HJK Helsinki won, and not 4/5-0 as previously, but with a 90th minute 1-0 rewarding late layers of the 0-0 or backers of HJK.
I mentioned that Viborg had not had a 0-0 at home, so laying the 0-0 late would have paid off, depending when you entered the market. Copenhagen scored 2 80th+ minute goals.
Brighton scored first yesterday but Derby responded with a goal and an own goal to lead 1-2 at halftime and fulltime. These play-offs can be either tight, nervy affairs, or goal fests. Derby were clear in the league by 13 points and that dominance showed itself. Derby continued to score and concede as they did in recent league matches.
5pm - Viborg v FC Copenhagen - 1.64 away
Standout stats
- 7 wins for Copenhagen in head to heads, and they've scored 3-3-3-4-4 in the last 5 head to heads
- 11th v 3rd. Viborg are in the bottom 2.Copenhagen are 8 points from 2nd
- 3 matches remain for both sides
- Copenhagen cannot win the title. They can come 2nd if the current 2nd mess up.
- Viborg could go 9th with 3 wins ( other results pending)
Viborg
- only 2 wins in 17 matches
- 4 losses in 5 matches
- only 1 home in in 8 came in their last home match.
- only 2 clean sheets in 18 matches
- 71% over 2.5 goals at home
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home
- no 0-0 at home
- have scored 18 of their 25 home goals in the 2nd half
Copenhagen
- only 3 defeats in 20 matches
- no win in 3, 2 draws
- only 2 wins in 6 away matches
- have failed to score in only 3 matches
- 5 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
- questionable motivation for a Copenhagen side who cannot win the title. In head to heads, I'd have that 1.64 all day. But recently, Copenhagen are not performing, away or overall.
- Viborg have only had 2 wins in 17 matches so are as trustworthy as the danish Arthur Daley.
- No 0-0 at home for Viborg is a possible angle.
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6pm - Sundsvall v Angelholms - 1.44 home
Standout stats
- the Superatten in Sweden and I won't research this match. Do note the home side are 1.44 so any surprises we can attack in-running/
745pm - Brighton v Derby - 2.52 home
Standout stats
- this is it, boys. The play-offs. The richest matches in the UK. As this is one of those " one -off" matches, I would be flogging a dead seagull if I tried to research this.
- What does logic suggest? Well in a 2 legged affair, it suggests that the home team's goal is to keep a clean sheet and to bring a lead ideally or a 0-0 into the 2nd leg, where they will hold the advantage as an away goal requires a 2 goal response.
- Derby County will be looking at that away goal, ideally 2 away goals to really give themselves a strong advantage. We have seen in 2 legged affairs that the away side can tolerate a 2-1 loss, as they have that away goal.
- Derby were 13 points clear of brighton during the season - is that a signal of a better, more consistent side?
- both sides ended the season unbeaten 3-3-2-2-4-1 scored by Derby in their last few matches, and both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 ,matches. this will suit Derby.
- both sides avoided the draw during the season home and away v top 6 sides
- good luck if you are playing today. Logic suggests a 0-0 pre match back to lay in the hope the nerves keep this tight.
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815pm - Hafnarfjordur ( FH) v Fylkir - 1.39 home
Standout stats
- Icelandic league match.
- FH have won the last 3 head to heads
- Again not a match I am keen to research here. Do note any surprises in-running.
FRIDAY 9th MAY 2014
6pm - Fenerbahce v Karabukspor - 1.53 home
Standout stats
- we saw with PSG the other day that title winners really can't be arsed once it's in the bag. 2 matches are left and fenerbahce cannot be caught. The only positive angle may be the fact that they are at home
- In head to heads, Karabukspor have actuall won the last 3 head to heads so I sniff a potential lay of the champions at such a short price
- Karabukspor are 7th currently and a win will/could take them 4th ( pending other results - there are 4 teams on 47-50 points currently with 2 matches remaining)
- as this is a dead rubber I'll just pinpoint the real eyecatching stats.
- only 1 win in 5 for Fenerbahce a coincidence? 0-0 draw last time at home may allow us to lay the 0-0 late on. They'll not want another blank at home
- Fenerbahce will want to remain unbeaten at home?
- only 1 defeat in 8 for karabukspor has included a draw and 2 away wins
- they have still not beaten teams above them away from home
- dead rubbers are, well, dead rubbers so you face the prospect of losing cash if having faith in the obvious favourite. There is a pertinent argument for the away side based on head to heads and on motivation. I would certainly be a layer of fenerbahce at odds on, and inparticular, if they score first.
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730pm - Legia Warsaw v Wisla Krakow - 1.55 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
SATURDAY 10th MAY 2014
6am - Tokushima v FC Tokyo - 1.41 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
2pm - Istra v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.48 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
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230pm - Augsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.58 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
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230pm - B Munich v Stuttgart - 1.2 home
Standout stats
- you know the drill now with bayern. They are rather difficult to read but last week served us up with a cracker away from home, with goals galore.
- Stuttgart are safe by the skin of their teeth .
- This is Bayern's last home match of the season and last match of the season, so expect a celebratory friendly like mood at home, and the expectation of a goal laden send off.
- Stuttgart shipped 6-3-2-3 against top 5 away so if Bayern can be bothered, then there'll be something like the 5/4 goals they have scored in their last 2 matches.
230pm - Hannover v Freiburg - 1.97 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
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230pm - Hertha Berlin v Dortmund - 1.52 away
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
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230pm - Hoffenheim v Braunschweig - 1.75 home
Standout stats
- 1-0 in the only time these 2 met
- this is the last match of the season and neither team gains anything. Braunschweig are down and Hoffenheim remain where they are.
- So one last reminder. Usually with Hoffenheim there's a goal at least before halftime, both teams score and over 2.5 goals comes in. That is the hope for their last match of the season as one of the best DRT teams this season reliability wise.
230pm - Leverkusen v W Bremen - 1.27 home
Standout stats
- if Schalke lose today, Leverkusen will go 3rd with a win.
- 1-0 for both sides in the last 2 head to heads. Surely needs must on this occasion?
Leverkusen
- only 1 defeat in 7 matches
- 9 over 2.5 goals matches ended with a win to nil last time out.
- draws at home only v 1st , 2nd and bottom.
- have scored in the last 10 matches overall
- 70% over 2.5 goals at home
- only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
- have scored 17 first half and 16 2nd half goals at home
Werder Bremen
- have lost 3 of their last 4 away matches
- have lost all away matches bar 1 against top 10 teams
- have conceded 3+ goals in 8 of 9 matches away to top 10
Profitable in-play opportunities
- limited research but the home team look a) motivated and b) playing a side with poor away form
230pm - Mainz v Hamburg - 1.85 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
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230pm - Schalke v Nurnberg - 1.31 home
Standout stats
- must win for Schalke to secure 3rd spot
- 0-0 last time these 2 met and 3-0 to Nurnberg before.
- 3rd v 17th. Nurnberg are down.
Schalke
- 2 losses in their last 3 matches
- Schalke lost their last home match.
- have scored 2/3 or 4 at home v 8th and lower at home.
- only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
- have scored 33 goals in total at home and 10 in the last 1/4 hour
Nurnberg
- 10 defeats in their last 11 matches and losses away v all top 7
- have conceded 23 of their 34 away goals 2nd half
- it all looks a little obvious. Motivation v lack of motivation.
230pm - Wolfsburg v Mgladbach - 1.94 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
730pm - Lech Poznan v Gornik Zabrze - 1.44 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
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