Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
4 shortlists yesterday, all of which won so I was pleased with that. Milos Raonic is on the up, and Suarez-Novarro is in rare form, only losing to Serena Williams recently. Final Pass won and Austria Lustenau came from behind to win 2-1
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
545 Naas
Betting forecast: 8/13 Timbuktu, 9/2 Icy Lady, 6/1 Queen Anne, 8/1 She´s A Pistol, 10/1 Simply A Star, 20/1 Blue Fragrance, 33/1 Dainty Dancer, 66/1 Madame Nobel, 66/1 Windsor Higgins.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIMBUKTU should be very hard to beat after the experience gained here last month and she can book her Royal Ascot ticket. Icy Lady and Queen Anne hold obvious place credentials while She's A Pistol looks the most interesting of the other debutantes. [Alan Hewison]
A maiden and an Aidan O'Brien horse as favourite - ran 16 days ago and came 2nd as a beaten favourite
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615 Naas
Betting forecast: 4/9 War Envoy, 4/1 Cappella Sansevero, 12/1 Dick Whittington, 14/1 Intense Style, 16/1 Toscanini, 33/1 Lupie, 50/1 Yulong Xiongba.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WAR ENVOY is bred to want summer ground so, if any "soft" remains in the going by kick-off, it is not inconceivable he may be beatable. Such was the impression he made on his debut here, in which a useful stablemate of Cappella Sansevero was made to look second-rate, he is hard to get away from. It is difficult to weigh up what Cappella Sansevero achieved on debut and he is no good thing for the forecast, with Intense Style a decent maiden and both Dick Whittington and Godolphin's Toscanini fascinating types on paper. [Johnny Ward]
An Aidan O'Brien love-in at Naas today? war Envoy a recent impressive winner expected to go in again
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510 Uttoxeter
Betting forecast: Evs Oscar Time, 7/2 Dante´s Storm, 4/1 Bermuda Boy, 6/1 Maurisca, 25/1 Windy Arbour.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OSCAR TIME is a familiar face having twice made the frame in Grand Nationals at Aintree and it was good to see him make a successful return from an absence in a point-to-point recently. Dante's Storm rates the main threat.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
The favourite is a grand national veteran so we can assume his jumping is reliable in this hunter chase which looks a 4 horse/2 place race
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320 Sedgefield - Up and go in a Novices chase is the provisional 1/3 favourite. If 1.2 in the place only market, that would interest, otherwise it would have to be a win only bet 2nd 4/11
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
I only chose 2 tennis shortlisters yesterday and they both won.
1245pm - Chardy v Federer ( 1.12) - 47th v 4th 0-1
1pm - Halep ( 1.24) v Keys - 5th v 47th a 0-1
1215pm - Dimitrov ( 1.17)v Karlovic - 14th v 52nd 0-1 to Karlovic and what a surprise, 2 7-6 sets!
2pm - Puig v Sharapova ( 1.11) - 60th v 7th
230pm - A Ivanovic ( 1.34) v Cornet - 13th v 21st and 1-1
230pm - Ser Williams ( 1.26) v Petkovic 1st v 28th and 2-0 heda to hedas
245pm - S Robert v Gulbis ( 1.16) - 85th v 17th
430pm - A Zverev v An Kuznetsov( 1.27) -774th v 105th
6pm - Tursunov v Berdych ( 1.12) - 33rd v 6th and 1-8 in head to heads
630pm - Nadal (1.05)v G Simon - 1st v 30th and 5-1 head to heads
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
3pm - 3pm - FC Jurmala v Ventspils - 1.17 away - looks rather straightforward for the away side
530pm - Shamrock Rovers v Liverpool - 1.28 away - team news key
6pm - FS METTA LU v Skonto Riga - 1.13 away - another estonian league match and perhaps chance Skonto winning in the first half at better odds?
SHORTLIST
1pm - Halep ( 1.24) v Keys - 5th v 47th a 0-1 - one of the rising stars to avenge the sole head to head loss - WIN
2pm - Puig v Sharapova ( 1.11) - 60th v 7th chance 0-2 sets? WIN 2 sets
6pm - Tursunov v Berdych ( 1.12) - 33rd v 6th and 1-8 in head to heads - can Berdych win in 2 straight sets to enhance the odds? - WIN 2 SETS
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3pm - 3pm - FC Jurmala v Ventspils - 1.17 away - looks rather straightforward for the away side 0-6
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545 Naas - Timbuktu should do the business for Aidan O'Brien. Just hope its odds in the place only market are reasonable. unplaced
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