creating value 24th may

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

The 22nd May saw 2 shortlisted tennis bets fail, but the 2 footballers win and the 810 Sandown horse win at odds of 1/4 A treble was available. One of the tennis bets I warned about as 2 unknown players. As we evolve this, then, perhaps it's important to stick with tennis players who are immediately recognisable?


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

415 Beverley
Betting forecast: 4/5 Basem, 5/2 Pool House, 7/2 Crowdmania, 33/1 Surety.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Crowdmania will be dangerous if dictating at his leisure, while Pool House is worth a crack at this trip, but the interesting one is BASEM. Bred to be smart, he overcame inexperience to make a winning debut at Newmarket last month and was keeping on very strongly once the penny dropped. There's more to come from him in time and he can take this on route to better things.[Paul Smith]

Pure probability race this one. Will Basem place?
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545 Catterick
Betting forecast: 2/5 Sitting Pritty, 17/2 Goadby, 20/1 Blue Jacket, 25/1 Penny Pursuits, 50/1 Lady Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SITTING PRETTY stands out on her reappearance second in a much better maiden than this at Chester this month and though the odds are likely to be prohibitive, really should win. Bondi Beach Babe can chase her home. [Mel Cullinan]
Maiden fillies race and only 2 places. Back only on the fav?
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550 Cartnel
Betting forecast: 1/8 Volcanic, 14/1 Laird Of Monksford, 16/1 Drummers Drumming, 16/1 Raifteiri, 20/1 Macgillycuddy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VOLCANIC fluffed a good opportunity two starts ago but got back on track with a win at Bangor last time and should be far too good for today's modest opposition. Raifteiri is a fairly strong stayer and has run well here before, so may plug on to claim second.[Chris Wilson]
 1/8 shot in a novice hurdle! Yikes. Will his odds reach 1.2 before race time?
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755 Cartmel
Betting forecast: 4/7 Runswick Royal, 5/1 Sultana Belle, 5/1 Swaledale Lad, 12/1 Captain Brown, 16/1 Elsafeer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Useful hurdler RUNSWICK ROYAL lost out only narrowly after travelling strongly on his chase debut at Kelso this month and should be a tough nut to crack here. It's hard to gauge what Sultana Belle achieved when easily beating a below-par favourite on her first start over fences and a bigger threat may come from Swaledale Lad.[Chris Wilson]
Price gapper in a novices chase. Of course they have to complete!
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215 Curragh
Betting forecast: 2/7 The Great War, 100/30 Cappella Sansevero, 20/1 Sors, 22/1 Coto, 25/1 Primo Uomo, 33/1 Blackbriar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fascinating showdown in prospect between THE GREAT WAR and Cappella Sansevero, both two from two and looking smart in the process. Aidan O'Brien has won this contest for three of the last four years and, arguably, none of those winners were as exciting as his War Front colt who has barely come off the bridle so far and should complete the hat-trick here, thus booking his boarding pass to Royal Ascot. The remaining quartet look to battle for third. [David Jennings]
A showdown? 2 horse race> Cappella therefore the value in the place only market?
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320 Curragh
Betting forecast: 4/6 Kingman, 6/1 Mustajeeb, 6/1 War Command, 7/1 Shifting Power, 20/1 Big Time, 20/1 Great White Eagle, 20/1 Obliterator, 25/1 Michaelmas, 28/1 Johann Strauss, 33/1 Prince Of All, 40/1 Fountain Of Youth, 66/1 Mandatario, 200/1 Davids Park, 200/1 Dolce N Karama.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KINGMAN (nap) had his reputation dented at Newmarket but his surprise conqueror there, Night Of Thunder, sidesteps the Irish equivalent and the impressive Greenham winner is very hard to oppose in his absence. He looked every inch a top-notch miler at Newbury and today's course and conditions should see him at his best. It could be a 1-2 for the visitors as the straightforward Shifting Power is likely to be prominent from the outset and can repel all challengers bar the selection. War Command, who boasts a 3l win over Mustajeeb in the Futurity Stakes here last August, is expected to lead home the Irish challenge. [David Jennings]

Kingsman to place here?
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535 Ffos las
Betting forecast: 6/4 Air Of Glory, 2/1 Verano, 11/4 Azabitmour, 8/1 Ghost Runner, 33/1 Scripturist, 66/1 Kims Quest, 66/1 Mountain Of Angels.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Azabitmour really needs taking on under his penalty and the obvious alternative is AIR OF GLORY, a maiden winner for Godolphin with more than enough presence about him to make a career out of jumping. Verano is the other to bear in mind, with this probably his easiest assignment to date.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 horse race here for 2 places?
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
11am - Kohlschreiber v Karlovic - 1.29 home
1130am - Bua/Seguel v Barty/Dellacqua - 1.21 away
130pm - Delbonis v Gulbis - 1.37 away

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
1230pm - Shakhter Karagandy v FC Taraz - 1.31 home
2pm - Marienlyst v AC Horsens - 1.28 away
3pm - England U19 v Montenegro U19 - 1.35 home





SHORTLIST
22nd May 2014 - Kerber lost, Kohlshreiber won, Reister lost, England Youth won, Ukraine won, Mutakayyef won.
2pm - Marienlyst v AC Horsens - 1.28 away - Danish 2nd tier I believe and Marienlyst are hopelessly adrift. No research done though.
2pm Curragh  - is this between Great War and Capella Sansevero? Can we back either of these 2 to place, ideally the one nearer to 1.3?
320 Curragh - Kingsman to place only. We have seen before that high class races create inherent competitiveness but this looks a solid favourite.

Any match featuring Ivo Karlovic could see him hard to break, so I'd be a bit retiscent putting up Kohlschreiber at 1.3. We will see his odds rise in play I'd suspect as at least one set should end as a tie break.Maybe you'd want to back Kohlscheirber at better odds in-play? Or Lay 2-0 sets Karlovic if the lay odds equate to a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.33 payout?