Thursday, 1 May 2014

SUNDAY 4th MAY 2014

A humdinger in Italy as Sassuolo fought for their lives and won 3-4. This match fell into my strategy of laying the away side when 0-2 or 0-3 up at halftime. Fiorentina scored the next goal and the match was 3-4 in the 75th minute allowing for a very nice shift in odds.

There's a new kid on the block. James Wilson scored twice for United as my only angle, the avoidance of a draw, came to fruition. 3-1 eventually for United.

3-0 to Napoli and laying any 0-2 scoreline? Well it was redundant as Cagliari got a red card. Napoli ended a 2 match draw sequence as well.


6pm - Fiorentina v Sassuolo - 1.63 home
Standout stats
  • this is definitely not a dead rubber!
  • an 82nd minute Fiorentina winner last time these 2 met
  • this is 4th v 18th. Fiorentina must win and hope Napoli don't in their unlikely quest for 3rd spot. Sassuolo need to win to take themselves 2 points clear of relegation
Fiorentina
  • only 2 defeats in 8 matches came v AC Milan and Roma
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches, only Roma won 0-1
  • against 11th and lower at home, Fiorentina have won 7 matches and score drawn 2.At their best , they should score 2/3 against this calibre of opponent ( ON A NORMAL DAY!!)
  • have conceded in their last 6 home matches
  • only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
  • no home 0-0
Sassuolo
  • are trying. 2 wins, a draw and a loss v Juventus in their last 4 matches see them cling to survival in a must win with only 3 matches remaining
  • Sassuolo have conceded 0-1-0-0 in their last 4 away matches, winning their last 2. This betrays their likely tactics today.
  • home and away v top 7 though, Sassuolo are yet to win, although did draw 1-1 away to 2nd and 3rd and only lost 1-0 to 5th. There is that defensive bent we see again.
  • have scored first in only 3 away matches

Profitable in-play opportunities
  • if you expect the unexpected at this time of the season, it seems you'll be greatly rewarded . Here we have Fiorentina statistically solid against teams like Sassuolo, likely to score 2/3 on a normal day
  • We have a Sassuolo side though with an obvious away ploy. Defend. It has been seen with 3 clean sheets in 4 matches and 2 consecutive wins to nil. Add to that the 1-1 draws away to 2nd and 3rd and we might see that Fiorentina's odds are far too short to begin with.
  • Statistically though, Sassuolo don't tend to score first. I would consider laying a Fiorentina 1-0 if late on.



645pm - FC Wil v Locarno - 1.49 home
Standout stats


Profitable in-play opportunities



745pm - Man Utd v Hull - 1.35 home
Standout stats
  • ahh, the false dawn! How right I was in the last match. Tonight will be a sentimental affair as it may be Ryan "Giggsy" Giggs' last home match and is Vidic's last home match 
  • 2-3 under Footballing Genius David Moyes saw United come back from 2-0 down to win
  • 7th v 15th. United have a game in hand over Spurs and 6 points to make up . Hull are not safe yet with 4 points between them and the relegation zone
  • 2 matches remain for both sides. Hull will be safe with a win.
man Utd
  • a tough game to research given the sentimental aspect of the match as the last home match in a vintage United season where a footballing genius has graced the hallowed halls of Old Trafford to leave his indelible mark on the United share price.
  • LLWWL ( L=Loss, W=Win) in the last 5 home United matches
  • When they click, United scored 4 goals in each of 3 recent wins
  • dire home form. no wins at home v top 9 and losses at home to 16th and 17th ( Hull are 15th)
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home
  • top scorer Rooney is injured
  • have scored first in only 7 of 18 home matches
Hull
  • only 2 wins in 9 matches came at home
  • have conceded 3-2-3 in their last 3 matches
  • have lost all away matches v top 8
  • and only 1 win away v top 16
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • there is no way I can be confident here. This has the feel of a testimonial match for Ryan "Giggsy" Giggs. 
  • With Rooney out, likely we'll see Welbeck or Hernandez upfront. Hull will stay up with a win so do not expect them to hand United a win
  • the avoidance of a draw seems my only strong angle in here. Lay any team 2-0 up in this match after the 2-3 earlier in the season



8pm - Napoli v Cagliari - 1.44 home
Standout stats
  • 3 matches remain and it's not game over yet for napoli who could get caught in 3rd if they lose all remaining matches and Fiorentina win all of their matches.
  • this is a dead rubber for Cagliari
  • both teams have scored in Napoli wins in the last 3 head to heads at Napoli
Napoli
  • Fiorentina play Sassuolo tonight and if Fiorentina win, Napoli will be worried if they don't win. 3rd spot should be save but it is not mathematically so.
  • only 2 defeats in 13 matches were both 1-0. 
  • 2 consecutive draws at present.
  • have beaten Juventus and lazio in the last 2 home matches
  • only losses at home v 4th and 7th
  • have score drawn at home to 13th, 14th and 16th and playing 15th today
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home is about 29% of home matches
  • have scored 18 first half and 17 2nd half goals at home
Cagliari
  • nothing really to play for, but a draw and 2 wins in their last 3 matches. Does the daft part of the season extend to today's match?
  • have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches
  • have not beaten any of the top 13 away from home but intriguingly have drawn with 2nd, 4th and 5th
  • only 1 away win
  • have conceded in their last 8 away matches
  • only 24% over 2.5 goals away from home
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away is about 47% of away matches
  • have scored first in only 2 of 17 away matches
Profitable in-play opportunities
  • May madness continued yesterday. Will it continue tonight? Napoli do ideally need to win to go some way to mathematically securing 3rd spot from a pursuing Fiorentina. 
  • Higuan has been in great recent form at home so could help matters tonight.
  • a 2 draw sequence to end for Napoli, albeit today they play a team adept at away draws v the top teams. 
  • Both teams therefore could reasonably score today so lay any 2-0. 0-2 scoreline
  • not sure about a gaol at halftime as Cagliari have had halftime 0-0's in about a half of their away matches



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