Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
Yesterday saw all horses win/place bar the 550 Clonmel . 9 out of the 10 tennis shorties won in 2 sets. All 10 won yesterday. Football wise, a full house depending on how high you went goals wise with Spain women. The German ladies scored 9 goals!!
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
2 Unplaced from the 3 mentions. Thank goodness I shortlisted the only horse that placed.
It shows that we should not flagrantly place back every apparent price gapper.
550 Clonmel
Betting forecast: Evs Prussian Eagle, 6/4 Stirabout, 12/1 Celtic Artisan, 14/1 Brog Deas Nua, 16/1 Tonton Macoute.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRUSSIAN EAGLE (nap) cannot beat an in-form Stirabout on ratings but is readily preferred: his profile is more progressive and he can progress more now tackling this distance. [Johnny Ward]
Fran Berry v kevin Manning apparently in this 2 horse maiden? Both have recent placed form. favourite unplaced
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225 Southwell
Betting forecast: 1/2 Saakhen, 11/2 Scoreline, 11/1 Procurer, 12/1 Naivasha, 14/1 Templar Boy, 16/1 Jiminy, 25/1 Bondi Beach Babe, 33/1 Tellatail.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAAKHEN was no match for a pair of promising sprinters at Newcastle on his stable debut a fortnight ago but he still did enough there to make him the one to beat in an uncompetitive maiden. The tongue-tie he wore in Ireland is back on now and he can prove too strong for some modest opposition - Scoreline perhaps the pick of them.[Paul Smith]
A huge price gapper here in this maiden on the fibresand -3 places available, the concern is the surface for this Southwell debutant -1st 1.22 win and 1.05 place
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255 Southwell
Betting forecast: 11/8 Meshardal, 5/1 Doctor Hilary, 8/1 Masked Dance, 10/1 Fairy Wing, 10/1 Major Muscari, 12/1 Copper To Gold, 12/1 Novalist, 16/1 Celestial Dawn, 16/1 Evens And Odds, 20/1 Partner´s Gold, 33/1 Durham Express.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Copper To Gold might do better this season and needs a look in the betting on her reappearance but MESHARDAL (nap) looks the safest option. He has taken well to Fibresand this year and the manner of his latest win strongly suggests he can overcome a 6lb penalty.[Paul Smith]
Short priced penalised horses on the all-weather have won 4 of the last 5 races over all weather , all were under evens. If Meshardal is under evens, will be make a good place only horse? 6 leb penalties usually anchor horses. 1st 1.59 win and 1.18 place
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630 Wincanton
Betting forecast: 10/11 Silsol, 4/1 Presenting The Way, 11/2 Pressies Girl, 11/2 Trickaway, 10/1 Chinatown Boy, 25/1 Back In June, 33/1 Eddy, 40/1 Hi Bronco.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has won the last three runnings of this contest and he is triply represented, with SILSOL (nap) the one to beat, particularly if there's enough rain that the ground eases. If the going stays good, Presenting The Way could be a serious threat. Trickaway and Pressies Girl can also be involved.[Steve Boow]
Paul Nicholls favourite. 13 days since last win. 3 places available - 1st 2.22 win and 1.18 place
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All shorties won yesterday, with only Isner taking an extra set to win.
10am - Stephens v N Li (1.18) - 17th v 2nd and no hread to heads - WIN 3 SETS
1130am - Ser Williams ( 1.1) v Suarez Navarro - 1st v 14th and 3-0 head to heads. Suarez Novarro has had a rare run of wins so is in top notch form. To end today though? - WIN 2 SETS
12pm - Guez v Schwartzman( 1.3) - WIN 2 SETS
2pm - Sharapova ( 1.28)v Stosur - 9th v 19th and 12-2 in head to heads - WON 2 SETS
2pm - Vinci v A Radwanska ( 1.29) - WON 2 SETS
215pm - Nadal ( 1.02) v J Nieminen - 1st v 57th and 7-0 to Nadal. Will he win in 2 sets? Will the 2 sets odds be 1.2 minimum? - WON 2 SETS
245pm - Kubot v bautista Agut ( 1.17) - WON 2 SETS
330pm - A Ivanovic ( 1.33) v Pavlyuchenkova - 12th v 26th and 5-0 head to heads - WON 2 SETS
7pm - Halep ( 1.38) v Lisicki - WON 3 SETS
830pm - Ferrer ( 1.28)v Isner - 5th v 10th and I see Ferrer as far too short here. He struggled last match and faces as Isner who tends to do 7-5, 7-6 type matches and whose serve is really tough to break. 4-1 though to Ferrer in head to heads. - WON 2 SETS
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
PSG and Real Madrid did not win but they scored first. The PSG match was dangerous as Monaco's earlier draw gave PSG the title before they'd even kicked a ball. Again, I only shortlisted Man City and they won 4-0
3pm - FC Brasov v Corona Brasov - 1.18 home 1-0
4pm - Estonia (W) v Spain (W) - Spain unbackable. Look to the goals bet which is 1.2 0-5
4pm - Germany (W) v Slovakia (W) - Germany unbackable. Look to the goals bet which is 1.2 - 9-1
SHORTLIST
550 Clonmel
Betting forecast: Evs Prussian Eagle, 6/4 Stirabout, 12/1 Celtic Artisan, 14/1 Brog Deas Nua, 16/1 Tonton Macoute.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRUSSIAN EAGLE (nap) cannot beat an in-form Stirabout on ratings but is readily preferred: his profile is more progressive and he can progress more now tackling this distance. [Johnny Ward]
Fran Berry v kevin Manning apparently in this 2 horse maiden? Both have recent placed form.
It's a flat maiden so hopefully there'll be no surprises. Place back the favourite to win as long as 1.2 minimum
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330pm - A Ivanovic ( 1.33) v Pavlyuchenkova - 12th v 26th and 5-0 head to heads
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