the only horse that placed.
It shows that we should not flagrantly place back every apparent price gapper.
550 Clonmel
Betting forecast: Evs Prussian Eagle, 6/4 Stirabout, 12/1 Celtic Artisan, 14/1 Brog Deas Nua, 16/1 Tonton Macoute.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRUSSIAN EAGLE (nap) cannot beat an in-form Stirabout on ratings but is readily preferred: his profile is more progressive and he can progress more now tackling this distance. [Johnny Ward]
Fran Berry v kevin Manning apparently in this 2 horse maiden? Both have recent placed form.
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225 Southwell
Betting forecast: 1/2 Saakhen, 11/2 Scoreline, 11/1 Procurer, 12/1 Naivasha, 14/1 Templar Boy, 16/1 Jiminy, 25/1 Bondi Beach Babe, 33/1 Tellatail.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAAKHEN was no match for a pair of promising sprinters at Newcastle on his stable debut a fortnight ago but he still did enough there to make him the one to beat in an uncompetitive maiden. The tongue-tie he wore in Ireland is back on now and he can prove too strong for some modest opposition - Scoreline perhaps the pick of them.[Paul Smith]
A huge price gapper here in this maiden on the fibresand -3 places available, the concern is the surface for this Southwell debutant
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255 Southwell
Betting forecast: 11/8 Meshardal, 5/1 Doctor Hilary, 8/1 Masked Dance, 10/1 Fairy Wing, 10/1 Major Muscari, 12/1 Copper To Gold, 12/1 Novalist, 16/1 Celestial Dawn, 16/1 Evens And Odds, 20/1 Partner´s Gold, 33/1 Durham Express.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Copper To Gold might do better this season and needs a look in the betting on her reappearance but MESHARDAL (nap) looks the safest option. He has taken well to Fibresand this year and the manner of his latest win strongly suggests he can overcome a 6lb penalty.[Paul Smith]
Short priced penalised horses on the all-weather have won 4 of the last 5 races over all weather , all were under evens. If Meshardal is under evens, will be make a good place only horse? 6 leb penalties usually anchor horses.
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630 Wincanton
Betting forecast: 10/11 Silsol, 4/1 Presenting The Way, 11/2 Pressies Girl, 11/2 Trickaway, 10/1 Chinatown Boy, 25/1 Back In June, 33/1 Eddy, 40/1 Hi Bronco.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has won the last three runnings of this contest and he is triply represented, with SILSOL (nap) the one to beat, particularly if there's enough rain that the ground eases. If the going stays good, Presenting The Way could be a serious threat. Trickaway and Pressies Girl can also be involved.[Steve Boow]
Paul Nicholls favourite. 13 days since last win. 3 places available
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All shorties won yesterday, with only Isner taking an extra set to win.
10am - Stephens v N Li (1.18)
1130am - Ser Williams ( 1.1) v Suarez Navarro
12pm - Guez v Schwartzman( 1.3)
2pm - Sharapova ( 1.28)v Stosur
2pm - Vinci v A Radwanska ( 1.29)
215pm - Nadal ( 1.02) v J Nieminen
245pm - Kubot v bautista Agut ( 1.17)
330pm - A Ivanovic ( 1.33) v Pavlyuchenkova
7pm - Halep ( 1.38) v Lisicki
830pm - Ferrer ( 1.28)v Isner
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
PSG and Real Madrid did not win but they scored first. The PSG match was dangerous as Monaco's earlier draw gave PSG the title before they'd even kicked a ball. Again, I only shortlisted Man City and they won 4-0
SHORTLIST
10am - Halep v Arruabarrena - 1.16 halep - 5th v 145th and 1-0 head to heads WON 2 SETS
1145am - Matosevic v Isner(1.31) - 68th v 10th - WON 3 SETS
1pm - Riske v Suarez Navarro ( 1.19) - 46th v 15th - Suarez Novarro has consistently been 1.2 for a number of days and has brought home to bacon, But how much longer can we go to the well? She will lose at some stage - WON 2 SETS
745pm - Man City v Aston Villa - 1.17 home - 4-0
510 Kelso
Betting forecast: 6/4 Nicolas Chauvin, 9/2 Toola Boola, 6/1 Doktor Glaz, 10/1 Always Tipsy, 10/1 Bishop Lightfoot, 10/1 Presently Tipsy, 10/1 The Last Leg, 14/1 Lewis, 25/1 Ski Guide, 33/1 Mick Melody, 33/1 Perfect Print, 100/1 Ginger B.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This isn't a strong race and it's hard to get away from Nicky Henderson's NICOLAS CHAUVIN, who showed enough on his debut at Ludlow (despite being beaten at short odds) to suggest he has strong claims in a race of this nature with improvement likely. He's taken to beat Toola Boola, who has shaped well on both starts. [Richard Young]
A beaten favourite 3rd, 15 days ago so strong claims here for placing? Nicky Henderson horse. This is a bumper though so could be a gambling race 1.24 to place - 3rd 1.21
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