Tuesday, 6 May 2014

WEDNESDAY 7th MAY 2014

4-0 to Dinamo Kiev was a simple win. Dinamo Zagreb really surprised in the cup with their first 90th minute loss in 2+ years. I layed Rijeka very very late but Zagreb could not score.

The Elfsborg match was excellent. Mjallby scored first. Elfsborg equalised. Elfsborg won with 2 90th+ minute goals.
Monaco scored first yet Guincamp drew 1-1 and that handed PSG the title, so any involvement in the PSG match later on was unadvised in the context!
Man City did what a 1.17 side at home does. Win 4-0 . 0-0 at halftime was a slight surprise.
With St Johnstone scoring first, you could have layed them if keeping the faith in Celtic continuing to score. Indeed they did with 3 consecutive 2nd half goals. The match ended 3-3.

Well done to Sunderland, their recent form against high calibre teams was carried into this match. 2-0 final score with 2 first half goals.
Good research in the valladolid match. They do not go get spanked at home. Real Madrid scored first and with Ronaldo off, a major " get them out of the sh*t player" was missing. Valladolid equalised 2nd half and I layed the draw very very late on but as I say the guy who normally gets the goals, Ronaldo, was missing.

Onto today and it is a very unappealing day indeed. Secondary leagues throughout.

3pm - FC Brasov v Corona Brasov - 1.18 home
Standout stats

  • This is  Romanian League 1 match. This league is featured at www.soccerstats.com
  • 1-2 to FC Brasov in November 2013 saw them 0-2 up
  • this is 14th v 18th. 2 of the lesser lights in the league. Corona are on 14 points and look doomed Captain manwaring. 3rd bottom has 31 points for instance.
  • Brasov are in danger themselves and are outside the relegation/play-off places by dint of goal difference ( 5 places for relegation/play-offs)
FC Brasov
  • only 2 defeats in 8 matches came away from home. 
  • 4 consecutive home wins is good stuff
  • a mixed record at home to teams below them, with a 4-0 win, 1-1 draw and 1-3 loss. Will those 4 recent home wins help get a positive result for Brasov?
  • have scored in their last 7 home matches
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
Corona Brasov
  • only 2 wins all season
  • 3 consecutive defeats scoring 1 and conceding 15 goals
  • 10 consecutive away defeats 
  • only 4 clean sheets all season
  • have lost all away matches bar a 0-0 v 13th - playing 14th today
  • 1-0 losses away to 15th and 16th


Profitable in-play opportunities
  • famous last words. This looks rather straightforward. I suppose from a DRT perspective, we'd like to see the 0-0/1-0 loss Corona Brasov away rather than the Corona Brasov conceding 15 in their last 3 matches.
  • 1.17 as usual normally indicates 3/4 goals at least and a possible win to nil. No halftime stats but logic dictates that w should expect the strong favs to manage at least one goal
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4pm - Estonia (W) v Spain (W) - 1.01 away
Standout stats
  • You know the drill by now. Look for fanciful scorelines. Typically, unbackable teams and teams at 1.01 have put up 9-0, 11-0 scorelines, that kind of thing. If you want a play, then base it around a goals total. From a DRT perspective, we are hoping and praying for a long period of 0-0. IF that occurs, then back over 5.5 goals, over 7.5 goals or some market like that.
  • Betfair is likely to be very illiquid for these ladies, so the bookmakers or Betfair's Sportsbook is recommended to ensure you are backing at the correct odds.
  • the match here and the German match below are Women's World Cup Qualification Europe matches so expect a professional performance .
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4pm - Germany (W) v Slovakia (W) - 1.01 home
Standout stats
  • as above really with the Spanish ladies. The Fraulein today are actually unbackable. You cannot back them at Betfair. Again, think goals , goals, goals..
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430pm - HJK Helsinki v IFK Mariehamn - 1.41 home
Standout stats
  • 4 wins and a draw in the last 5 head to heads and HJK scored 6-4-5-6 in wins  - a pattern there.
  • 3rd v 1st after only 6/5 games
HJK
  • only 1 win in 4 for HJK, 2 losses , a draw and a win is not HJK of old.
  • HJK have lost and drawn in their last 2 at home
  • they've failed to score in only 1 match
  • no 0-0 at halftime yet this season
Mariehamn
  • all wins bar 1 this season
  • have scored a maximum of 2 this season
  • scored in all matches so far ( 5)
Profitable in-play opportunities

  • will HJK really not win a 3rd consecutive home match? 
  • What's will the head to heads. Will they really score 4/5 again today? 
  • it's early on in the season.
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5pm - Viborg v FC Copenhagen - 1.64 away
Standout stats
  • 7 wins for Copenhagen in head to heads, and they've scored 3-3-3-4-4 in the last 5 head to heads
  • 11th v 3rd. Viborg are in the bottom 2.Copenhagen are 8 points from 2nd 
  • 3 matches remain for both sides
  • Copenhagen cannot win the title. They can come 2nd if the current 2nd mess up.
  • Viborg could go 9th with 3 wins ( other results pending)
Viborg
  • only 2 wins in 17 matches
  • 4 losses in 5 matches
  • only 1 home in in 8  came in their last home match.
  • only 2 clean sheets in 18 matches
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home
  • no 0-0 at home
  • have scored 18 of their 25 home goals in the 2nd half
Copenhagen
  • only 3 defeats in 20 matches
  • no win in 3, 2 draws
  • only 2 wins in 6 away matches
  • have failed to score in only 3 matches
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • questionable motivation for a Copenhagen side who cannot win the title. In head to heads, I'd have that 1.64 all day. But recently, Copenhagen are not performing, away or overall.
  • Viborg have only had 2 wins in 17 matches so are as trustworthy as the danish Arthur Daley.
  • No 0-0 at home for Viborg is a possible angle.
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6pm - Sundsvall v Angelholms - 1.44 home
Standout stats
  • the Superatten in Sweden and I won't research this match. Do note the home side are 1.44 so any surprises we can attack in-running/
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745pm - Brighton v Derby - 2.52 home
Standout stats
  • this is it, boys. The play-offs. The richest matches in the UK. As this is one of those " one -off" matches, I would be flogging a dead seagull if I tried to  research this.
  • What does logic suggest?  Well in a 2 legged affair, it suggests that the home team's goal is to keep a clean sheet and to bring a lead ideally or a 0-0 into the 2nd leg, where they will hold the advantage as an away goal requires a 2 goal response.
  • Derby County will be looking at that away goal, ideally 2 away goals to really give themselves a strong advantage. We have seen in 2 legged affairs that the away side can tolerate a 2-1 loss, as they have that away goal.
  • Derby were 13 points clear of brighton during the season  - is that a signal of a better, more consistent side?
  • both sides ended the season unbeaten 3-3-2-2-4-1 scored by Derby in their last few matches, and both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 ,matches. this will suit Derby.
  • both sides avoided the draw during the season home and away v top 6 sides
  • good luck if you are playing today. Logic suggests a 0-0 pre match back to lay in the hope the nerves keep this tight.
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815pm - Hafnarfjordur ( FH) v Fylkir - 1.39 home
Standout stats
  • Icelandic league match.
  • FH have won the last 3 head to heads
  • Again not a match I am keen to research here. Do note any surprises in-running.
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