Some nice pointers in the England U19 match, especially a suggestion to back 0-0 pre match. The sole goal came in the 90th minute in Ukraine's favour.Thie replicated the last head to head and could have been a great return for late and low 0-0 layers.
Cracking research for the Silkeborg match in suggesting a lay of the team 2-0 up. Well Silkeborg took a 2-0 lead, and the match ended 2-2. There were 2 goals before halftime to make a nice profitable match there.
Both teams did score in the Cameroon match so a day I was lamenting turned out rather well on the research front.
Laying the Saudis too at a nice 3.7 paid off as Georgia won 0-2.
All in all a very pleasing day and a vindication for the importance of research, even if the matches and leagues don't make too much appeal at first glance.
330pm - Al Riffa v Malkiya Club - 1.28 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
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415pm - England Youth v Colombia Youth - 1.79 home
Standout stats
- no head to heads
England
- a 3-0 win over Qatar, 1-2 loss to Brazil and 1-1 draw with Korea so far in Toulon in 2014
Columbia
- Loss, Loss Draw for Columbia. Some collateral form with Qatar. England won 3-0. Columbia drew 1-1
- Columbia have only scored a maximum of 1 goal in their last 5 Toulon matches.
Profitable in-play opportunities
- unconvincing form for both sides but the Qatar form points to England having the better fire power? If we assume Columbia will score a maximum of 1, then their optimal scoreline will be 0-1. They have conceded in their last 4 though. Is 1-1 a good opening gambit here from a trading perspective?
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630pm - Brazil Youth v Qatar Youth - 1.18 home ( illiquid betting market)
Standout stats
- This is the Toulon Tournament
Brazil
- are unbeaten since 2013 and all appearances in this Toulon tournament has seen 7 wins and a 1-1 draw with Nigeria
- Brazil have scored 2 in each of their last 3 matches
- 2 is the maximum Brazil have managed in their 2013/2014 Toulon matches
Qatar
- Loss and 2 1-1's for Qatar in Toulon
- Both Qatari goals were penalties so if Brazil can keep possession we could get a win to nil
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the Qatari's only hope seems to be a penalty. If Brazil avoid giving away a penalty, then 2-0 to Brazil seems an obvious start
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730pm - Austria v Iceland - 1.67 home
Standout stats
- both sides are preparing for Euro qualifiers in September
- no recent relevant head to heads
Austria
- a 1-0 win over the USA and 1-1 draw with Uruguary in their last 2 friendlies.
- lost 2 recent friendlies at home v Ivory Coast and Greece. Won their last 2 home friendlies v the teams mentioned earlier
Iceland
- no draw in 12 friendlies.They have beaten Faroes ( twice) and Andorra, so that's the level we are at here.
- concede 3 goals mostly in defeats
- only 1 win in 12 away friendlies was against Andorra. have lost 7 of the last 8 away friendlies conceding 2/3/4 goals/
Profitable in-play opportunities
- why aren't Austria shorter? Iceland look there for the taking, and at their worst will concede 2-4 goals as they normally do.
- Austria have scored 0-0-1-1 in their last 4 home friendlies, that may be behind the 1.67 quote.
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730pm - Bari v Novara - 1.52 home
Standout stats
- this is a Seria B match.
- 8th v 19th. A win for either side could ensure a play-off ( Bari) or survival ( Novara)
- the last 2 head to heads have seen a 0-1 Bari win.The goals came in the 51st and 52nd minutes. If you base your conclusions on this alone, then back 0-0 pre-match and lay off at halftime, or lay Bari at 1.52
Bari
- no draw in 10 matches sees 8 wins so bang in form
- 3 home wins in 4. Lost 0-1 to 3rd at home recently.
- 5 wins in their last 6 matches
- against 10th and lower, Bari have only lost 1 match.
- 8 0-0's at halftime at home
- have scored first in 13 home matches.
Novara
- despite the need for 3 points, I suppose Bari are so short because Novara have only won 1 away match all season
- They have lost away to all of the top 6, but drawn with 7th and 9th - making things interesting playing 8th today!
