HJK Helsinki won, and not 4/5-0 as previously, but with a 90th minute 1-0 rewarding late layers of the 0-0 or backers of HJK.
I mentioned that Viborg had not had a 0-0 at home, so laying the 0-0 late would have paid off, depending when you entered the market. Copenhagen scored 2 80th+ minute goals.
Brighton scored first yesterday but Derby responded with a goal and an own goal to lead 1-2 at halftime and fulltime. These play-offs can be either tight, nervy affairs, or goal fests. Derby were clear in the league by 13 points and that dominance showed itself. Derby continued to score and concede as they did in recent league matches.
As the top leagues close down, we are left with these secondary leagues and that will be the feature of future DRT bulletins. My job is to find that Hoffenheim-like team lurking in the secondary leagues, and bring them to your attention.
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5pm - Flora Tallinn v Tallinna Kalev - 1.09 home
- the estonian league is now featured at www.soccerstats.com albeit we are only 10 matches into the season
- 4-4-5-4 scored by Flora in recent head to head wins
- this is 2nd v 8th of 10 in the league. I ddon't really like small leagues as there is an air of over familiarity as teams meet each other so often
Flora tallin
Tallina Kalev
- 1.09 shots should score 4/5 goals and win to nil. That is the pattern of head to heads and could continue today
- Flora have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches
- they have been pretty poor at home with 2-3 loss, 1-0 win and 1-1 draw in their last 3 homes. A hope that they can get back on the winning trail today
- Flora have scored in all matches this season
- 7 defeats and only 1 win this season, with 2 1-1 draws.
- have lost their last 4 matches , conceding 2-4-6-3.
- only 1 clean sheet this season
- have conceded 6 goals in 3 separate matches this season, 8 in another and 4 in another, so a 1.09 Flora, if on song, could fill their boots.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- limited info and stats but a clear opportunity for the home side to get back to winning ways. Look for goals if you are playing. How I normally approach these matches is to hope for a long period of 0-0 and they back over 4.5 or over 5.5 goals ( as long as the markets offer liquidity).
- 1.09 shots are expected to get a goal before halftime too, so that's another angle in
6pm - Fenerbahce v Karabukspor - 1.53 home
Standout stats
- we saw with PSG the other day that title winners really can't be arsed once it's in the bag. 2 matches are left and fenerbahce cannot be caught. The only positive angle may be the fact that they are at home
- In head to heads, Karabukspor have actuall won the last 3 head to heads so I sniff a potential lay of the champions at such a short price
- Karabukspor are 7th currently and a win will/could take them 4th ( pending other results - there are 4 teams on 47-50 points currently with 2 matches remaining)
- as this is a dead rubber I'll just pinpoint the real eyecatching stats.
- only 1 win in 5 for Fenerbahce a coincidence? 0-0 draw last time at home may allow us to lay the 0-0 late on. They'll not want another blank at home
- Fenerbahce will want to remain unbeaten at home?
- only 1 defeat in 8 for karabukspor has included a draw and 2 away wins
- they have still not beaten teams above them away from home
- dead rubbers are, well, dead rubbers so you face the prospect of losing cash if having faith in the obvious favourite. There is a pertinent argument for the away side based on head to heads and on motivation. I would certainly be a layer of fenerbahce at odds on, and inparticular, if they score first.
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Standout stats
- this is an 8 team play-off for the single Champions League and 2 Europa League places on offer.
- I am afraid that I don't know how to research this, being as it is a set of "one off" matches between 8 sides only. This is 1st v 3rd currently and legia Warsaw are in the Champions League spot after 2 matches played.
- Faith in the odds? Little else to go on.
730pm - Caen v Tours - 1.39 home
Standout stats
- this is French Ligue 2 and there are only 2 matches remaining.
- Tour are unbeaten in 5 head to heads, winning the last head to head 2-1
- Caen have a match in hand it seems, but they cannot catch 1st place. Preservation therefore of 2nd place and automatic promotion?
- Little to aim for for Tours
Caen
- unbeaten in 12 with 6 consecutive wins
- 5 home wins in their last 6 matches
- have failed to score in only 3 matches this season
- only 2 home losses v 1st and 4th
- interestingly, draws against 7th, 8th and 10th at home, and are playing 9th today
- no defeat in 11 at home and 12 overall.
