Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds. This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20 - lay a selection at 6.00 . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.
I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative
all bar Barcelona won for the shortlisters. The tennis continues to perform well with only one of the shorties not winning. All of the horses mentioned on Saturday won or were placed.
RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY market.
Only 1 race let me down yesterday. Do remember we are not looking to get every horse placed , rather choose the most likeliest as I did in the shortlist where the 2 chosen races saw success.
700 Catterick
Betting forecast: 1/5 Lord Of The Nile, 8/1 Danzki, 9/1 Navajo Dream, 25/1 Captain Rhyric, 25/1 Rokeby, 50/1 Haidees Reflection, 50/1 Sirnita.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An excellent opportunity for LORD OF THE NILE and, based on his second at Ripon last time on his stable/seasonal debut, it would be very disappointing if he didn't win this weak affair. Navajo Dream needs to improve if she is to be the one to chase home the selection but she has a nice pedigree and is open to such progress. Danzki is her chief rival for second place. [Ben Hutton]
massive price gapper here. Only 2 places for this maiden. 2nd 19 days ago is a positive - 1.2 to win 1ST 1.15
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330 Fakenham
Betting forecast: 13/8 Always Archie, 15/8 Oliver´s Hill, 2/1 Auld Sthock.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALWAYS ARCHIE might have been flattered by his proximity to a Nicky Henderson-trained hotpot when second at Ludlow last month but drew nicely clear of the others and can make the most of the weight he receives from his two rivals. Oliver's Hill did well to get back into the race after stumbling at Uttoxeter on Saturday and is second choice.[Chris Wilson]
This is another probability race where you have a 66% chance of any one selection placing, FALLER 1.37
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400 Fakenham
Betting forecast: 4/5 Lamb Or Cod, 13/8 Superior Quality, 8/1 Murphys Promise, 25/1 Next Exit, 66/1 First Lad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lamb Or Cod was seemingly aided by the blinkers when winning a Cheltenham handicap by 18l last month and will be tough to beat if in similar form here. However, he may have been flattered by the way that strongly run event panned out and this could be closer than the figures might suggest. SUPERIOR QUALITY shaped as though today's return to 3m will suit when second at Ascot last time and is selected to prevail.[Chris Wilson]
A potential 3 horse race for 2 places , bar falls of course. lamb or cod the 1.2 fav to place 1ST 1.16
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240 Kempton
Betting forecast: Evs Despot, 4/1 Si Senor, 8/1 Relation Alexander, 10/1 Glebe Spirit, 12/1 Half Way, 14/1 Fiftyshadesfreed, 16/1 Orlando Star, 20/1 New Row, 25/1 Bowsers Bold, 25/1 Penny´s Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to oppose DESPOT (nap) who showed marked improvement when slamming Relation Alexander and Glebe Spirit on his AW/handicap debut here nine days ago and a 6lb penalty should not stop him if reproducing that effort. Si Senor and Half Way appeal most of the remainder.[Adrian Cook]
Spotlight thinks the penalty will not stop Despot, but penalties do tend to eventually anchor winners. 10 runners and 3 places for this all weather handicap - 1.21 to place 1ST 1 .08 PLACE
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All shorties won bar Kohlschrieber yesterday, Still we are not looking for all to win, we are simply looking for one or 2 to make a treble. Tsonga and Halep won yesterday -my shortlisted players
10am - Gulbis ( 1.32) v Janowicz - 20th v 21st and 2-1 head to heads. - WIN 3 SETS
10am - J Zheng v N Li ( 1.1) - look for 0-2 sets to enhance the odds - 59th v 2nd - 3-4 in Zheng's favour - WIN 2 SETS
10am - Safarova (1.23) v Rybarikova - 26th v 39th and 1-2 for Rybar head to heads - WIN 2 SETS
1115am - G Elias ( 1.23)v Desein - 182nd v 243rd - LOST 3 SETS
1130am - Sharapova( 1.07) v McHale - 9th v 57th and 3-0 head to heads - WIN 3 SETS
1145am - Golubev v Almagro ( 1.16) - 61st v 24th 0-1 head to heads - WIN 3 SETS
1145am - Starace (1.22) v Caruso - 160th v 354th - WIN 2 SETS
1245am - Arnabaldi( 1.25) v S Diez - 177th v 212nd - WIN 2 SETS
130pm - ma Cilic ( 1.25) v J Sousa - 26th v 40th - WIN 2 SETS
215pm - Ferrer ( 1.12) v Ramos - 5th v ?? - WIN 3 SETS
330pm - Schiavone v Errani ( 1.21) - 66th v 11th 1-0 Schiavone - WIN 2 SETS
4pm - Dubarenco v Volandri ( 1.2) -358th v 92nd - WIN 2 SETS
5pm - Garcia-Lopez v Nishikori (1.26) - 38th v 12th 0-1 head to heads - WIN 2 SETS
6pm - Lepchenko v Kvitova ( 1.22) - 47th v 6th 0-4 head to heads - WIN 3 SETS
7pm - Thiem v S Wawrinka (1.17) - 70th v 3rd - WIN 3 SETS
830pm - A Ivanovic ( 1.15)v Jovanovski - 12th v 40th - WIN 2 SETS
FOOTBALL SHORTIES
Only 3 shorties yesterday, all of which won, 2 by the skin of their teeth 1-0!
11am - G-Osaka v Tokushima - 1.33 home - 3-0
745pm - Man Utd v Hull - 1.35 home - 3-1
SHORTLIST
7pm - Thiem v S Wawrinka (1.17) - 70th v 3rd
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6pm - Lepchenko v Kvitova ( 1.22) - 47th v 6th 0-4 head to heads
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4pm - Dubarenco v Volandri ( 1.2) -358th v 92nd
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1130am - Sharapova( 1.07) v McHale - 9th v 57th and 3-0 head to heads
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330 Fakenham
Betting forecast: 13/8 Always Archie, 15/8 Oliver´s Hill, 2/1 Auld Sthock.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALWAYS ARCHIE might have been flattered by his proximity to a Nicky Henderson-trained hotpot when second at Ludlow last month but drew nicely clear of the others and can make the most of the weight he receives from his two rivals. Oliver's Hill did well to get back into the race after stumbling at Uttoxeter on Saturday and is second choice.[Chris Wilson]
This is another probability race where you have a 66% chance of any one selection placing,
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700 Catterick
Betting forecast: 1/5 Lord Of The Nile, 8/1 Danzki, 9/1 Navajo Dream, 25/1 Captain Rhyric, 25/1 Rokeby, 50/1 Haidees Reflection, 50/1 Sirnita.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An excellent opportunity for LORD OF THE NILE and, based on his second at Ripon last time on his stable/seasonal debut, it would be very disappointing if he didn't win this weak affair. Navajo Dream needs to improve if she is to be the one to chase home the selection but she has a nice pedigree and is open to such progress. Danzki is her chief rival for second place. [Ben Hutton]
massive price gapper here. Only 2 places for this maiden. 2nd 19 days ago is a positive - 1.2 to win
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