reating value from short prices 21st may 2014

Here is an excerpt of April's article on "creating value from short prices"
Follow this step-by-step strategy to optimise your chances of collecting an evens return time after time.
1) Ensure you know your fractional and decimal odds.  This will allow you to use both the bookmakers and www.betfair.com as your resources with which to mine for 1/5, 1 /4 and 1/3 shots. For the record, a 1/5 shot is 1.20 in decimal odds. A 1 /4 shot is 1.25 in decimal odds. A 1/3 shot is 1.33 in decimal odds.
2) Don’t restrict yourself to backing selections in order to make your quota of 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shots. With our ability to lay ( as the patriarch reminds us this month), we can get the same return as a 1/5 , 1/4 and 1/3 shot by laying selections at certain prices. Keep a note of the lay odds below which correspond to the same as backing the selection.
1/5 shot is 1.20  - lay a selection at 6.00  . Backing a 1.20 shot with £100 will return £20. Laying a selection at odds of 6.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £20.
1 /4 shot is 1.25 – lay a selection at 5.00. Backing a 1.25 shot with £100 will return £25. Laying a selection at odds of 5.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £25.
1/3 shot is 1.33 – lay a selection at 4.00. Backing a 1.33 shot with £100 will return £33. Laying a selection at odds of 4.00 for £100 liability ( not stake) will return around £33.

What I am going to attempt now is to try and sniff out a 1.2, 1.25 or 1.3 shot which can be backed, or a 6.00, 5.00 or 4.00 shot which can be layed.
 I will use the techniques I suggested within the article. I hope you find it informative

I hope you got your treble up before the German Cup? All winners shortlisted a lot earlier. The German Cup was 0-0 fulltime so didn't win.


RACING POST SHORTLISTERS/PRICE GAPPERS. We look to find horses with an obvious chance of winning, but we want to back them in the TO PLACE ONLY  market.

230 Lingfield
Betting forecast: 4/5 Pack Leader, 9/2 Gold Approach, 7/1 Conquerant, 8/1 Micras, 10/1 Exclusive Contract, 20/1 Sixties Love, 25/1 Hiorne Tower, 50/1 I´m Lucy, 100/1 Haames.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PACK LEADER boasts the best form and is fancied to build on last year's promise now he is upped to a trip in keeping with his pedigree. Gold Approach was bit disappointing on her reappearance so the likes of Conquerant and Micras may give the selection more to think about. [Kevin Morley]

A maiden price gapper , last ran 238 days ago - 2ND
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430 Lingfield
Betting forecast: 7/4 Frangipanni, 5/1 Hustle Bustle, 6/1 Dreams Of Reality, 8/1 Trillian Astra, 10/1 Shushu Sugartown, 12/1 Blacke Forest, 14/1 Aristocratic Duty, 14/1 Artemis, 16/1 Nelson´s Pride, 20/1 Caminel, 20/1 Poetic Choice, 25/1 Value.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The handicap winners have all been hit with significant rises and while most have struggled, FRANGIPANNI has every chance of building on her recent C&D success as she was given plenty to do that day. There are enough handicap debutantes on show to keep this intriguing, with Dreams Of Reality and Blacke Forest the pick. [Kevin Morley]

Price gapper in a fillies handicap - UNPLACED
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TENNIS SHORT PRICES
All won in 2 sets yesterday and only one failed to do so in straight sets
11am - Karlovic ( 1.21) v N Milojevic - 49th v 581st - WIN 2 SETS
1pm - Feuerstein v Giorgi ( 1.19) - 124th v 51st - WIN 3 SETS
1pm - Gojowczyk v Bolelli( 1.34) - 111th v 151st
1pm - Kerber( 1.14) v Friedsam - 9th v 112th - WIN 2 SETS
2pm - Gicquel v A Beck ( 1.32) - 156th v 125th 1-1 -
230pm - Caro Garcia ( 1.3) v Pfizenmaier  - no info v 93rd in the world. - WIN 3 SETS
230pm - Kohlschreiber( 1.35) v Gabashvili - 29th v 60th and 1-0 head to heads. - WIN 2 SETS
415pm -  Seppi ( 1.3) v A Mannarino  - 33rd v 96th  - 0-1 in head to heads. - WIN 2 SETS
430pm - Petkovic (1.21) v V King - 29th v 68th and 2-0 head to heads. - WIN 2 SETS

FOOTBALL SHORTIES
530pm - Rakvere Tarvas v Levadia Tallinn II - 1.38 away
7pm - Viitorul Constanta v Ceahlaul - 1.35 home - last match of the season in Romania and the home side, despite being some 6 places lower than the away side, need a win. 1-0


SHORTLIST
A tough day today. The horse racing makes little appeal. Ditto the football. Can Viitorul Constanta be trusted to get the win they apparently need at 7pm? They have a draw and 2 wins in their last 3 home matches, all clean sheets so there is some hope there.
11am - Karlovic ( 1.21) v N Milojevic - 49th v 581st - this is a huge rankings gap.
1pm - Kerber( 1.14) v Friedsam - 9th v 112th  - 2 sets to love?
230pm - Kohlschreiber( 1.35) v Gabashvili - 29th v 60th and 1-0 head to heads. - I think Kohlschreiber is the favourite to win the actual tournament in Dusseldorf.