- 5 losses and a 0-0 draw in their last 6 away matches
- Novara have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 2 away matches
- no win in 10 away matches
- 7 0-0's at halftime away from home
- have conceded 24 of their 36 away goals in the 2nd half
Profitable in-play opportunities
- needs must for both sides and that might lead to a match which goes against the stats - it is the last match of the season
- If we base our conclusions on stats, then the 2 0-1 head to heads, and the halftime 0-0 %'s suggest a possibility for 2nd half goals here. Ditto Novara's concession of 24 2nd half goals away. Back 0-0 pre match therefore and just hope this stays 0-0 for a while?
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730pm - Lanciano v Cittadella - 1.67 the draw
Standout stats
- Fat Tony has decreed, this match will be a draw. Quite simply you are either with the draw or against it. We had an odds on draw the other week, where one team went and scored. The other team then ensured a 1-1. The best angle in, therefore is in staying with the draw if a team scores .
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730pm - Palermo v Crotone - 1.46 the draw
Standout stats
- as above. Amazing to see a draw at shorter than 1/2 odds
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730pm - Switzerland v Jamaica - 1.27 home
Standout stats
- 2-0 to the Swiss in 2007
Switzerland
- only 1 defeat in 16 in all competitions was 2-1 v Korea in a friendly which saw the Swiss score first
- unbeaten in 7 at home
- only 3 defeats in their last 17 friendlies
- only 2 wins in their last 13 friendlies at home were against Germany and Brazil lol
Jamaica
- only 2 wins in 18 were agianst Barbados and St Lucia
- only 2 draws in their last 26 friendlies. All friendly draws since May 2009 have been 0-0
- no away draw in 15 friendlies
Profitable in-play opportunities
- the avoidance of a draw for the Jamaicans looks obvious, unless it's a 0-0
- only 2 wins in 13 home friendlies for the Swiss, but Jamaica seem a step down
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745pm - Cork City v Athlone - 1.46 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
745pm - St Patricks v Derry - 1.63 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
745pm - Waterford v Cobh Ramblers - 1.3 home
Standout stats
Profitable in-play opportunities
8pm - England v Peru - 1.29 home
Standout stats
- this friendly is at Wemb-er-ley
- there are no head to heads
England
- England have lost 2 of their last 3 friendlies v Chile and Germany
- the last few times England have scored, the goals have come in the 68th and 79th minutes, 29th, 53rd and 70th minutes, and 82nd minute. In friendlies recently, then, we expect a goal more in the 2nd half than the first?
- 2 losses to nil at home ended with an 82nd minute winner v Denmark. Are England struggling for goals, or are these friendlies being played with the mentality that they are not must wins?
Peru
- have not won in their last 6 matches in all competitions
- are unbeaten in 7 friendlies including 3 0-0's in their last 6 matches. Chile, who beat England, recently beat Peru 3-1 and 3-0
- only 2 defeats in their last 12 away friendlies. Peru have 2 0-0's in their last 3 aways
Profitable in-play opportunities
- England have tended to treat friendlies with a blase attitude so note that. England goals in friendlies have tended to be 2nd half goals mostly, so perhaps a back of 0-0 pre match in the hope the Peruvians park the Llama. They have 2 0-0's in their last 3 aways, although have been playing almost exclusively American/South American opponents.
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9pm - Spain v Bolivia - 1.16 home
Standout stats
- no recent relevant head to heads
Spain
- Since May 2012 only Brazil and South Africa have beaten Spain in all competitions
- Since March 2009, only 2 defeats at home in all competitions, and none at home since June 2010
- only 1 defeat in 16 friendlies was a 1-0 loss to South Africa in November 2013
- have not lost a home friendly since FEbruary 2008, winning all bar a 2-2 v Chile in September 2013
Bolivia
- no win in 9 in all competitions includes 4 1-1's and 2 consecutive 1-1's
- have not won an away match since March 2007
- only 1 loss in 8 friendlies was against Brazil.
- 4 consecutive away draws now in friendlies
Profitable in-play opportunities
- a hope Bolivia score first given Spain's superb home record in friendlies. That's the only way we'll eek out any value, or perhaps do a correct score? Brazil scored 4 against Bolivia.
- 1.16 suggests 3/4 goals minimum but remember this is a friendly. South Africa recently beat Spain 1-0 , and South Africa are pants.
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