- Have scored in their last 8 home matches and last 10 overall
- only 2 0-0's all season
Tours
- no win in 7 but have 4 score draws, 3 of them 2-2 so fun and frolics with Tours it seems!
- Tours have not won away in 9 matches, score drawing their last 2 away matches
- only 5 clean sheets all season
- have scored and conceded away to 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th and are playing 2nd today. Tours actually scored 2+ goals against 3rd, 4th and 5th and only won one of those matches.
- have conceded in 16 away matches
- no 0-0 this season
Profitable in-play opportunities
- a rare foray for me into Ligue 2. The first thing I'd note is no 0-0 for Tours this season so lay any late 0-0 in this match.
- A team unbeaten in 12 meets a team with no win in 7. That's not to say we'll be discounting a draw. Tours love the score draws and to score 2+ against top 5 sides. This might be a goal fest. If Tours go ahead, lay them given their propensity to draw regularly.
730pm - Lens v Brest - 1.63 home
Standout stats
- only 1 recent head to head came in 2014, a 0-1 Lens win
- this is 3rd v 8th. Lens still need a win to ensure 3rd spot at least. Brest's season is over.
Lens
- have lost onlt 6 matches this season
- only 2 losses in 18 matches were both 1-0 away losses
- 3 home draws in the last 4 matches
- have failed to score in only 6 matches all season.
- only 1 loss all season at home was agianst 2nd bottom
- in the 13 home matches played against 15th and higher, there were 8 draws
- no defeat in 9 home matches
Brest
- only 2 losses in 14 matches were both 1-0 . So solid recent form
- 2 wins and a draw in their last 3 away matches
- 1-0 loss, 0-0, 1-0 win away to top 4 sides
- seas over for Brest but still they have decent form. If they can be bothered, then 1.63 looks too short for Lens. A dead rubber though for Brest so tough to gauge their attitude. Must win of sorts for Lens and that might instil the need. Note Brest are really tough to beat against top 4 away and all matches were under 1.5 goals. 0-0 pre match back to lay perhaps?
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730pm - Niort v CA Bastia - 1.31 home
Standout stats
- 2-2 in the Coup de France but a comfortable 3-0 win for Niort in the League most recently
- this is 5th v bottom. Niort still have a chance of 2nd or 3rd but it will need other results to go their way.
Niort
- 2 wins and a draw in their last 3 matches
- only 2 clean sheets in their last 9 matches
- only 2 defeats at home.have beaten 16th, 17th , 18th and 19th at home and are playing 20th today
- have scored in their last 5 home matches
- only 2 0-0's at halftime at home
CA Bastia
- only 4 wins all season, 3 of which were 1-0.
- Draw, Loss, Draw, Loss, Draw in their last 5 matches.
- 7 consecutive away defeats without scoring.
- only 2 away wins, both were 0-1
- 13 matches away without scoring.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- looks straightforward. Bastia cannot salvage their season and Niort still have someting to aim for. There is a possibility for a win to nil so correct score betters look at 2-0, 3-0 as possible starting points?
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- as you saw with the Brighton match yesterday, these are largely unreadable. Goal fests or nervy under 2.5 goals matches?
- I'll check the season long form and see if there are any clues, although I must say that this is a "one off" match and will be played as such rather than follow any stats angle.
- only 1 point separated these 2 in the league, unlike Derby's 13 point advantage over Brighton yesterday. So expect a far tighter affair today.
- Wigan ended the season with 4 losses in 6 matches
- QPR lost 3 of their last 4 away matches
- Interestingly these 2's last league match scorelines were 4-3 ( Wigan loss) and 2-3 ( QPR win). Is this a signal for today? Outscore your opponent? This will favour QPR for sure if they can get a couple of away goals and still lose a humdinger!
- Wigan at home to top 6 this season could not win, and there were 2 0-0's and a 1-0 loss at home -a 0-0 v QPR
- QPR away to top 6 sides failed to score this season and had 2 1-0 losses and a 0-0.
- So what's it to be? the goal fests of their last league matches, or the form v top 6 indicating a real tight encounter. A 0-0 remember suits Wigan.
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